Urian 21: For these reasons, an almost impossible task awaits Al-Kazemi

With Iraq entering its eighth month of popular protests, political elites were able to agree to divide ministerial portfolios, opening the door to an atypical government, and this should not obscure the fact that the interests of the main parties were taken into account in order to reach this outcome; This is how the French Orient 21 website summarized in the current Iraqi scene article.

Representative Sarcot Shams, a member of the Independent Coalition in Parliament, says that Mustafa al-Kazimi - who in less than a month managed to pass his government - repeated the mistakes of his predecessors regarding the sharing of ministerial portfolios between parties, as many of the independents and technocrats appointed by al-Kazemi are controlled by political parties.

He pointed out that the government in general was shared between the Sadrists, the group of Speaker of Parliament Muhammad Al-Halbousi and the Kurdistan Democratic Party.

The article considered that it is not surprising that the political class negotiated for its survival, and if it had not reassured its interests, it impeded the formation of the government, and therefore reached a consensus to break the political deadlock and obtain a respite, while the confrontation between Iran and the United States is far from resolved.

A member of the Kurdish Komal Party, Ahmad al-Hajj, said they boycotted the formation session of the government in Baghdad, because Al-Kazemi had agreed in advance with those with significant political influence without taking into account other parties in parliament. 

Al-Kazemi’s government is waiting for a huge mission in a country that is about to collapse under several threats, because renewed ISIS attacks, the Corona epidemic, economic paralysis and competition between Iran and the United States are all challenges that must be overcome with the resumption of demonstrations in Baghdad to pressure the government.

Although Al-Kazemi declared that redress for the victims of the protests and the revival of the economy are his top priorities, the priority for the demonstrators remains the formation of a government not subject to political parties, despite satisfaction with Al-Kazemi’s recent decision to release the detainees during the popular demonstrations since October.

But Al-Kazemi’s independence can turn into a weakness, because nothing guarantees that harmony will prevail in Baghdad during his tenure, especially as this is linked to the satisfaction of the influential political parties that maintain a large margin of maneuver to serve their interests.

"The game is based on placing a weak prime minister in power, so that he cannot use his powers in the same way that former Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki managed to maintain his grip on the government through a deep network in the state," said Erwin van Finn, a researcher at the Klingendael Institute.

Between inside and outside

The article finds that the prime minister's arduous mission is launched in a tense environment, in which he faces - in addition to the protest movement in the country - the rivalry between Iran and the United States, which did not stop provoking unrest, after Washington's assassination of Iranian leader Qassem Soleimani and Iraqi Abu Mahdi Al-Muhandis almost drowned the country In a new bloody proxy war.

Since then - as the website says - the rise and fall of this competition raises fears of unleashing violence at every moment, at a time when these two countries are trying to reshape their influence in Iraq, as Iran today is much more present than the United States, whose influence has recovered during the fight against State regulation.

Erwin van Vien says that the Iranians have infiltrated the Iraqi political and economic system at almost all levels, and they have strong militias there "and they are able to cause a conflict in Iraq that will benefit them in the long run."

However, the Iraqi religious authority, Ayatollah Sistani, is said to have helped withdraw most of the non-Iranian militias from the PMF, to be under the orders of the Prime Minister, especially the golden division formerly led by Abdul-Wahab Al-Saadi.

The article concluded that the dispute intensifies between supporters of Iraqi independence with its decision, and the bloc that serves Iran's interests.

Economy, health and security

With this fragile balance, the Iraqi people are plunged into misery and suffer the brunt of the double economic and health crisis.

Although the Coron epidemic did not infect in Iraq as it did in Europe and America, the registration of about three thousand injuries and 110 deaths does not reflect the true reality with the absence of a comprehensive examination.

Ironically, the preventive measures against Corona had the greatest impact on the Iraqis, as the informal economy on which millions of workers lived, in addition to the decline in oil prices, would have a major impact on the state and its budget revenues.

On the strategic dialogue between the United States and Iraq to be held next June, the article pointed out that Baghdad is not about to end its strategic cooperation with Washington, and that American forces will remain in the country, but in smaller numbers.