Dr.. Osama Abu Rub

With the huge amount of news that we have received regarding the continuing epidemic of the emerging SARS Cove 2 virus that causes Covid-19 رض, good news appears that the outbreak has decreased in many parts of the world, with China declaring victory over the disease.

A report in the French newspaper "Les Echos" said that the Corona pandemic began to fade almost everywhere around the world, and if there was no unusual leap, it is expected that the number of casualties will be completely stagnated within one month.

We start with the slowdown in the daily death rate of corona deaths in France, as the French health authorities recorded 83 new deaths from the Corona virus Thursday, an increase of 0.3%, bringing the total deaths in hospitals and care homes to 28215. The rate of increase Wednesday was 0.4%.

The number of Covid-19 patients treated in intensive care units decreased to 1745, compared to 1794 the previous day. The total of those infected with Covid-19 who were transferred to the hospital was 17583, down 358 from the number recorded in the previous 24 hours.

In Italy, a large stability was recorded in the number of new deaths and infections with the Corona virus, as the Civil Protection Agency said that the country recorded 156 new deaths caused by Covid 19-19 Thursday, compared to 161 the previous day, while the daily number of new cases fell slightly to 642 From 665 the day before.

The number of people registered as carriers of the disease declined to 60,960 from 62,752 the previous day. On Thursday, there were 640 patients in the intensive care unit, down from 676 on Wednesday, a continuously declining period. Number of recovering from the virus reached 134.56 thousand compared to the previous day 132 282.

In Spain, the Ministry of Health said on Thursday that it had recorded 48 deaths from the emerging coronavirus, bringing the daily death rate to less than 50 for the first time since March 16.

In Japan, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe announced Thursday the lifting of the state of emergency imposed since the beginning of April to combat the outbreak of the Coronavirus in three regions in the west of the country.

Abe indicated that he would take similar measures next week in Tokyo and its vicinity, as well as the northern island of Hokkaido, the last to be covered.

In China, the country declared its victory over the Coronavirus, as Chinese Prime Minister Li Kiqiang declared at the opening of the annual National People's Assembly session on Friday, "We have achieved great strategic success in our treatment of the Covid-19 crisis."

In front of the three thousand lawmakers wearing masks, the Prime Minister indicated that there is still a "tremendous task" that must be accomplished in the face of the repercussions of the virus on the Chinese economy, which recorded a downturn in the first quarter of the year, which is unprecedented.

The Corona pandemic began to fade

In his report published by the French newspaper "Les Echos", the writer Yves Bourdyon said that the number of new Coronavirus infections has decreased in recent days around the world, as it did not exceed 1.2% of the total number of infected people worldwide, which exceeded the symbolic threshold of five million Official confirmed case.

This was reflected in the easing of pressure in the emergency departments, which were suffering from overcrowding. If the situation does not recur again, it is likely that the number of casualties will be completely stagnated within one month.

The author pointed to increased expectations about the end of the pandemic, according to data from the Johns Hopkins University and WorldMeter sites, the new cases of Covid-19-associated non-fatal pneumonia and the number of deaths decreased to 0.5%.

Curve flattening in Europe

The writer mentioned that these results are marred by some inconsistencies, against the background of the World Health Organization announced last Wednesday that it had recorded a record number of cases over 24 hours. This is due to the outbreak of the virus in Russia, Brazil, Saudi Arabia and the United States.

He explained that the rate of injuries recorded over the past five days was less than 2% of all previous injuries in 25 countries, with the exception of Brazil, which achieved an increase of 5%, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and Mexico by 4%, India and Russia by 3%. But the official number of confirmed cases is small compared to the total population in those countries.

In the western countries that are the most affected, the daily increase in the number of cases came as follows: 1.2% in the United States, 0.3% in Germany, and 0.25% in France, Italy and Spain.

In Switzerland, since the beginning of May, the rate of injuries was only 0.05% per day, in Belgium it was 0.6% and in the United Kingdom 1.2%.

However, the author suggested that the actual number of injuries could exceed the official statistics authorized anywhere in the world, due to the absence of extensive tests in most countries. However, there is no concrete evidence to demonstrate the large discrepancy between official statistics and the actual number of injuries.

Emergency departments

Two-thirds of the deaths are concentrated in Western countries, but the rate rises very slowly despite the peaks observed in some countries, similar to the registration of the United States on Tuesday and last Wednesday, more than 1500 deaths.

France recorded a rise in the number of deaths increased by only 0.5% over the past ten days, where the rate did not exceed a hundred deaths per day. In Spain, as is the case in all European Union countries except Italy, the virus kills dozens of people every day. As for Switzerland, there has been only one death since May 10.

The author pointed out that the number of arrivals on emergency departments and recovery patients in various countries of the world has declined, as health systems experienced a recovery compared to the peak of the crisis in the second half of March, and several countries dismantled field hospitals.

He added that the daily flow of injuries and deaths is expected to drop to almost zero within a month from now, unless the situation is exacerbated by the gradual easing of the closure procedures. But so far, there are no signs of a relapse, despite some disturbing abuses.

The situation is also reassuring in countries that were ahead of the end of the complete closure in mid-April, similar to Denmark, Austria and Norway, until Slovenia officially announced the end of the epidemic eight days from now.

Tainted retreat

The author asked about the reason for the decline of infections at this particular time, especially since epidemiologists do not find a convincing explanation. This may be due to the ability of complete closures to slow down the pace of infection, as the rate of infections has not exceeded 20% per day since the closure was imposed in most countries of the world in mid-March.

The writer said that almost no new cases were recorded in countries that imposed slight restrictions, or even that did not adopt the closures and resorted to other means such as comprehensive testing and imposing social divergence such as Sweden, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Vietnam and others.

Cases have also decreased in countries that have only imposed curfews and quarantined cities in which epidemic hotspots have been registered, such as most African and Asian countries where the virus is no longer widespread.

In the United States, the situation is no different five states that refused to closure measures on the situation in the rest of the other states.

The author stated that there is no miracle cure that can explain the reason for the reduced spread of the virus because the countries have adopted various strategies, including the adoption of chloroquine, which had a therapeutic effect, not a preventive, and therefore had no effect on infection.

The picture is not pink

However, the news is not good from everywhere, and the opinion of the French writer may be very optimistic or unrealistic. For example, Russia announced on Friday a record number of deaths in one day of 150, and the authorities announced that they were awaiting an increase in the number of deaths from Covid-19 in May / May.

In Brazil, according to official figures, the number of deaths doubled in just 11 days, to exceed 20,000 on Thursday.

Covid-19 has a larger number in Brazil, which has a population of 210 million, compared to other countries. According to official statistics, 69% of the victims of the epidemic in Brazil are 60 years or older, compared to 95% in Spain and Italy.

"Since Brazil has a younger population, it is natural that the number of infections is greater among those under the age of 60. But it is also because young people are less committed to isolation measures," notes the epidemiologist at the University of Brasilia, Mauro Sanchez, in an interview with AFP. My home. "