America and China .. Is confrontation inevitable?

Over the past two weeks, The relationship between the United States and China has heated up to the point that US President Donald Trump has threatened to cut off all relations with Beijing, in response to what he considers responsible for the spread of the emerging coronavirus (Covid-19) in America and the world.

This has prompted many experts and analysts - whether inside or outside America - to jump into speculation and conclusions revolving around the possibilities of a confrontation between the two big countries. The truth of the matter is that the strained relationship between Washington and Beijing did not start with the emergence or spread of the Corona virus pandemic or because of it, but rather dates back to previous years.

The American fear about the rise of China economically, militarily and technologically is not a result of today. Rather, it began warning about it at least a decade ago, particularly since the late era of former US President George W. Bush. At the time, some spoke of the necessity of a strategic shift in US foreign policy toward the Pacific region.

This is what the administration of former US President Barack Obama and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton translated in a practical way, while it was known at the time of the "Pacific axis" that was based on strengthening the commercial, economic and strategic partnership with the Pacific countries, especially those surrounding China such as Japan, the Philippines and Indonesia, as well as Australia, in an effort to contain the Chinese rise, to the extent that Obama was called the "Pacific President" given his interest in American influence there.

But what Beijing read about these American moves was different. She saw it as an indirect assault on its regional sovereignty and an attempt to limit its global influence economically, commercially and militarily. So it has begun to intensify its relations with its allies and regional partners such as North Korea and Russia, as well as extend its economic influence globally in the Middle East, Africa and Europe to Latin America.

The relations between the two countries have increased significantly since Trump came to power four years ago, which accelerated the two countries' entry into an unprecedented trade confrontation that did not subside until with the signing of a phased trade agreement four months ago, whereby China imports $ 200 billion of American exports. - especially from agricultural products - for the next two years

This contributed to the unexpected increase in the size of the Chinese economy over the past decade, until it became the second largest economy in the world after the American economy. The Chinese economy is expected to outperform its American counterpart in a few years, and this is perhaps one of the reasons behind the current tension between the two countries.

However, the tension in this relationship has increased significantly since Trump came to power four years ago, which accelerated the two countries' entry into an unprecedented trade confrontation that did not subside until with the signing of a phased trade agreement four months ago, according to which China will import 200 billion dollars. Dollars of US exports - especially of agricultural products - over the next two years.

Despite reaching this agreement that was signed at the White House in mid-January. Trump has continued to escalate his relationship with China in the past two months, for several reasons: the first; An attempt to export his catastrophic failure to deal with the Corona pandemic, which has so far left about a million and a half million injured people, and about 88,000 deaths in America. It is the largest health and humanitarian catastrophe in the history of the United States.

The pandemic has also caused huge economic losses to the American economy, resulting in approximately 35 million people losing their jobs in the past two months. Therefore, Trump, by blaming China for the spread of this virus, is trying to blame his administration and the way it deals with the virus.

The second of these reasons; It is using the Corona pandemic to pressure China and blackmail it to make more trade and economic concessions in favor of America, in a way that might help slow the growth of the Chinese economy. And thirdly; Trying to satisfy the American voter, especially the farmers, who are supposed to import $ 50 billion of their products in the next two years, and push for an increase in this value.

These farmers represent an important voting bloc for Trump as he seeks to win a second presidential term in the presidential elections scheduled for next November. Finally; There is Trump's attempt to disrupt China's economic rise by pitting the world against it, by accusing it of responsibility for the loss of hundreds of thousands of lives around the world due to the Corona pandemic.

As a businessman, Trump realizes that the growing American dependence on China economically and commercially is only achieving more Chinese rise at the expense of the United States. Therefore, his plan - since he came to power - is based on the gradual disengagement of economists, so that this dependence is reduced to the interests of his country.

China definitely does not want to enter into an economic or trade confrontation with the United States, not only because it understands that any such confrontation might slip into a strategic and perhaps military confrontation, but also for its concern for its strong economic interests with America.

This has already started by stimulating and encouraging American companies that invest approximately $ 14 billion in China to get out of there and direct their investments either to the United States or to other countries such as the Philippines and Vietnam. Also, US federal agencies have begun withdrawing American pension funds from the Chinese market in recent weeks, and may be followed by other entities in the future.

China definitely does not want to enter into an economic or trade confrontation with the United States, not only because it understands that any such confrontation might slip into a strategic and perhaps military confrontation, but also for its concern for its strong economic interests with America.

The American market is the largest market for Chinese products with a value of nearly half a trillion dollars, and it accounts for 17% of China's foreign trade. Therefore; It is difficult to expect a confrontation between the two countries, and the most that can happen is that Beijing makes some economic and trade concessions in order to satisfy and silence Trump, and this may ensure that he wins a second presidential term.

• Source: Al-Jazeera