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by Tiziana Di Giovannandrea 04 May 2020 The economic picture that emerges from the survey released by the Confindustria Study Center illustrates that with the end of the lockdown there will be no rapid recovery of GDP and production in the second quarter will be worse than in the first quarter. Furthermore, in the second quarter, according to experts from Viale dell'Astronomia: "A drop in Italian GDP of at least 8 percentage points is to be expected".

As for the fact that the end of the lockdown will not generate a rapid recovery, this can be explained by the fact that families will continue to be cautious and businesses will have to dispose of the accumulated stocks in recent months. 

In addition, the emergency caused by the Coronavirus pandemic produced "An unprecedented fall in activity in the available historical series", which in March and April led to a halving of  industrial production which recorded a loss of over 50%.

In the note of the Confindustria Study Center, much emphasis is given to the fact that in the second quarter of 2020 there will be a much more negative trend in GDP and production than that observed in the first quarter.

Centro Studi di Confindustria then notes that: "A modest recovery in demand is expected" and therefore "a strong cyclical rebound in the business is to be expected" adding as: "Even taking into account a positive trend in May and June, production in the second quarter is expected to decline at more than double the rate recorded in the first. Everything must be done to adequately support businesses and families ; the alternative is a general and lasting impoverishment that will bring wealth levels back by forty years ".  

Minister for Economic Development  Stefano Patuanelli  in a hearing in the Chamber, reported that "The reduction in production is over 50-55 % overall for April and over 30% for March. These numbers lead us to think that the general decline of production volume of all production sectors will amount to 400-500 billion euros on an annual basis ". The minister also stressed that for how many resources can be allocated " We will never be able to equalize the real damage due to the lack of production ".