How to look at the economic situation in the first quarter dialectically
The first quarter of this year was extremely extraordinary. The sudden new coronary pneumonia epidemic has brought unprecedented impact on China's economic and social development, and the main economic indicators have declined significantly. In the face of the grim situation, under the strong leadership of the Party Central Committee with Comrade Xi Jinping at the core, all regions and departments coordinated efforts to advance the epidemic prevention and control and economic and social development work. The whole country was united and worked together. The epidemic prevention and control situation continued to improve. The spread of the epidemic was basically blocked; the overall economic and social situation remained stable, the basic livelihood of 1.4 billion people was effectively guaranteed, the supply of emergency supplies and necessities was sufficient, and the basic products related to national economy and livelihood continued to grow; the progress of resumption of production and production was obviously accelerated, and the order of production and life was gradually restored .
At the same time, it should be noted that the overseas epidemic situation continues to spread, the world economy is in recession, unstable and uncertain factors have increased significantly, and China's economic development is facing new difficulties and challenges. It is necessary to adhere to the general tone of progress in stability, further increase the macro-policy hedging, and do a good job in the "six stability" work to ensure the employment of residents, the basic livelihood of the market, the main body of the market, the security of food and energy, and the stability of the supply chain of the industrial chain. 1. Maintain basic-level operations, stabilize the economic fundamentals, and promote stable economic operation and overall social stability.
1. The impact of the epidemic has a greater impact, and the industry development resilience is prominent
In the first quarter, the new coronary pneumonia epidemic severely impacted the production and living order, and had a huge impact on economic operations. It was necessary and costly to fight the epidemic. According to preliminary calculations, the GDP in the first quarter decreased by 6.8% year-on-year, of which the added value of the primary, secondary and tertiary industries decreased by 3.2%, 9.6% and 5.2% respectively. At the same time, China's economic and social development has withstood the severe test brought about by the New Coronary Pneumonia epidemic. This is because China has a long-term development and has accumulated a solid material foundation, strong economic development resilience, and agriculture, energy, raw materials, information, finance, etc. The continuous production of major industries guarantees the basic operation of the economy and society.
From the perspective of agriculture, when grabbing agriculture, all localities have done well the tasks of spring tillage and spring sowing and the prevention and control of diseases and insect pests, and actively restored the production capacity of pigs. In the first quarter, the added value of the planting industry increased by 3.5% year-on-year. The growth of winter wheat is better than last year and normal years. At the end of March, the planting area of the first and second types of winter wheat nationwide accounted for 87.2%. At the end of the first quarter, the live pig inventory increased by 3.5% from the end of the fourth quarter of the previous year.
From the industrial point of view, various regions and departments encourage key enterprises to insist on production in the fight against epidemics, strengthen the guarantee of production factors, stabilize the supply of energy raw materials and basic products, and help prevent epidemics and restore production and living order. In the first quarter, the output of natural gas, crude oil, ten nonferrous metals, ethylene and crude steel increased by 9.1%, 2.4%, 2.1%, 1.3% and 1.2% year-on-year respectively.
From the perspective of the service industry, the demand for information such as e-commerce, home office, remote consultation, and online education has expanded rapidly, and the stable development of the capital market and corporate credit has driven the growth of the information industry and the financial industry. In the first quarter, the added value of the information transmission, software and information technology service industries increased by 13.2% year-on-year, and the added value of the financial industry increased by 6.0% year-on-year.
2. Some traditional industries have been seriously hit, and the new economy and new momentum have grown against the trend
Since the outbreak, intensive accommodation and contact industries such as catering, accommodation, market shopping, and tourism culture have been hit hard, and traditional consumption and industrial activities have contracted significantly. In the first quarter, the added value of the accommodation and catering industry, wholesale and retail industry, transportation, warehousing and postal services decreased by 35.3%, 17.8%, and 14.0% year-on-year, respectively, and the added value of the automobile manufacturing industry above designated size decreased by 26.0% year-on-year.
At the same time, on the basis of the continuous rise of new industries, new formats, and new models in China in recent years, the epidemic has forced the digital transformation of consumption and the upgrading of industrial digitalization. Emerging demands for information consumption, online consumption, platform consumption, and intelligent consumption have grown rapidly. The new kinetic energy represented by the Internet economy has shown strong vitality. Online shopping and express delivery are bucking the trend. In the first quarter, the national online retail sales of physical goods increased by 5.9% year-on-year, accounting for 23.6% of the total retail sales of social consumer goods, an increase of 5.4 percentage points over the same period of the previous year; Pieces, an increase of 3.2% year-on-year, of which 23% year-on-year growth in March. From January to February, the operating income of the Internet and related service industries increased by 10.1% year-on-year.
In addition, the growth of new industries and new products continues unabated. In the first quarter, the output of smart watches, 3D printing equipment, and servers increased by 125.3%, 87.7%, and 29.3% year-on-year, respectively, and the output of monocrystalline silicon, ultra-clear glass for solar industry, and semiconductor discrete devices increased by 60.9%, 52.9%, and 45.7% year-on-year respectively. . In March, the value added of strategic emerging industries and high-tech manufacturing increased by 5.8% and 8.9% year-on-year respectively.
3. Investment activities slowed down, and the construction of short-board areas such as health and epidemic prevention was strengthened
Under the impact of the epidemic, the overall investment declined significantly due to various factors such as a reduction in construction days, a slow progress of the project, and insufficient materials and personnel required for investment projects. In the first quarter, fixed asset investment fell by 16.1% year-on-year. Among them, manufacturing investment fell by 25.2%, infrastructure investment fell by 19.7%, and real estate development investment fell by 7.7%.
Facing the rapidly rising demand for anti-epidemic disease, various regions and departments adhered to the national chess game, focused on increasing investment in emergency supplies and medical and health fields, and the production capacity of medical supplies expanded rapidly. In the first quarter, the investment and added value of the biopharmaceutical product manufacturing industry increased by 15.1% and 10.5% year-on-year respectively; alcohol production increased by 24.8% year-on-year; mask output increased by 3.5 times year-on-year, and the daily production capacity of various masks expanded from tens of millions to hundreds of millions . As of April 5, the daily production capacity of disposable medical protective clothing has exceeded 1.5 million pieces, the daily production capacity of medical N95 masks exceeds 3.4 million, and the daily production capacity of handheld infrared thermometers is 400,000 units. Accelerate the progress of key epidemic prevention projects, and successively build two special hospitals in Huoshen Mountain and Raytheon Mountain in Wuhan, rapidly transform large-scale cabin hospitals, and increase the construction of infectious disease hospitals; repairing Xiaotangshan Hospital in Beijing has ensured the prevention and control of epidemics Launch efficiently.
In particular, the central government has optimized the investment of local government special bonds, made good use of investment in the central budget, and focused on the weak areas and key links. Some people's livelihood and high-tech industries have achieved growth in investment. In the first quarter, investment in electricity, heat, gas and water production and supply increased by 2.0% year-on-year, investment in livestock and poultry farming increased by 5.4% and 18.8% year-on-year, respectively, e-commerce services, professional technology services, and technology achievement transformation services , Computer and office equipment manufacturing investment increased by 39.6%, 36.7%, 17.4% and 3.2% year-on-year respectively.
4. Market consumption decreased, and the sales of residents ’daily necessities increased steadily
During the epidemic prevention and control period, residents' offline shopping, dining out, gatherings with friends and relatives, traveling abroad, and recreational activities such as recreation and sports decreased significantly. In the first quarter, the total retail sales of consumer goods fell by 19.0% year-on-year, of which the retail sales of commodities fell by 15.8%, and the revenue of catering services fell by 44.3%; the per capita consumption expenditure of residents nationwide actually fell by 12.5%.
Despite the severe impact of the epidemic, there is sufficient supply of necessities throughout the country, and the production and sales of commodities closely related to the basic lives of the people have maintained growth. From January to March, the output of frozen meat, chemical drugs, instant noodles increased by 20.6%, 4.5%, and 3.2% year-on-year respectively; of the retail sales of units above designated size, grain, oil, food, beverage, and Chinese and Western medicines increased by 12.6% year-on-year respectively. , 4.1%, 2.9%; national per capita food expenditure increased by 15.5%, consumption of rice noodles, grains and oils increased, consumption of vegetables, poultry and eggs increased rapidly.
Facing the needs of epidemic prevention and control, various regions have insisted on putting people first, facilitating the people and benefiting the people, and actively developed self-service retail and community retail, with good results. The self-service retail business of supermarkets, warehousing member stores, etc. has seen a good growth, and the sales of community retail stores have decreased significantly. From January to March, the retail sales of warehousing member stores and supermarkets above designated size increased by 11.6% and 1.9% respectively year-on-year; the decline in retail sales of convenience stores and grocery stores was less than 6.3 and 5.8 percentage points of the retail sales of units above designated size, respectively.
5. The pressure on residents ’employment and income growth has increased, and the basic livelihood security has been strengthened
Under the impact of the epidemic, the demand for employment of many companies has decreased, and some recruitment has been delayed or cancelled, and employment pressure has increased significantly. In the first quarter, there were 2.29 million new jobs in cities and towns across the country, a year-on-year increase of 950,000. In February, the unemployment rate in urban surveys nationwide rose to 6.2%, an increase of 0.9 percentage points from the same period last year. Affected by various factors, the number of people entering the labor market has decreased, and the number of employed persons in March decreased by more than 6% compared with January. Difficulties in employment and difficulties in increasing incomes for enterprises have shown a decline in the actual income of residents that has not declined for many years. In the first quarter, the per capita disposable income of residents nationwide fell by 3.9% year-on-year, of which urban and rural residents fell by 3.9% and 4.7% respectively.
In order to reduce the impact of the epidemic, employment priority policies continued to be strengthened, and efforts to stabilize enterprises and aid positions continued to increase. In February, governments at all levels paid a total of 123.9 billion yuan for social insurance premiums for enterprises, including pension, unemployment, and work injury. In March, relevant measures were taken The continuation measures are expected to reach a total of more than 500 billion yuan by June. These measures have avoided large-scale layoffs and layoffs, and promoted overall employment stability. In March, the national unemployment rate in urban surveys was 5.9%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month.
In response to the decrease in residents' income, the central government has issued a series of assistance and support policies to provide strong support for the basic life of retired employees, low-income groups, and people with financial difficulties. Pensions and retirement pensions are paid in full and on time, and temporary relief subsidies are intensified. This year, the basic pensions for retirees of enterprises, institutions and institutions across the country continue to increase by 5%. In the first quarter, the national per capita pension and retirement pension income increased nominally by 9.1% year-on-year, while the rural residents ’per capita social relief and subsidy income and policy-based living allowance income increased by 10.5% and 13.1% respectively.
Recently, due to the continued increase in the supply and price stabilization measures, the supply of pork has increased, and the prices of fresh and live food have fallen more, which has led to a corresponding fall in consumer prices. From January to March, consumer prices rose by 4.9% year-on-year, down 0.4 percentage points from January to February; the core CPI, excluding food and energy prices, increased by 1.3%. In March, consumer prices rose by 4.3% year-on-year, a decrease of 0.9 percentage points from the previous month. Among them, the price of fresh vegetables changed from a rise of 10.9% in February to a decrease of 0.1%.
Six. The difficulty of getting rid of poverty has increased, and the three major battles have been solidly advanced
As of the end of 2019, China still has 5.51 million rural poor people, which is still a large number, and most of them are deeply impoverished people. The “three districts and three states” and other deeply impoverished areas face arduous challenges in achieving “three guarantees”. In particular, affected by the epidemic, the risk of poverty and return to poverty due to the epidemic has increased, the pressure on the poor to increase income has increased significantly, and the difficulty of getting out of poverty has further increased. Faced with the complex situation, the whole country has worked hard to make up for the shortcomings in the process of building a well-off society, continue to increase poverty alleviation efforts, resolutely prevent poverty from returning to poverty due to epidemics, fight the battle of blue sky, clear water and pure land, and actively prevent and resolve Significant risks and effects continue to show.
Increased funding and project support for poverty alleviation. The central government's special poverty alleviation funds for 2020 were released ahead of schedule, and a total of 139.6 billion yuan was released as of the end of March; accelerated poverty alleviation projects started to resume work; as of April 3, more than 260,000 poverty alleviation projects were started in 22 provinces in the Midwest. The income of rural residents in poor areas maintained growth. In the first quarter, the per capita disposable income of rural residents in Sichuan, Guizhou, and Guangxi, which had relatively large numbers of poor people, increased nominally by 5.3%, 4.8%, and 4.6% respectively year-on-year.
The proportion of clean energy consumption has increased, and the overall environmental quality has improved. According to preliminary calculations, in the first quarter, the consumption of clean energy such as natural gas, hydropower, nuclear power, and wind power in the country accounted for 0.8% of the total energy consumption. The proportion of average good days of air quality in 337 prefecture-level and above cities nationwide increased by 6.6 percentage points year-on-year, and the PM2.5 concentration decreased by 14.8% year-on-year.
Comprehensive use of multiple monetary policy tools to maintain reasonable and sufficient market liquidity, guide the real interest rate down, the overall stability of the financial market. At the end of March, the broad money supply (M2) balance increased by 10.1% year-on-year, 1.4 percentage points faster than the end of the previous year. In the first quarter, RMB loans of financial institutions increased by 7.1 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.3 trillion yuan year-on-year.
7. The pace of resuming work and resuming production is accelerating.
With the gradual consolidation of the domestic epidemic prevention and control effectiveness, various enterprises have resumed work in an orderly manner, and production and living order has been restored quickly. According to the monitoring of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, as of April 14, the average operating rate of industrial enterprises above designated size has reached 99%, and the resumption rate of SMEs has exceeded 80%. According to the information of the National Development and Reform Commission, railway, airport, energy and foreign investment projects have basically resumed work, and the construction of new infrastructure such as 5G and data centers has accelerated. The rate of resumption of key projects at the end of March reached more than 90%.
Compared with February, the positive factors in the economic operation increased in March, and the decline in the main economic indicators narrowed. In March, the added value of industries above designated size decreased by 1.1% year-on-year, a decrease of 12.4 percentage points from January to February, and the output scale was close to that of the same period last year; the service industry production index fell by 9.1%, narrowed by 3.9 percentage points; social consumer goods retail The total fell by 15.8%, narrowing by 4.7 percentage points; the total import and export fell by 0.8%, narrowing by 8.7 percentage points. Market sales have rebounded. According to data from the Passenger Car Market Information Joint Conference, the average daily retail volume of passenger cars increased from less than 10,000 in February to 31,000 in March. The transportation and logistics situation improved, and the railway freight volume increased by 1.3% year-on-year in March.
It needs to be soberly aware that at present, due to the poor economic cycle, some enterprises still have difficulties in resuming production, lack of orders for production, resumption of work without reinstatement, and non-increasing business operations. The progress of the industry's resumption of the market lags behind. A quick survey in March showed that nearly 20% of the employees of the surveyed enterprises were still in the state of not working. This must be addressed by measures.
8. External risk challenges are rising, and foreign trade and foreign investment are basically stable
The current global epidemic continues to pandemic, and global trade and cross-border investment have been hit hard. According to the International Monetary Fund ’s April 14th forecast, the world economy will decline by 3.0% this year; the World Trade Organization predicts that global trade in goods will drop significantly by 12.9% -31.9%; the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development predicts global foreign direct investment (FDI) Between 2020 and 2021, it will fall by 30% to 40%. Affected by the epidemic situation at home and abroad, the scale of foreign investment in China's foreign trade declined in the first quarter. From January to March, China's total imports and exports of goods (in RMB) decreased by 6.4% year-on-year, and the actual use of foreign investment fell by 10.8%.
Although the total volume of China's goods trade has declined, the total scale is still considerable. The trend of diversification in the trade market is obvious. The imports of commodities and key consumer goods have grown rapidly. The use of foreign investment in high-tech service industries has increased rapidly. The trade structure continues to improve. From January to March, China ’s imports and exports to ASEAN countries and countries along the “Belt and Road” increased by 6.1% and 3.2% respectively year-on-year; imports of iron ore and its concentrates, crude oil, soybeans, medical materials and pharmaceuticals increased by 1.3% respectively , 5.0%, 6.2%, 6.8%.
With the implementation of foreign trade stabilization and foreign investment stabilization policies such as improving export tax rebates, optimizing the business environment, and adding cross-border e-commerce comprehensive test areas, the decline in foreign trade and foreign investment has narrowed in March. 8.7 percentage points, positive growth was achieved in mid and late March; the decline in actual use of foreign investment in March narrowed by 11.5 percentage points from February. The balance of payments situation is generally stable. In the first quarter, China's banks had a surplus of 273 billion yuan in foreign exchange settlement and sales, and a surplus of 98.3 billion yuan in imports and exports of goods. At the end of March, the balance of foreign exchange reserves was 30606 billion US dollars, which remained above 3 trillion US dollars.
On the whole, through the hard work of the whole country and the broad masses of the people, economic and social operations have gradually become normal in the normalization of epidemic prevention and control, the order of production and life has been accelerated, the resilience of China's economic development has appeared, and the overall economic and social situation has remained stable. However, we must also be soberly aware that the current international and domestic economic situation is extremely severe and complex, and the challenges facing China's economic development are unprecedented. From an international perspective, the spread of overseas epidemic outbreaks has accelerated, the downside risks of the world economy have increased, and instability and uncertainties have increased significantly. Production and management of industrial and commercial households are very difficult, employment pressure is increasing, and some long-term structural contradictions accumulated in economic development have overlapped with the staged impact of the epidemic.
In the face of intricate situations, we must adhere to the bottom line of thinking and maintain strategic determination. We have significant socialist system advantages with Chinese characteristics, a complete industrial system and a solid material and technical foundation, a large-scale market advantage and domestic demand potential, huge human capital and human resources, and continuous release of the reform and opening up bonus, With rich experience and tools in macroeconomic regulation and control, China's economic stability and long-term development trends have not and will not change, and China's economic giant will surely turn crises into opportunities and achieve stability.
(Ning Jizhe)
Author: deputy director of the National Development and Reform Commission and National Bureau of Statistics, party secretary