Coronavirus: the underside of the "German model"

Text by: Pascal Thibaut Follow

More than three months after the start of the pandemic on its soil, the country draws a positive balance in terms of health. Today, Germany is trying to respond without haste to the pressures of those who are calling for as much flexibility as possible. The country must also manage the serious economic consequences of the crisis.

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From our correspondent in Berlin,

It was on January 28 that the pandemic - which does not yet bear this name - reached Germany. Symbolically, in this very exporting country and which maintains close economic relations with China, the first case diagnosed is that of an employee of a Bavarian company, working for the automobile industry. The 33-year-old man was infected during a seminar at the company's headquarters near Munich, which was attended by a Chinese colleague who had come to Germany on purpose. The man is placed in quarantine in a clinic. Other employees of the same company will be infected later.

Screening is allowed in this first phase thanks to the know-how of German experts. Virologist Christian Drosten, who co-discovered the SARS virus with a colleague in 2003, is among the best specialists in the world. He and his team at the Charité hospital in Berlin developed the first Covid-19 screening test, available in mid-January and for which WHO has published the protocol for its use. Like other colleagues, the man who has since had a meteoric media career and has closely advised the German government, does not want to be alarmist.

► Also listen : European hospitals on the go

The Robert Koch Institute, the federal epidemiological center against epidemics, whose regular press conferences now feed alerts from the German media, judges the risk caused by the new virus to be minimal for the population. Health Minister Jens Spahn (CDU) reassures: “  It was foreseeable that the infection would reach Germany. We are well prepared.  It is true that the country has internationally recognized experts and that the concentration of the first cases in a company quickly helps to contain the epidemic, isolate the infected and identify their contacts.

Ironically, it is the carnival, a month later, which will make the German officials lose their smile. February 26 marks a break. China seems very far away. Italy has seven infections. On this day, it becomes clear that a carnival evening in the small town of Heinsberg in North Rhine-Westphalia, ten days earlier, has explosive potential. 300 people gathered and were infected. Unlike the Bavarian case, it becomes very difficult, if not impossible, to find all potentially infected people, even if the small town is put under quarantine. The Minister of Health realizes the scope of this new stage and declares: “  We are at the start of an epidemic in our country.  "

“ Never since World War II has our country faced such a challenge ”

The word is dropped. On paper, experts had worked on such a scenario a few years earlier and in particular planned the measures to be taken. But in reality, as in other countries, masks and other protective equipment are lacking. At the beginning of March, the shortage led the federal state to centralize the file. The exports of these goods are initially prohibited. A measure which provokes many critics in Europe and which is then relaxed. Germany, in the weeks which follow, tries by all the means to obtain material which it does not have, sometimes the regions compete with the federal State. Angela Merkel's good relations with Chinese officials, like that of German companies on the spot, are put to use. In April, the problems gradually diminish.

The development of the pandemic and the grim scenarios are shaking up the political game. Angela Merkel, initially very absent, leaves her Minister of Health on the front line. But the worsening of threats forced him to change gear and get on the front line. The Chancellor appeared before the press, more precisely before the Bundespressekonferenz association , on March 11, when she usually did this exercise only once a year, in summer. The boss of the Robert Koch Institute and the Minister of Health are by his side. A week later, the Chancellor addresses a solemn address to the nation, a first for 15 years for an exercise usually reserved for December 31 vows.

“  Never since World War II has our country faced such a challenge.  Angela Merkel wants to persuade her fellow citizens that the hour is serious and that the fight against the pandemic is in the hands of each of them. Because the time is no longer on the scales. Schools and kindergartens, restaurants and hotels, most shops, cultural places and sports clubs close. The Germans should stay at home as much as possible. But strict confinement as in France or Italy is not retained. It is still possible to leave your home without a certificate. Apart from barrier gestures, only one person who does not belong to his own home can be encountered outside. If, in the early days and even later, images of Germans enjoying many of the parks thanks to optimal weather conditions raise doubts about the observance of the measurements, the latter work. The German government enjoys very broad support from the population (around 90%). Angela Merkel has seen her popularity, which has always remained positive for 15 years, jump.

The economic consequences of these decisions are massive. A historic recession is expected this year. The government reacts with various programs to support the economy of hundreds of billions of euros. The sacrosanct budgetary balance is sacrificed.

Positive results for Germany in the fight against the pandemic

In the fight against the pandemic proper, Germany can draw more than three months after the first case detected in Bavaria, a positive outcome. With 164,000 cases of Covid-19 identified by the Koch Institute, the number of deaths remains at a lower level than in other countries (6,800). Above all, hospitals have never been confronted with an influx of patients requiring intensive care who would have put their capacities to the test. Different factors explain these results. The first outbreaks, in Bavaria and Heinsberg, were quickly circumcised. Germany quickly tested (2.5 million in total). Many laboratories are participating in this effort.

► Also to listen: " The German regional system has been a real plus in managing the epidemic "

Their capacities (900,000 tests per week) are today much higher than the number of tests actually carried out. The Germans, given the numbers of new infections on the decline, may be less rushed to get tested. It is also true that for a long time the criteria were very strict and those interested sometimes found it very difficult to carry out a test. In the future, people who do not necessarily have symptoms typical of the disease should be able to use it. This also applies to homes for the elderly (one third of deaths from the virus so far).

The average age of those infected is lower than in other countries, which reduces the percentage of risk groups, starting with the most senior. This earlier awareness and numerous tests have saved time and prepared hospitals. Germany is the country in Europe with the largest number of intensive care beds.

A model that also has flaws

The German model is not perfect. Hospitals are severely short of manpower. Great efforts were necessary to obtain masks and other protective equipment. Experts have changed their minds, making it more difficult for politicians to make decisions and for the general public to understand whether the Germans need to wear a mask or not. Having become compulsory throughout the country in public transport and shops, their port has not long been recommended by the Robert Koch Institute.

Today, Germany must manage, like other countries, the exit from the restrictive measures adopted. As elsewhere, it is not simple. Especially since in this federal country, the Chancellor and her government do not decide alone, but in consultation with the sixteen German Länder. Decision-making in recent weeks had already shown that the confusion and ulterior motives of certain regional barons did not facilitate the adoption of global measures. Between the Minister-President of Bavaria, Markus Söder, head of the conservative CSU party, CDU ally of Angela Merkel and his counterpart Armin Laschet of North Rhine-Westphalia, candidate to lead the Christian Democratic party, c Today is also a rivalry in the race for the looming chancellery .

But federalism also has advantages in responding locally to various situations. If the two regions headed by Markus Söder and Armin Laschet are the most affected by the pandemic, the east of the country is for example much less. At a time when the relaxation of restrictions is on the agenda, a competition is taking place between the regions, which complicates the task of Angela Merkel who is negotiating again this Wednesday May 6 with the bosses of the sixteen Länder. Some are already going further, such as Saxony-Anhalt, allowing meetings of several people outside. Bavaria announced Tuesday, May 5 the reopening by the end of the month in stages and with caution from restaurants and hotels. Stores have largely reopened in Germany. The schools, timidly, get back to work.

Last week, Angela Merkel had denounced the "  orgies of discussions  " on this subject fearing that too rapid easing would jeopardize the good results of the country in its fight against the pandemic. Both the Chancellor and the experts fear a second wave that many believe is inevitable.

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