2020 elections: Burundi on the eve of a change?

Text by: Sonia Rolley Follow | Esdras Ndikumana Follow

This Wednesday, May 20, 2020, more than five million Burundian voters are called to the polls for the first round of a presidential election without Pierre Nkurunziza. The outgoing Burundian head of state, in power since 2005, chose not to stand for re-election. Seven candidates are in the running to replace him, including two heavyweights: Évariste Ndayishimiye, candidate of the ruling party, the CNDD-FDD, and his main rival, Agathon Rwasa, former leader of the other Hutu rebellion. This high-voltage ballot takes place without an observation mission from the international community.

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"  The next few days may be difficult,  " fears a Burundian human rights activist on the eve of the presidential election. For the past five years and the last presidential election, Félix, as he wishes to be called for security reasons, has lived in Bujumbura and continues to secretly document the abuses committed by the regime of outgoing president Pierre Nkurunziza . Most of his colleagues fled after his controversial re-election in 2015.

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The Burundian head of state does not stand for a fourth term, but leaves a country still shaken by violence. Despite the announcement of this renunciation, the corpses of young people supposedly close to the opposition or to rebellions continue five years after being found almost every week. The ITEKA League (note: Dignity in Kirundi, the language spoken in Burundi), has identified 2,245 victims of repression since the start of the crisis in 2015, including 764 dead and 555 missing. This organization denounces "  a change in methodology and strategy  " since 2018. More and more bodies are found in rivers and forests, and buried by the administration without an investigation having been carried out on their identity. Since October 2017, the International Criminal Court (ICC) has opened an investigation into crimes committed in Burundi or by Burundian nationals outside their country between April 26, 2015 and October 26, 2017. Bujumbura has definitively withdrawn of this court a few days later and has not stopped protesting since.

Félix had to officially change his profession to avoid having to take the road to exile too, but he says he has never stopped receiving alert messages on cases of arrests or disappearances. "  I am used to living like this, but the police regularly come to search our home, it's super stressful,  " said the activist. Not all were so lucky. Some were killed during the height of the crisis between 2015 and 2016 and others were imprisoned for giving information about the abuses to local NGOs now in exile. This is the case of Germain Rukuki. This former accountant of Acat-Burundi was sentenced to 32 years in prison in April 2018 after a trial described as "unfair" by human rights defenders. "  It could be a step towards the change wanted by the Burundians if the new president manages to stop the violence,  " he explains. He believes in it a bit, because the ruling party, the CNDD-FDD, "  has no more money  ". The Burundian population, meanwhile, "  is fed up with an economic crisis that affects street vendors  ". The candidate and secretary general of the party in power for four years, Évariste Ndayishimiye, could, according to him, "  release the pressure a little  " to obtain the resumption of international assistance and the lifting of European sanctions against personalities of the regime. "  Otherwise, personally, I do not expect much,  " said the activist.

The fight against poverty, " real stake of the elections "

The advent of the former CNDD-FDD rebellion in power dates from 2005. Since then, the poverty rate has gone from 67% in 2006 to 74.4% in 2018, according to the latest estimates from the World Bank, and this, despite a significant slowdown in population growth. The hope created by the end of twelve years of a bloody civil war and the first democratic elections since the assassination of the first elected president Melchior Ndadaye has not translated into an improvement in the living conditions of Burundians. After the political crisis of 2015, Burundi even experienced two years of recession, in 2016 and 2017 (-0.2%), and was just beginning to return to growth. But the Covid-19 pandemic which forced it to close its borders risks endangering this fragile recovery, with a forecast of 2 to 3% growth this year, far behind the other EAC member states which are between 5 and 9%. Pierre Nkurunziza's country regularly faces shortages of foreign exchange, fuel, medicines and other basic necessities.

General Ndayishimiye is presented on his campaign posters as "The Heir" of Pierre Nkurunziza. Throughout his meetings, the CNDD-FDD candidate presented his predecessor as the one who "  laid the foundations, peace and security  ". Assures him that he will "  put Burundi on the path of development  ", going so far as to promise work to all the unemployed. "  Vote for me, " he called, " and if you can't find a job, then all the unemployed come to my house then I will find them a job."  "

In Burundi, 65% of young people are unemployed, according to the World Bank. Within the ruling party, despite often triumphant speeches, an official recognizes that "  the real stake of these elections is the fight against poverty  " even more than "the strengthening of peace  " or "  national reconciliation  ". This official pays tribute to the "  man of his word  " Pierre Nkurunziza who kept his promise not to stand in these elections and extols the merits of the regime's candidate. For him, Évariste Ndayishimiye has everything to meet these challenges. "  He has experience in practically all fields : political, military and administrative, " explains this senior Burundian official. "  He is honest. No charges of economic crime or blood lay against him.  "

General Ndayishimiye remains a man of the seraglio, former Minister of the Interior and Public Security in 2007 and today secretary general of the CNDD-FDD. The party's youth league, the Imbonerakure, is regularly accused of being a militia and committing serious human rights violations. Like many Burundians, the official, on condition of anonymity, said today that he wished "  a normalization of relations between Burundi and the European Union  ", but described as "  false perception  " the idea that his country had suffered from the suspension of cooperation with its main traditional donors and today suffers cruelly from the lack of foreign investment and foreign exchange. "  Burundi has remained open to all other countries,  " he said. “  The Chinese and other Asians, the Turks, the Russians and even some Europeans have invested in Burundi. Our officials are paid every 25th of the month.  "

A possible opening of the country " in the medium term " ?

An intellectual from the ruling party paints a more pessimistic picture: “  We cannot hide it, there have been no foreign investments for five years and the country depended mainly on foreign aid. Unemployment has exploded.  This framework cites as an example the hotels and restaurants of Bujumbura "  almost deserted  ", the closure of NGOs providing jobs and the production of coffee "  at a standstill and very badly managed since the liberalization of the sector  ". Even peacekeeping operations where Burundi still had soldiers deployed are in the process of downsizing.

The main sources of Burundi's foreign exchange have almost entirely dried up. This situation has had dramatic consequences for a country essentially oriented towards subsistence farming, but which depends on imports for everything else. “  The remaining resources are the subject of a real rush. Even the party will not be able to hire those who come to it,  ”deplores this CNDD-FDD executive. “  There will be no change in the short term, Pierre Nkurunziza is still at the head of the country. Certain initiatives could be intimidated by his presence,  ”explains this framework. "  He is popular, he remains the guide of patriotism, a title guaranteed to him by law, it is not possible to make decisions at 180 °.  According to him, the decision to close the country "  was not made by the president, but by a system  ". When his colleague in office demands a resumption of cooperation "  with mutual respect  " and in the form of "  win-win partnerships  " and "  direct investments  ", this intellectual says he is aware that "  efforts  " will be required by the international community. "  With Covid-19, even Saudi Arabia and China who supported us are in financial trouble,  " he said. The CNDD-FDD would have "  in the medium term  " no other choice than to open the country when it has multiplied in recent years hostile speeches towards the international community. “  Until today, the government has acted as a single entity. But the one who will be elected must disengage from a part of the team which until now ruled the country.  The Burundi Human Rights Initiative, an NGO under British law, believes that if elected, General Evariste Ndayishimiye will have to "  walk a tightrope  " between Pierre Nkururunziza and the group of generals from the former main Hutu rebel movement of the CNDD-FDD, of which it is itself a part

The Burundian official whom we were able to question, refuses to recognize the existence of "  different currents  " within the party or even less of an internal struggle to come between radicals and moderates. “  Since Évariste Ndayishimiye became secretary general of the party in 2015, the CNDD-FDD has known no friction likely to make him burst into wings. All this thanks to its unifying nature  , ”assures this senior Burundian official. “  Before him, the party experienced several turbulences, practically every two or three years.  " 

Ndayishimiye is "  the lowest common denominator  ," said an activist in exile. “  This is how Nkurunziza was chosen. He had no significant rank, he had studied sports and talked to everyone.  But the main CNDD-FDD generals - including Évariste Ndayishimiye - shared the other levers of power. This is why, according to this activist, we must observe the possible appointments that could take place within the security forces. "  As soon as Évariste Ndayishimiye has power, he can impose certain things, but the mentality of the party will be difficult to change,  " said the source. “  The CNDD has a jurisdictional problem, they chased their intellectuals in 2015. There are also a lot of people in the party who are waiting for a place and believe that it is their turn.  But he believes that "  the generals are aware that the situation is unsustainable and some are already talking to diplomats  ".

Under pressure from opponent Agathon Rwasa

The victory of the ruling party candidate may not be as easy to impose as expected. Since the start of the electoral campaign on April 27, 2020, its main challenger, Agathon Rwasa, has been moving crowds. “  The CNDD-FDD did not see it coming. When they brought Rwasa back to the government and took his side, they thought they would start to gain popularity,  ”comments the activist in exile. The former leader of the FNL rebellion, long considered a Hutu extremist, had forged an alliance in 2015 with the Uprona of Charles Nditije, a historically Tutsi party. Despite his call for the initial boycott, he was awarded second place in the presidential election with 18.99% of the vote. Mr. Rwasa had denounced “ fanciful  ” results  and nevertheless sat in the Assembly of which he took the vice-presidency. Deprived of the name of his party and former rebellion, he was forced last year to create a new structure, the National Council for Liberty (CNL).

Since 2010 and his return to the country, his supporters have been among the main victims of political repression. The two main Hutu rebel movements, Cndd-FDD, and Palipehutu-FN, the group led by Agathon Rwasa, have been rivals since their creation in the 1980s the refugee camps in Tanzania. They were already fighting in 1996, during the civil war between them and the army, then dominated by the Tutsi minority. This competition continues today on the political field. The Hutu community still represents today 85% of the population and most of the electorate.
"  Rwasa executives have worked in Adventist country churches, smuggling messages  ," said the exile activist. “  The FNL are almost a sect in the way they operate. The supporters are very disciplined . For him, Mr. Rwasa managed to present himself as an alternative to the CNDD-FDD and to win a new electoral. "  It has even become the party for which the Tutsis will vote, which would have been unimaginable at the end of the war,  " he said. “  There are still 400,000 refugees outside the country's borders and their families who remain inside are anti-power. For three years, the CNDD-FDD also made everyone pay for the elections, which created an additional feeling.  For the senior Burundian official, the electorate of Mr. Rwasa is on the contrary "  more or less stable since 2010  ". "  It is the Hutu far right to which we add today the spontaneous and circumstantial sympathy of a part of the radical Tutsi opposition hostile to the CNDD-FDD  ", he summarizes without mentioning the causes of this reversal historical. Since 2015 and the first demonstrations against the third term of Pierre Nkurunziza, the mainly Tutsi political parties have also found themselves victims of bloody repression. They accuse like the CNL the regime of Pierre Nkurunziza of having called into question the constitutional balances resulting from the Peace Agreement of Arusha and of relaunching.

The CNDD-FDD executive does not believe in a tidal wave either, but gives another reason. "  Pierre Nkurunziza supports our candidate and he is still as popular among the peasant masses and in the governance of the country, the generals still matter,  " he said. “  What will play is the painful history of the country. In 1993, a president was elected who was killed by the military. Even today, in the messages we send, we remember that Rwasa does not have an army.  As the elections approach, the fear of a new cycle of violence resurfaces . "  The CNDD-FDD will repress as in 2015, it will try to silence all dissenting voices  ," fears the activist again. “  The party still retains a base of followers, all who have benefited from the regime. But they lost the peasant mass.  "

Within civil society as well as the opposition, mainly in exile, we fear today a new impetus and massive fraud, in the absence of any observation mission and organization for the defense of rights of the man on the ground. "  The population is tired of violence, I do not think that we are on the eve of a generalized conflict, but that there may be some noise is not excluded  ", estimates for its part the CNDD-FDD executive. "  Rwasa knows that he cannot be elected president, but he may be able to surprise parliamentarians,  " he concedes.

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