The drums of war are ringing .. What are the scenarios of the American-Iranian escalation in the Gulf waters?

Al-Jazeera Net-Tehran

Over the past years, Gulf waters have turned into an arena for US-Iranian tension, and while one reduces "provocation", the other is sparking an escalation.

Tensions resumed after Iranian boats approached American battleships in the Gulf waters on April 15, and the two sides exchanged responsibility for this, and a series of strongly worded statements followed on both sides.

A range of Iranian analysts say that US President Donald Trump wants to export his internal problems abroad, and that he sees Iran as the weakest link compared to his major enemies, and found in the Gulf waters the most appropriate arena, which explains Iran's violent response to the recent US maneuvers.

In assessing developments in the Gulf waters, academic and researcher in political affairs, Muhammad Salih Sidqian, believes that the American-Iranian tension has passed the stage of muscle flexing, and recently reached the actual friction between the two sides.

Containment of the crisis and
stressed in his speech to Al-Jazeera Net that the severity of the escalation does not mean that the two parties wish to fight the war, especially since regional and international conditions do not allow this, suggesting the scenario of containing the crisis by America and Iran and not slipping into any potential confrontation.

He added that Iran felt the coming threat to it, especially after the United States formed a maritime alliance in the Gulf waters, stressing that the going of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Commander, Major General Hussein Salami, to a conflict area that includes a number of Iranian islands, sent a serious message that the Iranian fingers became the trigger.

Regarding the Iranian threats made by the leaders of the Revolutionary Guards and the Iranian General Staff, Sedkyan believes that it confirms that the spark of the conflict is in the hands of Trump, but he will not be able to control its end; which makes the cost of taking such a step very costly for the American President and his allies in the region.

Another September,
on the other hand, Iranian politician Secretary-General of the "Sabz" party Hussein Kanaani Moghaddam believes that the United States seeks to fabricate pretexts such as the September 11, 2001 attacks to impose a new war on the region that "legitimizes" through which its forces remain in the Gulf waters, and continues its interventions in the region. , According to him.

Speaking to Al-Jazeera Net, he mentioned the approval of the Iraqi parliament last January to remove foreign forces from his country, adding that Washington sees the territorial waters as a suitable alternative for Iraq to maintain its military presence near Iran, which Tehran rejects.

He described the developments in the Gulf region as very dangerous due to the American interventions in the affairs of their countries, warning that the Middle East is on the threshold of a war that may unleash its spark at any moment, explaining that what is certain is that Iran will not be the initiator of any war, but it is ready to defend Its interests and national security.

And Kanaani held that the US administration presenter was responsible for the tension in the region because of its insistence on the military presence in it, and carrying out provocative actions near Iranian waters, stressing that his country has decided its decision to respond irrevocably to any conspiracy that may target its national security.

Scenarios are
not far from the second spectrum, as the director of the Institute for International Relations, Majeed Zouari, believes that the current US administration is going in contrast to previous administrations in avoiding direct contact with Iranian forces and not escalating in the Gulf waters, which led to reaching dangerous levels of tension.

In his speech to Al-Jazeera Net, he added that what we are witnessing is a display of muscles in the American and Iranian positions, which comes in the context of intimidating the other side to discourage him from continuing the escalation, expressing his fear that tension will spin out of control because of the successive angry reactions from both sides.

He pointed out that Trump has become an urgent need to score a global achievement for his internal consumption in his next election campaign, in light of the Democratic Party's criticism of its policies, which may result in a limited conflict with Iran during the next short period by targeting the IRGC boats.

And the Iranian researcher added that the repercussions of the limited conflict scenario will be very costly for the American president, and the November elections may miss him, which may impose the other scenario, which is reflected in Washington's retreat from some regional files through direct or other negotiations with Tehran.

Zouari does not exclude the option of excluding the specter of war by reducing the US military presence in the region, especially in light of Iran's increased military capabilities, falling oil prices, changing US priorities, and containing the Chinese threat.

He concluded that Washington might resort to draining Iran's capabilities by activating extremist groups and provoking regional strife to prevent Tehran from becoming a major power.

Iran and the United States have been very tense since Washington unilaterally withdrew in 2018 from the nuclear agreement with Iran and reimposed severe economic sanctions on Tehran.