Over the past day in 81 regions of Russia, 8926 new cases of coronavirus infection were recorded. Operational headquarters reports that 40.1% of new patients with COVID-19 did not have clinical manifestations of the disease.

In the previous 24 hours, 9,709 new cases were detected in the Russian Federation, 9,200 the day before. A total of 290,678 cases of COVID-19 were confirmed in the country.

Since the beginning of the epidemic in Russia, 2722 deaths (0.94%) from complications that developed against the background of coronavirus infection and concomitant diseases were recorded. Over the past day, 91 people have died. At the same time, 70,209 people recovered on the territory of the Russian Federation, including 2,836 over the past 24 hours.

According to Rospotrebnadzor, in Russia 7,147,014 laboratory studies were conducted for the presence of a new coronavirus. 264,451 people are under medical control due to the spread of COVID-19. In total, 1,029,447 people were under medical supervision in Russia.

By the number of cases of coronavirus detected per day, Moscow (3238), Moscow Region (921) and St. Petersburg (425) are leading. Note that a day earlier, 3855 new cases of COVID-19 were detected in the capital, 3505 a day before.

Experts believe that in order to return Moscow residents to their usual way of life, it is necessary to understand how many people in the city have already had COVID-19. This opinion was expressed to Rossiyskaya Gazeta by the chief freelance specialist of the Moscow Department of Health on the problems of diagnosis and treatment of HIV infection, professor, MD, Alexei Mazus.

“It is believed that the proportion of the population immune to infection should reach 60%. But we are dealing with an infection, which, according to various estimates, is infectious three or more times than the flu. Therefore, it is so important to know how many people have already been ill and have gained immunity to it, ”the specialist said, referring to mass testing of the population for antibodies to coronavirus in this regard.

Recall that from May 15 in Moscow a large-scale free program for checking the presence of antibodies to the causative agent of the disease COVID-19 has been operating.

According to Mazus, those residents of the city who have immunity can start full work.

“But it’s important not only to make guesses and forecasts about the situation in the capital, but to have a hard scientific justification, which will give a running study. Only in this way can the city return to a more or less normal rhythm with minimal losses for the health of Muscovites, ”the expert concluded.

  • AGN "Moscow"
  • © Sofya Sandurskaya

Predictive Models

Russian analysts have created two predictive models for the incidence of coronavirus in the regions. One model was made by Megaputer Intelligence, a company that developed analytical products, the second by the design office for mathematical modeling of the Ufa Aviation University (USATU) and the Bashkir Medical University (BSMU).

When making a forecast, the system analyzes data from official sources using machine learning and predictive analysis algorithms, and also takes into account the distribution of infections between regions and the severity of quarantine measures depending on the subject.

According to the analysis of the Megaputer Intelligence model, in the Moscow Region, the peak value of the increase in the detected cases was reached on May 12. In Moscow - May 6. However, the model also provides a pessimistic forecast, based on which the peak incidence in the capital can be expected on May 26.

The second model, prepared by USATU and BSMU, suggests that the peak incidence rate in Russia was May 8–9. On these dates, the daily increase in new cases of COVID-19 was about 10.5 thousand people. The forecasting model was based on classic epidemiological models and time series analysis tools.

As told RBC the head of the project office in terms of mathematical modeling and forecasting (USATU) Irina Lakman, in the regions of Russia there are general patterns in the development of the epidemic.

Also on russian.rt.com RT map: distribution of COVID-19 cases by regions of Russia

According to her, in the regions the increase in incidence remains smooth due to the early introduction of restrictions.

Luckman noted that in small regions the spread of infection was taken under control by May 15th. She added that in large regions the situation remains tense, but at the same time, the growth rate of recovery is higher than the rate of infection.