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May 06, 2020 "Despite a rapid and comprehensive political response both at EU and national level, this year the European economy will suffer a historical recession". The EU commission wrote in the spring economic forecasts. For the Eurozone the drop in 2020 will be 7.7% and for the EU 7.4%, but in 2021 an important rebound is expected: + 6.3% in the euro area and + 6.1% in the Union. Compared to the autumn forecast, the data have been revised downwards by about 9 points.

Italy's deficit at 11% in 2020, debt at 159%
In 2019 the 1.6% Italian deficit marked a "historic low", but in 2020 "the coronavirus will push it to 11%". in 2021 it will drop to 5.5%. So the estimates of the EU commission. The debt instead, "stable" at 134.8% in 2019, "will reach 159% in 2020 and will drop to 153.5% in 2021, mainly due to the dynamics of the GDP".

The primary surplus will be "negative for the second time since the adoption of the euro, weighing heavily on debt in 2020".

"The lockdown has put an abrupt brake on private consumption", but an equally "sharp rebound in the second half of 2020" is expected, "writes the commission. "Income support measures and low inflation should support household spending, however only partially due to the gradual easing of containment measures." In addition, "in full collapse in demand, drainage of cash flows and high uncertainty, firms are likely to reduce investment spending, while measures such as supporting liquidity should limit the number of bankruptcies." Due to the contraction of the markets, Italian exports will have a "substantial drop" in exports, with "tourism among the sectors most affected". In 2021, "exports are expected to resume in line with global trade". 

Unemployment Italy rises to 11.8% in 2020 
"The extended coverage and the easing of the criteria for the support schemes for wages (layoffs) should support labor income and reduce the risk of layoffs and unemployment. job seekers, seasonal workers and contract workers may not have emergency support and some may temporarily withdraw ": so EU estimates that see unemployment in Italy rise to 11.8% in 2020, and fall to 10.7% in 2021. (handle).

In Greece, the biggest drop in GDP, then Italy, third in Spain.
In 2020, Greece, among the EU countries, will record the biggest drop in GDP with a drop of 9.7% but Italy, with a drop by -9.5%, will still be in second position. This is what the economic forecasts released today by the European Commission indicate. Spain is in third place (-9.4%) while France will register the fifth largest drop (-8.2%). Germany should instead get away with a 6.5% drop, ranking 18th in the EU where Poland (-4.3%) will suffer the least damage.

Dombrovskis: avoiding disparities, recovery plan immediately
"This crisis affects all member states, but the recovery varies according to the severity of the contagion, the duration of the containment measures and the state of the economy", therefore "the strongest economies are in a better position to support workers, families and businesses. We must avoid ending up with great disparities in the internal market, which become fixed. This is the reason why we must immediately approve an ambitious European recovery plan ": so Vice-President ValdisdDombrovskis.

Hibernating economy, experiencing its worst recession
"Real-time data indicate that economic activity in Europe has collapsed at an unprecedented speed in recent weeks, and containment measures put in place by member countries in mid-March to respond to the crisis they put the economy into a state of hibernation. " "Given the gravity of this unprecedented global shock, it is now quite clear that the EU has entered the deepest economic downturn in its history."

EU growth will return with pandemic under control and effective measures by states and the Union 
EU GDP will return to rise in 2021 "assuming that containment measures will be gradually lifted", that at that point "the pandemic remains under control" and that " the unprecedented fiscal and monetary measures implemented by the member states and the EU have an effect in mitigating the immediate economic impact of the crisis, as well as limiting permanent damage to the economic fabric ". The EU commission wrote this highlighting the many unknown factors that weigh on the prospects for a recovery in economic activity in Europe in 2021 after the slump expected for this year.

The labor market: 9% unemployment
 "The pandemic will have a serious impact on the labor market". "Countries" with a high proportion of short-term contracts and where a large share of the workforce depends on tourism are particularly vulnerable ". For the Eurozone, unemployment will rise from 7.5% in 2019 to 9.6% in 2020, before falling to 8.6% in 2021. In the EU, it will rise from 6.7% last year to 9% in 2020, and will drop to 7.9% in 2021.