According to reports from the US Defense News website, on April 17, US Secretary of State Pompeo and Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov discussed the US-Russia bilateral strategic security dialogue and arms control issues. Regarding the negotiation of the renewal of the "New Strategic Weapon Reduction Treaty", the Russian side stated that new nuclear weapons such as hypersonic weapons can be included in the negotiations, but only if Washington must accept the proposal for renewal.
The New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty was signed in April 2010 by US President Barack Obama and Russian President Medvedev in Prague, the Czech capital. It officially entered into force on February 5, 2011, and is valid for 10 years, and can be extended for 5 years upon mutual agreement. The treaty stipulates that the two countries must comprehensively reduce the number of nuclear warheads and missiles deployed during the Cold War period. Seven years after the Treaty entered into force (ie, 2018), they will reduce their respective nuclear warheads to 1,550. The number of nuclear missile launchers and bombers that can launch nuclear weapons Reduced to 800, of which the number of deployed nuclear warhead delivery vehicles should not exceed 700.
After the United States unilaterally withdrew from the "Guidance Treaty" in 2019, the "New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty" became the last of the "three pillars of global strategic stability" and the only effective arms control treaty between Russia and the United States. The treaty will expire in February next year, and Russia and the United States have not yet reached agreement on the issue of contract renewal. If the "New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty" fails, it will undoubtedly trigger a new arms race and undermine strategic stability. This time the Russian side expressed its willingness to include some new types of nuclear weapons in the negotiations, which aroused widespread concern.
In the recent period, Russia has continuously released positive signals of its willingness to renew the Treaty on New Strategic Arms Reduction. Russian President Vladimir Putin reiterated Russia's willingness to renew his contract when he spoke with US President Trump recently. The Russian side proposed that if the United States accepts the renewal proposal, the Russian side is willing to include some of Russia ’s latest nuclear weapons in the treaty.
Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Ryabkov said that the new "Salmat" heavy intercontinental ballistic missile and "Pioneer" hypersonic missile can be included in the treaty together with other Russian nuclear weapons. Ryabkov even stated that Russia is willing to include forward-looking weapons including the "Haiyan" nuclear-powered cruise missile and the "Poseidon" nuclear-powered underwater unmanned submarine into the strategic stability dialogue for discussion. On April 18, Miuliyanov, the Permanent Representative of Russia to the United Nations and other international organizations in Vienna, called for the time for the United States to make a decision on the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty.
As we all know, Russia is the first to use hypersonic weapons as a delivery vehicle for nuclear warheads, which is changing the structure of its nuclear arsenal. With the development and deployment of Russian and American hypersonic missiles, the nuclearization of hypersonic weapons has also become a topic of great concern to the arms control community. This time Russia actively proposed to include hypersonic weapons in the treaty, which shows that for Russia, due to long-term Western sanctions, it has no economic ability to launch a long-term and comprehensive arms race with the United States. By renewing the contract as soon as possible, the two sides will limit their strategic weapons to one Within the controllable range, it is more in line with Russia's security interests.
In fact, the US nuclear weapons production capacity is much higher than that of Russia, and it is currently actively promoting nuclear weapons modernization programs. In February this year, the US Department of Defense released a summary document of the budget application for fiscal year 2021, which clearly pointed out that the total budget for scientific research funds applied by the US military in the hypersonic field in fiscal year 2021 is as high as 3.2 billion US dollars, which is 2.6 billion US dollars higher than the fiscal year 2020 application submitted last year An increase of 23%, a record high in the past 10 years. On March 20, the US Department of Defense announced the successful test launch of a hypersonic missile, which was the first time the US Army and Navy jointly tested this missile on land. For the United States, the New Strategic Weapon Reduction Treaty is rather a constraint on its nuclear weapons development plan.
Therefore, in stark contrast to the positive attitude of the Russian side, the US has been setting a threshold for renewal of the contract. A recent report submitted by the US State Department to Congress said that although Russia has complied with the terms of the treaty, the agreement does not cover enough weapon systems. According to the report, the US government has not yet made a decision on whether to renew the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty. "The government is seeking a military control system that can provide a real security umbrella to the US and its allies and partners, but has not yet decided whether to expand and how to expand the new Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty ".
According to a recent article in the American Arms Control Association, the White House and other officials have not provided any timetable for the expansion of the treaty. Regarding the United States' "dragging tactics", in fact, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Ryabkov said at the Munich Security Summit held in February this year that the United States government is now delaying the time, the purpose is to give the two parties no time to talk about renewal. The problem.
It is worth noting that, judging from the call between Pompeo and Lavrov, the United States still insists on including China in the negotiations. In this call, Pompeo emphasized that any future arms control negotiations must be based on the vision of the trilateral arms control agreement proposed by US President Trump, including China, the United States, and Russia.
In fact, in recent years, while the Chinese "threat" has been rampant, the United States has begun to "enthusiastically" engage in arms control dialogue with China. Trump himself has repeatedly publicly proposed negotiations between China, the United States and Russia on the signing of a new and extensive arms control agreement. As early as in his State of the Union address in January 2019, Trump publicly stated that the new year's policy agenda includes the signing of a new and extensive arms control agreement with Russia and China.
In terms of specific steps, the United States and Europe frequently shouted in an attempt to pull China to join the "Guidelines for Intermediate Guidance." When attending the 70th anniversary celebration of NATO last year, Trump expressed his interest in reaching a new arms control agreement with China and Russia to reduce trillions of "ridiculous" military expenditures. US Secretary of State Pompeo testified in the Senate Foreign Relations Committee of the Congress that the United States and Russia are about to negotiate the renewal of the "New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty", provided that "China joins". On the other hand, after unilaterally withdrawing from the "Guide to the Treaty", the United States stepped up preparations for the deployment of land-based medium-range missiles in Asia.
Regarding the US proposal to include China in the US-Russia arms control agreement, the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs has repeatedly reiterated that China has no intention to participate in the so-called "China-US-Russia Trilateral Arms Control Negotiations". This position is very clear and has been widely understood by the international community, including Russia. Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov said that Russia understands China ’s reason for not including it in the Russia-US New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty. He emphasized that China ’s nuclear weapon strength is much smaller than that of the United States and Russia. As the world ’s largest and most advanced nuclear arsenal, the United States should effectively fulfill its special responsibility for nuclear disarmament and respond to Russia ’s call for an extension of the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty. And further reduce its huge nuclear arsenal to create conditions for other nuclear-weapon states to join multilateral nuclear disarmament negotiations.
Russia ’s Foreign Minister Lavrov ’s statement undoubtedly said a fair and fair sentence, and also pierced the hypocritical mask of the United States in arms control. Although Russia's position on renewal is positive, a series of unrealistic requests made by the United States have made the treaty's renewal prospect extremely bleak.
Mu Xiaoming Source: China Youth Daily