China's Meteorological "Chip" Establishing Independent Technology
Rely on it, the weather forecast is more reliable
Weather forecast information such as cloudy weather, rain and snow are closely related to our daily life. The weather forecasts we see and hear every day come mainly from "numerical weather forecasting", which is a scientific and technological method based on mathematical and physical methods, using high-performance computers to objectively and quantitatively calculate future weather evolution. On the basis of numerical weather forecasting, forecasters make judgments based on their own experience and make corrections to form the forecast information we have obtained.
On April 28, 2010, the China Meteorological Administration Numerical Forecast Center was established. After ten years of hard work, China's numerical weather forecasting has not only achieved a virtuous cycle of independent research and development, application, improvement and development, but also based on independent technology, it has comprehensively established a national-level numerical weather forecasting business system and implemented application services.
It has been nearly 40 years since China officially established a numerical weather forecast business unit in the early 1980s. "Overcoming the difficulties from basic equipment to model development to commercialization, and after the leap in the past 10 years after the establishment of the Numerical Forecast Center, we finally have China's own numerical weather forecasting system that can serve the whole country and the world. China has become one of the main scientific and technological supports of the World Meteorological Center. "Said Zeng Qingcun, academician of the Chinese Academy of Sciences and winner of the National Supreme Science and Technology Award.
The atmosphere is a fluid, and its basic motion follows the basic theory of fluid mechanics. Meteorologists derived a set of basic equations about atmospheric motion through theoretical derivation of the basic laws of fluid mechanics and thermodynamics that atmospheric motion complies with, including motion equations, thermodynamic equations, continuity equations, state equations, and water vapor equations. Under the condition that the current state of the atmosphere and the surrounding environment of the atmosphere are known, the approximate numerical solution of the system of equations is obtained. This is the numerical weather forecast.
As the core technology of the meteorological business, numerical weather forecast has outstanding importance, difficult research and development, and a wide range of fields. It is known as the "chip" of the meteorological cause. It is an important part of ensuring the safety of life, production development, affluent life, and good ecology.
"Numerical forecasting is the mainstay of business weather forecasting. Accurate weather forecasting cannot be separated from numerical forecasting as the first basis." Xu Jianmin, academician of the Chinese Academy of Engineering, said: "The numerical forecasting model is complex, and the components within the system are closely linked. The volume and difficulty are extremely high, requiring multiple professional and high-level scientists to effectively organize and cooperate for a long time. Therefore, the numerical weather forecast reflects the comprehensive scientific and technological strength and level of a country to a certain extent. "
In 2000, China's new generation of numerical weather forecasting system GRAPES (global and regional assimilation forecasting system) independent research and development began. In 2010, a team of numerical forecasting centers formed by centralized numerical forecasting R & D and business forces began a difficult task: R & D of a global model physical process that reflected the characteristics of China ’s weather and climate; research on key technologies of four-dimensional variational assimilation, research and development on multiple platforms and multiple Sensor satellite data assimilation application technology; solve various bottleneck problems such as high-performance computing and supporting platforms ...
"Our country's numerical forecasting business development mode has completed a major change from introduction to independent research and development, and built a numerical weather forecasting system with complete independent technology that combines high and low resolution with appropriate, deterministic and integrated forecasting." Wang Jianjie, director of the Meteorological Center, said.
"Numerical Forecast Center has made rapid progress since its establishment, and has established a numerical weather forecasting business system with China's own technology, which meets the needs of China's current national security and economic construction for meteorological guarantees, and has become the main scientific pillar of China's weather forecasting for future sustainability. Development has laid a good foundation. "Li Zechun, an academician of the Chinese Academy of Engineering and a numerical forecast expert, said.
In 2017, the China Meteorological Administration was officially recognized as the World Meteorological Center by the World Meteorological Organization and became one of the nine World Meteorological Centers in the world, which marked that China's overall level of meteorological modernization entered the world's advanced ranks. "China Meteorological Administration is recognized as the World Meteorological Center, and the independently developed GRAPES numerical forecast system is the most important factor." Gong Jiandong, deputy director of the Numerical Forecast Center said.
Numerical forecast products are the "first basis" for forecasters when making forecasts. The numerical forecast center should strengthen business applications and continuously improve the forecasting service support capability.
In August 2019, the 9-kilometer resolution GRAPES typhoon forecast system was operational, and the "first battle" faced typhoon "Lichma". The "Lichma", which landed in Wenling, Zhejiang with a super typhoon level, is a "mare horse" in the 2019 flood season. In the path capture and prediction, the Fengyun 4 A star interacts with the GRAPES numerical forecasting space star-to-earth, improving the accuracy of the forecast.
In addition, after the high-resolution assimilation system was put into operation, the ability to forecast strong convective weather was significantly improved.
"Numerical weather forecasting is a theory, a technology, or even a craft. You must work hard and study hard." Zeng Qingcun said: "First of all, it is based on mathematical physics theory, there are general rules, we must strive to lay a good foundation in mathematics, but so far There is no good theoretical solution to the description of clouds, the rainfall process, and the mechanism of many mesoscale and disaster processes. It must be diligent to explore and innovate. Secondly, the weather occurs in a complex environment that differs greatly, and has its own The various observations of various errors are the initial conditions, the specific conditions are different, and they have their particularities. It is necessary to uphold the 'skills of craftsmen' and make good use of 'embroidering skills', and analyze them carefully and process them ingeniously. In the development of numerical weather forecasting, both generality and particularity must be taken into consideration, and they are indispensable. "
Looking to the future, Shen Xueshun, head of the national key scientific and technological innovation team and deputy director of the Numerical Forecast Center, said: "In the future, we will continue to aim at the forefront of international science and technology, uphold the 'artisan spirit', persevere and continue to accelerate the accumulation of scientific and technological strength, and make more changes for the country. Great contribution. "
Our reporter Liu Yi