After eight weeks of strict containment, the French economy should not be able to do without consequences. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is expected to decline sharply in 2020, as the pandemic is hitting key sectors of the economy head on and the new health rules are likely to weigh on productivity, according to Arno Fontaine, economist at Natixis. He believes that "companies will have to apply strict health rules, which will change the organization of work. Their productivity should be extremely low in the coming months, until the disappearance of the virus".

Another consequence is a soaring budget deficit and record public debt. But nothing to worry about, as long as interest rates remain extremely low. Because "this debt, which is due to the coronavirus crisis is completely bought by the European Central Bank (ECB), as it also does with the other member states, which causes a debt which is somehow free", recalls Arno Fontaine.

French debt should therefore remain sustainable, allowing France to keep the room for maneuver necessary to revive its economy. In this context, "we do not expect policies of higher taxes or lower spending", said Arno Fontaine, who considers that "it would be a bad economic choice". 

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