The French MediPart site revealed in a lengthy investigation that the Covid-19 epidemic was expected, but all successive governments ignored it, preferring to focus on immediate emergencies, and warned the site that the same scenario will be repeated with another disaster that will inevitably occur if strict measures are not taken to prevent it.
At the beginning of his report on the topic, Matthew Sook, the site's writer, pointed to a tweet that was published by the director of the French Institute for Strategic Research at the Military School (irsem) Jean Baptets Jaggen Filmer on Twitter in March, in which he said, "The risk of a pandemic was not really expected, and in some Sometimes very carefully by future consultants during the past 15 years. "
Filmer cited documents from various institutions interested in defense affairs in both the United States and France to confirm that "the risk of an epidemic is not something that was not taken into account, on the contrary, it was one of the strategic principles in the future plans drawn up."
The writer mentioned here the French wisdom which says that "judgment means expectation." Gouverner, c'est prévoir, meaning that it is not suitable for governance who cannot expect things before they happen, to ask afterwards, saying: "Did the leaders of this world have the necessary means to address this epidemic? Better, could they have prepared better for its tragic consequences? "
In response to these questions, the author said that MediaPart, known for its deep press investigations, had widely viewed future strategic outlook documents that warned of a possible pandemic.
The site was not limited to those documents, according to the author, but expanded the scope of the research to include the observations and reports signed by French health experts, and to be able to study about 15 documents from French state institutions or international organizations that described what is happening to the world today.
An example of these documents is the French defense researcher Sheldon Dobley wrote that the US Naval War College sponsored last September (2019) a combat game centered on an infectious disease that was spreading rapidly in urban areas, and as the news site said, experts from the Research Center The American CSIS is doing an exercise simulating the epidemic caused by the emergence of a new coronavirus ...
The writer said that "forward-looking analysis" was the art of "assessing uncertainty" (évaluer l'incertitude), as defined by the former director of the French intelligence service Bernard Pagoulli failed to predict the detailed strategic events that the world witnessed at the end of the twentieth century and the beginning of the twenty-first century, such as the fall of The Berlin Wall, the September 11 attacks, and the Arab Spring, warrant caution, according to the author.
However, the author highlighted that the prospect of a global pandemic has satiated research and documentation since 2003, when SARS (acute respiratory syndrome) disease affected some Asian countries.
Here the author mentioned some serious expectations about the possibility of a global pandemic, saying that the most famous and most accurate example of this is the reports of the Center for Future Analysis of the CIA, which sounded the danger of a global pandemic in the years 2004, 2008 and 2017. The world will attest to the most likely before 2025, "the emergence of a highly contagious and contagious human respiratory disease that has no cure and could turn into a global pandemic."
In November 2015, the UK Defense and Security Strategic Review estimated that "diseases, especially the pandemic flu", would disrupt public services and the economy in the next five years. And the British biosafety strategy plan three years later stated: "Such an epidemic could cause hundreds of thousands of deaths and cost the UK tens of billions of pounds."
The French did not fall behind, but the white paper on defense and national security issued in 2008, which presents a list of risks and threats that could affect the country's security in 2008, warned of the health risks that could result in a potential epidemic. Rather, these dangers took an advanced and prominent position, as they came immediately after the terrorist and cyber attacks in the hierarchy of threats that France faces.
Thus, French analysts wrote, "For the next fifteen years," the emergence of a "very deadly grave epidemic" appears to be "improbable" and in 2013, the new white paper drew the possibility of a "very severe and very deadly epidemic."
These various studies and positions were not limited to the announcement of the upcoming disaster, but rather detailed it with the effect that, retrospectively, was extremely shocking.
In 2008, the US National Intelligence Council identified one of the "potential candidates" to cause an epidemic of "Corona virus," and experts consulted by the CIA about the epidemic believe that "it may happen first in a region of high population density and human contact." And animals, like many regions of China and Southeast Asia. "
All documents seen by MediaPart considers the globalization of exchanges an accelerating factor in the spread of the virus, which was reported by the US Strategic Analysis Center in a note in 2007.
The memo also expected that the suspension of flights would not be sufficient to contain the virus because some passengers may not have any symptoms at the beginning or the symptoms will be so light that they cannot be observed.
One of the things that worried American experts at the time was the issue of exchanging information, as countries that are a source of this virus may take weeks before their laboratories can give final results about the existence of a disease that could turn into a pandemic.
After the spread of the epidemic, French experts expected that many countries would face problems imposing quarantine due to the huge movement flow.
These documents also talked about how to face such a situation, stressing the necessity of taking collective measures to be able to control the outbreak of the pandemic, and expected that such an epidemic would lead to an economic downturn.
And on Covid-19’s lesson he taught to humankind, French intelligence officer Bruno Tetris, “The world will be better prepared for any new epidemic, but we will not necessarily be better prepared for the next event expected but not likely.”
And this officer admits that the next event may not be an epidemic, but it will be fatal, noting that the world today does not care about disasters unless it is proven that they will happen immediately, and deafening their ears about anything else, and this is what happens with the climate. "
Tertris shares this proposal, the official of the program "Intelligence and Prediction" at the French Institute for Strategic Research Paul Sharon, when he says: "It is not necessary to be a great writer to notice global warming, we all know what will happen but the consequences are very far, so we are reluctant to act ..."
Heading 2: MediaPart: Corona Virus ... It was expected 20 years ago