More flashes: The virus is not as dangerous as feared

At the beginning of March, worrying news came. The new disease that began to spread across the world appeared to have a mortality rate of over three percent, according to the World Health Organization. But fortunately, it was just a snapshot.

At the beginning of a pandemic, it is usually the most severely ill and those who die are first discovered. How many people get mild symptoms, and do not seek medical attention, takes longer to estimate.

As more and more mild cases are found, the mortality assessment has also changed. British researchers currently estimate a mortality rate lower than 0.4 percent, but the estimates vary widely. A compilation of several different studies on mortality results in an average figure of 0.75 percent.

In Sweden, the Public Health Agency estimates that mortality is about 0.6 percent in the Stockholm area right now, which is a high figure - three times worse than how severe seasonal influenza usually strikes - but significantly lower than WHO's fears in March.

Mortality is very low in the younger age groups and rises sharply with age. In Italy, it can be as low as 0.04 percent for people under 50 in the hardest hit areas, according to preliminary calculations.

Of course, this does not mean that covid-19 is a harmless disease. Every death is a grief.

At least 300,000 people in the world are no longer living due to the virus, and even more have become seriously ill and need hospital care. At the same time, at least 1.9 million people have recovered - a figure that is significantly higher in reality since everyone who has had a mild variant of the disease is thus not registered with the health service.

The Swedish death tolls are high and worrying, but after a peak for a few weeks in April, the death toll is now declining. The health care seems to be so far coping with the influx of patients and the intensive care units seem to be sufficient. The number of new patients enrolled in intensive care is declining.

The hunt for a working vaccine against covid-19 is progressing at record speed and this week came positive news. Eight healthy people who have been tested for an American vaccine have developed antibodies that prevent the virus from spreading in the body. And no more serious side effects have been observed in the subjects who received a lower dose of the vaccine. The results, which come from the company behind the tests, are hopeful but should be interpreted cautiously. Significantly more studies need to be done to know that the vaccine really works as intended and is safe. 

The work on finding and isolating specific antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 is also making great progress. Several research teams have already succeeded and, if the results prove to be successful, their discoveries can eventually be used to produce antiviral drugs that provide temporary protection against the virus. Such medications can be vital for risk groups pending the availability of a vaccine that works.