Analysis: This may be the biggest crisis in January

Labor law and the rules of order were one of the Social Democrats' major retreats in the January agreement. Employment security is and always has been one of the Social Democrats' most important profile issues. Often, the party, together with the trade union movement, has strongly attacked all proposals to change labor law, which has long been one of the most serious issues of conflict in Swedish politics between right and left.

But to get support from the Center Party and the Liberals in the Prime Minister's vote in January 2019, the Social Democrats and Stefan Löfven were forced to agree to a reformed labor law. According to this, the exceptions to the rules of the tour must be clearly extended.

Today, the inquiry that was commissioned to produce a bill was presented. A week ago SVT was able to reveal its content, which has triggered a canon of criticism from trade unions. Today, the Social Democrats highlighted their dissatisfaction by the Labor Minister Eva Nordmark (S) disapproving the inquiry even before the press conference. At the same time, she took the opportunity to call for new negotiations on the issue between the January parties.

Neither the Center Party nor the Liberals are interested in it. That negotiation was passed in the January agreement, they mean and want the study proposal to be implemented, unless the social partners can reach a settlement.

While the Social Democrats believe that the investigator has not followed the directives for the inquiry, both the Center Party and the Liberals are satisfied with the proposal presented.

Thus, the political battle over labor law does not seem to be over. On the contrary, it seems that Las and the rules of order can be the biggest test to date for the January collaboration. If the parties fail to agree here, the cooperation risks a crack.

However, when a bill can be placed on the Riksdag table is unclear. It is likely that the Social Democrats will at long last try to delay the implementation of these proposals, which in many parts of the labor movement are regarded as a turning point for treason. The closer we get to the next election, the weaker the opposition's incentive to propel a government crisis and possible extras.

The question is also how hard the Center Party and Liberals are prepared to push this issue. The Liberals have admittedly been hard pressed by the January cooperation, but with opinion figures clearly under the parliamentary blockade, it is not obvious to propel a government crisis. A possible extra election could send the Liberals out of Parliament.

On the other hand, this may be precisely the question the Liberals need to crack down on the January cooperation. It is no secret that the new party leader Nyamko Sabuni is not uninterested in such a development.

It is unlikely that the Center Party would be prepared to compromise particularly far. The labor market policy has become one of the party's parade issues. That one would already give up one of the most important victories in the January agreement is therefore not very likely.

Stefan Löfven sits in a fox scissors and not just short term. Sure, he can crack the January collaboration on labor law and that would probably be applauded lively in large parts of the party. The question, however, is what to do after that. The purpose of the January agreement has been to build long-term mid-term cooperation in Swedish politics, which requires that both the Center Party and the Liberals are kept in a good mood. As is well known, the Social Democrats lack majority for a left government, while the Center Party and the Liberals have the option to cooperate with the Moderates and the Christian Democrats. Should the January collaboration fail, such a development is more likely.

The Social Democrats hope is now being set for the social partners to settle on labor law. In such a case, such an agreement may replace the investigation proposal.

But whether a negotiation solution is possible is still unclear. The trade union movement is deeply divided on this issue and several unions have already jumped off negotiations with employers.