Neil Ferguson works at Imperial College London and it was his report that showed 250,000 Britons would die if Britain did not take more powerful measures against the corona virus, resulting in the "lockdown strategy" that the UK is still living.

Former state epidemiologist Johan Giesecke, however, thinks the report exaggerates the dangerousness of the virus, and it was when Neil Ferguson on the British TV site Unherd, which broadcasts news related to the pandemic, got a chance to respond to the criticism that he came up with the baffling prophecy that the number deaths in Sweden will soon begin to rise sharply. During the interview, Neil Ferguson was also pushed to the conclusions of his own report, which had such a huge impact on the lives of millions of Britons.

-I know him a little and he is normally quite arrogant, but I have never seen him as tense and nervous as during that interview, says Johan Giesecke.

Think down

However, Johan Giesecke maintains his criticism of the report, that it overestimates the danger of the virus and that the UK's reaction is exaggerated.

-Ferguson modified some pretty straightforward statements, but still seems to think that mortality is at just under one percent, while I think it is actually significantly lower, perhaps as small as 0.1 percent, says Johan Giesecke.

Will the number of deaths in Sweden rise sharply?

-No, on the contrary, I think the number will go down, although it may go up slightly then, when we get a peak in the Västra Götaland region or Skåne.

In addition, he says, health care works on the whole as it should. The goal, to keep the spread of the infection so that the health care power, seems to have succeeded, he says.

-Ecmo (a form of highly specialized intensive care) is full, but otherwise health care and intensive care work. We have problems in the elderly, but what we are learning now is that almost no other country has succeeded in stopping the spread of infection to the nursing homes, says Johan Giesecke.

Closed borders

England, Scotland, Wales, Belgium, the Netherlands, Ireland, Spain, France and Italy. In all these countries there is also a more or less large spread of infection in the elderly care. Norway is an exception, but they have smaller units in their aging care, according to Giesecke.

Why are elderly people affected?

-It is enough for a single mistake to get the infection into an old-age home. It says something about how contagious this disease is. The vast majority will suffer from it, but 99 percent only get mild symptoms. However, if you are old, it can be dangerous.

But New Zealand has managed to stop the infection completely, right?

-Yes, it seems so. But what should they do now? To keep the country virus free, they must keep their borders closed. Everyone traveling there must be in quarantine for 14 days before being admitted into the country, and if no good vaccine arrives, New Zealand must keep the quarantine for a long time. For a long time ...