Among its many other effects, the Corona virus has contributed to strengthening the geopolitical rivalry that already exists between China and the United States, and this tension between the two countries has prompted many to warn of the theory of the “thucidides trap”, developed by Harvard political scientist, Graham Allison, who points out Through it to the escalation of the risk of conflict, when a rising power threatens to replace another well-established force, and Alison's theory takes its name from the name of the ancient Greek historian Thucydides, who dated the Peloponnesian War, in which the Spartans managed to defeat the state of Athens.
But there is an important detail of this historical criterion, which was not noticed even in the midst of this pandemic facing the world, which is that the factor that led to the victory of Sparta was an epidemic that resulted in the killing of about a third of the population of Athens, including the city's leader, Persilus.
The role of the epidemic in changes
Researcher Frank Snowden of Yale University believes that while military and political events may overwhelm public memory, the epidemic plays an effective role in great historical changes. For example, typhoid fever contributed to the failure of Napoleon's invasion of Russia in 1812, in Whereas, between 1918 and 1919, influenza was believed to have contributed to weakening the capabilities of the president, Woodrow Wilson, during the Versailles treaty negotiations.
But before the Corona pandemic, western societies largely forgot the structural damage any pandemic could cause, although epidemics such as cholera and malaria are now sweeping the poorest regions of the world, and AIDS and swine flu have killed Many people in recent decades.
Early warning
Scientists have always warned us, for several years, of a pandemic caused by a virus that causes respiratory disease, equivalent to the severity of the flu that occurred between 1918 and 1919, and yet we were not prepared to contain this new virus, mainly due to the neglect shown by the leaders of rich countries, In addition to the historical weakness shown by developed countries, which casts a dark shadow over the great experience of these countries in managing epidemics.
Although the Corona virus has had an impact in various fields, due to its severity and the unprecedented closure of most areas of the global economy, it undoubtedly exacerbates the social inequality that exists within and between countries. Health workers work every day, in addition to the basic employees, risk exposure to disease, often without personal protection for them, in exchange for wages that are not commensurate with their efforts. Likewise, most sectors that were affected by the economic closure are facing an uncertain future, and the challenges will be Greater in low- or middle-income countries, given their simple financial capabilities, informal economic forms, unstable healthcare systems and their lack of health facilities.
Reshaping social contracts
As a result of all these reasons, the difficulty of the current circumstances compels us to reshape our social contracts, and in developed countries, where ignoring the real economy has made inequality destroy social cohesion, the most urgent priority is to protect workers in the necessary sectors appropriately, and compensate them financially, not Just praise and praise them, and they deserve it because they bear the responsibility of keeping our lives well. To ensure a broad economic recovery, we must provide a minimum safety net for all those who lost their jobs due to the Corona virus. Of course, the less fortunate countries cannot be forgotten, and this means relieving the debt burden on them, helping them obtain medicine and medical equipment, and ensuring that they receive Corona vaccine when it becomes available.
The effective social contract must take into account the global circumstance, and the global focus must take into account climate change, and the Earth is the most precious possession of mankind together, and yet it has also been affected by the underlying causes that led us to the crisis of the Corona virus, namely the state of blindness The collective suffering of all humanity.
Ignore tips
If we had listened to the advice of epidemiologists, we would have been able to control the Corona virus outbreak faster and more effectively, yet we still have time to find solutions to the problem of global warming before we reach the point of no return, and we can find a solution in this area if we listen to The UN climate experts warn and act without delay.
In spite of everything, we are not confident that the reduction in greenhouse gas emissions as a result of the economic shutdown, even if it continues, can be sufficient to achieve the goals of the Paris Climate Agreement, and in fact the excess production associated with reopening the economy carries the risk of re-emissions to It was not the case before the Corona crisis, as it recently happened in China.
In order to avoid catastrophe, we must act immediately and firmly, as we can make the rate of global warming stabilize when the temperature and a half degree increase over what it was before the industrial levels, through coordinated and ambitious collective action led by governments and jointly completed by the private sector. For example, we must take climate warming into account when launching any economic stimulus package, to ensure its long-term viability.
Few things work
At our side
Despite the enormity of the challenge, there are still a few things that work alongside us, during the period of the Coruna epidemic, and unlike systematic shocks that occur in crises such as wars, the physical infrastructure is still intact, and the economic situation can be revitalized easily. In addition, the fight against the Corona virus resulted in the emergence of unprecedented global scientific cooperation, as Chinese scientists identified and published a series of virus genes, in addition to hundreds of new studies that we read about daily.
Here, many public and private initiatives to develop a vaccine against the virus should be commended as well, and we hope these efforts will always continue, and not only focus on the Corona virus. In 2018, about half a million people worldwide died due to cholera and malaria.
Many believe that fighting the epidemic requires retreating from national fanatics, but scientists set the most wonderful example by moving forward in cooperation, as they do not offer their research to serve everyone, but rather offer exemplary methods of cooperation that enable them to do more better, and all countries of the world, starting with the two countries, The most powerful now, is to pursue such cooperation, and to recognize that their dependence on each other is an indispensable choice. In fact, they should follow these steps because what is at stake is nothing less than the future of our planet and our survival as human beings.
Javier Solana, former High Representative for Foreign Affairs of the European Union
The social contract must take into account the global circumstance, and the global focus must take into account climate change, and the Earth is the most precious possession of mankind, yet it was affected by the reasons that led us to the crisis of "Corona".
Many see that fighting the epidemic requires retreating from national fanaticism, but scientists set the most wonderful example in advancing cooperation, as they do not offer their research in the service of everyone, but rather offer exemplary methods of cooperation.