Analysis: "In economic forecasts there are now only two words that you know are correct"

It has become a recurring theme. The finance minister calls a press conference, delivers a dash over his previous picture of the budgetary situation, and comes up with a new one, with tens of billions more in spending for the year. 

The message for the day is that the corona crisis is estimated to cost a staggering $ 240 billion in spending for the state in 2020. And much indicates that this forecast will not last very long either.

The big cuckoo king, or the unbridled horse, or whatever you want to call it, in the budget is the support for companies that allow short-term permits. In March, it was estimated to cost a few billion. A couple of weeks later, when the corona crisis took off, the forecast was 20 billion. And according to today's message, the bill will go to $ 95 billion.

The government has increased the level of remuneration from the state per employee in the meantime, but most of all it is about the finance minister making a total misjudgment of how many employees would need the support. 120,000 was the first commandment. Now the government's forecast is 550,000 employees on average during the year. A total of 1.3 million people will then have received part of the layoff support during any period during the year.

And it takes a lot for that forecast to hold. The Growth Agency has already granted support to 420,000 employees. Applications for many more are waiting to be processed. 

When the government assesses the economy overall for the year, it still believes that the corona situation will ease in the fall. Without in any way being an expert on something that you should be an expert on in order to comment on medical wonders, I still dare say that it might take such a thing to make that prognosis hit.

The fact that the economy is gaining momentum in the autumn, in Sweden and in Sweden's most important countries for the manufacturing industry, should require a global danger over-signal for the corona when the summer holidays are coming to an end. If, instead, it becomes a second and third wave of the virus when countries open up, and it should be handled by political and economic rulers, and by individual people, then the crisis could very well go into next year in its present form. 

In that case, different weather scenarios can just as easily strike. As the government's new worst-forecast for short-term employment. It reads 800,000 short-term permits on average during the year, at a cost of SEK 138 billion, ie SEK 40 billion in addition to today's forecast.

"Right now" it is great to lend to all this, but as it seems now, the low government debt can nevertheless approach the levels that at least the EU thought were reasonable maximum limits when formulating criteria for the EU, cooperation, that is 60 per cent of GDP. And then it may be time to prioritize priorities for the finance minister, rather than scooping on them.