World military spending at an all-time high since the Cold War

Text by: Franck Alexandre

Military spending worldwide reached its highest level last year since the end of the Cold War, a report by the Stockholm Peace Research Institute released on Monday April 27 said. And unsurprisingly, when it comes to defense, the United States always leads the way.

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With a total of 1,782 billion euros, or 1,917 billion dollars, military spending rose 3.6% in the space of a year. This is the largest increase recorded in the last decade. The Americans alone have committed $ 732 billion, or 38% of global spending. It is by far the largest military budget, a budget which in 2019 experienced inflation of more than 5%.

In this arms race, China is not to be outdone, it occupies second place in the ranking with $ 261 billion invested. And again, it's no surprise, the Middle Kingdom no longer hiding its ambition to build a world-class army capable of competing with the American superpower.

The Stockholm Peace Research Institute draws a parallel between the rise of Beijing and that of India, whose defense budget jumped by more than 7% to reach 71 billion dollars. According to the Swedish organization, "  the tensions and the rivalry of India vis-à-vis Pakistan but also China makes it possible to explain this rise  ".

Russia and Saudi Arabia are in the top 5 of the biggest spenders, with France only ranking in sixth place. But the report released on Monday also warns that if growth in military spending has accelerated in recent years, the trend could be reversed: the coronavirus pandemic, which is shaking the world economy, could lead the big powers to a potential recession.

Defense industries in France demand recovery plan

Faced with the epidemic which is paralyzing their production sites, French defense industrialists deem  a recovery plan for their activities "  fundamental ". Faced with fierce international competition, large companies in the sector are highlighting the jobs at stake in the country. Because the defense industry is made up of 16,000 employees spread across the country, often highly qualified profiles, but jobs today threatened by the looming economic crisis.

The employers' organizations of aeronautics, naval navy and land armament therefore plead for the rapid establishment of a "  New deal  ". A plan that to be effective should benefit the entire industrial chain, says economist Julien Malizard, deputy holder of the economics-defense chair of the IHEDN: “  T he latest statistics from INSEE have shown that the loss of activity was 40%. In the defense industry, it is a little more complicated because demand is emerging from the State, orders are running their course, however on the production chains, the restart is slow. What will be important in the post-crisis period is the ability to steer on the part of the State, its ability to support large groups but also small businesses according to their strategic nature. It can also come from large groups that play a pivotal role in the production system, since it is they who receive orders and dispatch in the subcontracting chain to help them withstand the economic shock . "

An example of the concern that dominates among manufacturers, the coronavirus has forced the Dassault group to stop part of its assembly lines. The aircraft manufacturer has just alerted the Indian Air Force that it would not receive in May the delivery of four Rafale aircraft on the 36 aircraft ordered in 2016.

Keep the commitments of the military programming law

In the "next world", the French army also feared being put on a diet. The ambitious military programming law 2019-2025 sets the objective of devoting 2% of GDP to defense in the long term. No one knows if this commitment be held, insists the economist Julian Malizard "  L has military planning law she will be threatened by the economic crisis ? For the moment, the amending finance laws have not affected defense budgets, there have been no budget cuts. If we look at what happened in 2008 with the last economic crisis, we see that there was first a recovery plan for defense, but that the austerity policies that followed affected the armies. If we follow this logic, it is possible that the military planning law will be called into question. That said, since 2015, the trajectory of the LPM has been respected, the President of the Republic Emmanuel Macron has made Defense a privileged sector from a budgetary point of view. There is nothing to suggest that this choice is questioned.  "

François Lecointre, chief of staff of the armies, already warns: the effort should be maintained in terms of amount and not as a percentage of GDP, which in times of crisis is likely to erode.

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