Norway is slowly starting to return to normal. But even though there is much evidence that Norway is past the first wave of the corona eruption, it is naive to believe that the epidemic is over, the authorities warn.
Deputy Health Director Geir Stene-Larsen at the Institute of Public Health (FHI) said at Wednesday's press conference that almost one percent of the population has so far been infected with covid-19 and thus developed some immunity.
- So we will be very vulnerable to the introduction of new infection, and this can flare up again, he says.
Painted three scenariosToday, Norway has just over 7,900 confirmed to be infected with the corona virus, but FHI estimates that the actual number is just over 50,000 people.
FHI estimates that the so-called R-number is now at 0.6, which means that each infected person in turn infects fewer than one new person. The authority expects that the number of infected persons will continue to decline until the end of May. If it instead increases when the restrictions are eased, FHI has painted three different scenarios.
At an infection rate of 1.1, the outbreak will gradually increase from September, reaching a peak of between 400 and 500 hospitalized in January. If the R-figure rises to 1.2, the peak will come earlier with almost 1,400 hospital admissions in December. With an infection rate of 1.3, a much stronger peak is reached in October with between 2,600 and 2,800 hospitalized. But that trend is considered extremely unlikely.