US congressmen have drafted a bill prohibiting the country's president from withdrawing from any international treaty without the appropriate congressional approval. This was reported by the authors of the document, representatives of the Democratic Party - Senator Edward Markey and Rep. Jimmy Panetta.
The reason for the creation of such a document was the statement of Donald Trump about his intention to withdraw the United States from the Open Skies Treaty (DON).
“President Trump’s frivolous decision to withdraw from the Open Skies Treaty will have a long-term impact on our ability to track Russian military activities that could threaten the interests of the United States and our allies. Congress can no longer delay the adoption of its constitutional powers, said Senator Marki. “For too long, the role of Congress in the issue of withdrawing from the treaties has remained uncertain.”
An explanation of the bill, posted on the Mark’s website, states that Trump’s decision deprives the United States of serious advantages.
“Withdrawing from the Open Skies Treaty or terminating it will deprive the US allies and partners of the benefits gained from conducting observation missions over Russian territory and over Eastern Ukraine occupied by Russia - missions that significantly outnumber Russian aircraft over the United States since the Treaty entered into in force, ”the report said.
Panetta, in turn, noted that the prospect of denunciation of DON is contrary to the national interests of the United States and demonstrates Washington's neglect of its allies and international treaties.
So, according to the bill prepared by the congressmen, the Minister of Defense and the Secretary of State “in consultation with the Director of National Intelligence 180 days before the start of the procedure for withdrawing from any international treaty or terminating it” will have to provide justification for such a decision. At the same time, they are obliged to prove that such a step "meets the interests of the United States in the field of national security."
- © Joshua Roberts / Reuters
The final decision on the denunciation of contracts is proposed to be assigned to Congress.
It is worth noting that last fall, against the backdrop of media reports about Trump's intention to leave DON, Jimmy Panetta had already submitted a similar bill to Congress. True, then it concerned only US membership in the Open Skies Treaty. The document noted that observation flights under the agreement contribute to increased transparency and stability in the Euro-Atlantic region. However, then the draft law was not adopted.
Hold the President
Recall that earlier the Congress tried to limit the powers of Trump in another area of foreign policy - the right to start military action. The reason for this was the escalation of tension in relations with Iran after the assassination of Iranian General Kassem Suleimani by the US military, which was carried out on the direct instructions of Trump and put the two countries on the brink of a military conflict.
However, the initiative of the congressmen was not successful: although the document was approved by both houses of the congress, the “yes” votes were not enough to overcome the presidential veto. As a result, Trump did not sign the bill.
According to Konstantin Voronov, head of the regional problems and conflicts department of the European Political Studies Department of the IMEMO RAS, the struggle of the legislative and executive branches of power in the USA for the redistribution of powers has been going on for a very long time, and under Trump it only escalated due to his impulsive actions.
“There have already been attempts to limit Trump. For example, in the case of the question of lifting the anti-Russian sanctions, they were successful: Trump cannot remove them on his own. This sluggish struggle is either calming down or aggravating. Now it has intensified not only because of the DON, but also due to the approaching presidential election. It is no accident that the law was proposed by democrats, ”Voronov explained in an interview with RT.
A similar opinion is shared by American political scientist Dmitry Drobnitsky. However, from his point of view, another attempt to limit presidential powers is doomed to failure.
“This initiative does not have great prospects, because the authors of the initiative, most likely, will not be able to secure enough votes to overcome the presidential veto,” he suggested in an interview with RT.
The sky is closing
Trump announced his intention to withdraw from the Open Skies Treaty on Thursday, explaining this step by saying that Russia allegedly does not comply with its provisions. The decision to withdraw will enter into force after six months.
“I think that we have very good relations with Russia, but Russia did not adhere (terms of the contract. - RT ). Therefore, until they stick, we will exit. But there is a very good chance that we can reach a new agreement or do something to restore this agreement, ”Trump said.
- Boeing OC-135B intended for flights under the Open Skies Agreement
- © US Air Force
In turn, the head of the US State Department, Michael Pompeo, noted that Washington could still reconsider its decision if Russia “returns to full compliance with the treaty.”
Moscow has repeatedly denied allegations of violation of the DON, pointing, in turn, to non-compliance with its terms by the American side. Moreover, as Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov previously noted, Russia is not going to react to the US withdrawing from the treaty in a mirror and will not denounce the agreement.
Recall that the Open Skies Treaty was signed in Helsinki on March 24, 1992. Today, its participants are 34 states, including the Russian Federation.
DON establishes the practice of international observation flights to inspect the military infrastructure of the participating countries. Within its framework, a quota system has been developed that allows the parties to make a proportional number of overflights. Aircraft participating in such events are equipped with special photo and video equipment, which can be supplemented by infrared linear scanning devices and side-scan radars.
According to the head of the Center for Military Diplomatic Analysis and Assessment of the League of Military Diplomats, Vladimir Vinokurov, the domestic political factor may play a role in Trump's decision to withdraw from the Don.
“Trump presents the case in such a way that DON allegedly infringes on US interests. In this context, coming out of it, he appears before the voters as a defender of national interests. This is even more true in the case of Russia. After all, anti-Russian hysteria and throws about Trump’s alleged collusion with the Russian Federation still make themselves felt. You may recall the commotion in the US media that caused our inspection plane to fly over American territory in the midst of a media campaign about "Russian intervention." There was a lot of noise, although these flights take place regularly, ”the expert explained in an interview with RT.
In turn, Konstantin Voronov suggested that the U.S. authorities may also want to untie their hands in the emerging new arms race behind the exit from the Don.
“Certain circles in the US power structures want to break free of all restrictions. The arms race is reaching a new level and is already affecting space, digital technology and hypersound. Obviously, the remaining limits from the Cold War are not satisfactory for Washington. They want to reset them, rewrite them by connecting China to them, ”the analyst explained in an interview with RT.
At the same time, Vladimir Vinokurov noted that after the US withdraws from the Don, the parties will not lose the opportunity to monitor each other's military activities, but the level of mutual trust will decrease even more.
“From a military point of view, they and we have enough means of space intelligence. Their allies in Europe should be worried - they used the opportunities and tools of this agreement more, ”the analyst noted.
"World without rules"
It is worth noting that the presidency of Trump was marked by the US withdrawal from a number of important international treaties. In addition to DON, he denounced the Paris Climate Agreement, the Intermediate-Range Missile Treaty, and a nuclear deal with Iran.
As experts predict, the next may be the Treaty on the Reduction and Limitation of Strategic Offensive Arms - START (START III). Its action expires in February 2021, and Washington still has not indicated its position regarding its extension, despite Moscow’s readiness to prolong the agreement.
- Donald Trump
- © Jonathan Ernst / Reuters
At the same time, the adviser to the US president on national security, Robert O'Brien, after Trump's announcement of leaving DON, hastened to declare that Washington did not plan to break the START.
"I do not think so. We have assembled a very strong team for negotiations, the president chose an envoy to lead this team (this is Marshall Billingsley), we have people from the Ministry of Energy and the Ministry of Defense, from the State Department, ”he told Fox News, answering a question about the intentions of the White House regarding START.
However, as analysts note, negotiations on the future fate of the START Treaty have not yet begun. Moreover, the American side puts forward obviously impracticable requirements for starting consultations on this issue. So, about two weeks ago, the special envoy of the US president for arms control Marshall Billingsley said that to discuss the treaty, the Russian Federation “should bring China to negotiations.” Moreover, China has long indicated its position on this issue: participation in such agreements does not interest it.
On May 14, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov noted that Washington was not sending any signals about plans to extend the treaty.
According to Vladimir Vinokurov, today the issue of extending the START treaty is “in limbo” because of Washington’s position.
“For the past couple of days, Americans have stated that they allegedly show interest in continuing negotiations. But they still do not remove their main condition - joining the negotiation process of China, which categorically refuses to participate in this. Given the sharp deterioration in relations between Washington and Beijing in recent weeks, hoping that this contradiction will disappear is very naive, ”the expert said.
In turn, Konstantin Voronov drew attention to the fact that the US withdrawal from the INF Treaty, the prospects for withdrawal from the Don and the possible denunciation of the START treaty undermine the international security system, which was created with great difficulty over many years.
“Such steps undermine the delicate fabric of international security in which modern humanity operates. They destroy the fragile atmosphere of trust that was previously formed between the great powers. Because of Trump's actions, a world without rules awaits us. This leads to unpredictable destabilization, which is very dangerous, ”the expert stated.