Germany: coronavirus plays spoilsport in the succession of Angela Merkel

Text by: Pascal Thibaut Follow

With more than 140,000 cases identified, Germany is one of the countries most affected by the coronavirus. The restrictive measures adopted are widely accepted and followed and allow the country to fare better than others, but German federalism gives way to more or less strict regional strategies, behind which the medium-term ambitions of the ministers- presidents show through. 

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From our correspondent in Berlin,

Asked about their respective strategies, Markus Söder, the Minister-President of Bavaria and his counterpart from North Rhine-Westphalia, Armin Laschet never fail to mention their good understanding. But at the turn of a sentence a small arrow is unchecked. When the Bavarian minister-president declares: "  We do not want an uncontrolled exit from the crisis  ", we can wonder if he is not aiming without saying his counterpart in North Rhine-Westphalia. Armin Laschet is not to be outdone: "  For us, the solution does not consist in adopting the most restrictive measures but the best ones to protect the population  ", he launched. Should we conclude that his Bavarian counterpart would take the most radical and media-driven decisions to seduce his electorate?

The two men are, alongside Angela Merkel, and of course the Minister of Health Jens Spahn (CDU), the regional bosses most present in the fight against the pandemic. Federalism obliges, the Länder play an essential role and have room for maneuver in deciding on the ground the precautionary measures to be taken.

Education is a traditional skill of the regions in Germany. They decide the programs and their content and currently the consequences of a gradual reopening of schools from May 4. Important decisions in recent weeks have been taken after a joint conference between the Chancellor and the sixteen regional bosses.

Officials from the two largest German Länder

If Armin Laschet and Markus Söder are also present in the fight against the pandemic, it is because their Länder are the most affected with 45% of the cases recorded in Germany. These two regions are also the two largest in the country.

The two Conservative politicians did not until recently have had specific disputes. But faced with the reception of many refugees in Germany in 2015, they were already in two camps. Armin Laschet, unwavering support of Angela Merkel, defended Chancellor's policy without nuances. Markus Söder, who was not yet the minister-president of Bavaria and the head of the conservative CSU party at the time, strongly criticized Berlin policy.

Two men, two strategies

Faced with the coronavirus pandemic, the two men once again defend two different strategies. Markus Söder is from the start in favor of a hard line inspired by the strict confinement practiced in France, but he could not impose his line on his colleagues. Anxious as often to prove that Bavaria is the best student in the class, the region wants to show that it does not hesitate to take strict or even unpopular measures while others would procrastinate.

Markus Söder's strategy is in any case appreciated on his lands where it is approved by 94% of the Bavarians, an almost North Korean result never recorded since the war in Germany. His party, the Christian Social Union (CSU) won 11 points in the polls compared to the last regional elections and now attracts 50% of voters. Markus Söder has the image of the decision maker who cuts in the thick, does not procrastinate; his rhetorical and media talents are undeniable.

Armin Laschet strongly opposed him to a pure and hard confinement; he fought so that the borders with the neighboring countries of his region, Belgium and the Netherlands, remain open while controls have been reintroduced elsewhere. The Minister-President of North Rhine-Westphalia criticizes the negative effects of the current measures, not only for individuals but also for the economy, and calls for a loosening of restrictions which is broader and faster than others.

During discussions last week on the reopening of certain stores from this week, Armin Laschet wrested from his counterparts that it applies to businesses of less than 800 square meters. A measure too generous and risky for Bavaria, which will apply it only next week and more strictly.

Armin Laschet had also succeeded in convincing the majority of other regions that strict confinement, as advocated by Bavaria, was not the right solution. Despite these successes, the Christian Democrat is on the defensive. The concerns expressed by Angela Merkel on numerous statements in recent days about the removal of containment which could harm the good results achieved so far by Germany in the fight against the virus, can also be understood as a veiled criticism against his faithful.

A battle for Merkel's estate?

The two men, Armin Laschet as Markus Söder, embody two strategies in the fight against the pandemic, two styles too. They declare of course that only this constant fight occupies them currently. But this rivalry is not entirely harmless a year and a half from the next general elections and the political withdrawal of Angela Merkel.

At the CDU, the campaign between the contenders for party leadership (and indirectly for the chancellery race) has been muted. After the resignation of Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer in February, an extraordinary congress at the end of this week was to decide this question. It was cancelled. Armin Laschet is in the running, in a team with the Minister of Health Jens Spahn, currently omnipresent. The two men thus combine the centrist and more conservative wings of the CDU.

Facing them, Friedrich Merz, historical rival to Angela Merkel, narrowly beaten in December 2018 by Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer. This curator who left the political world today has only social networks and a few interviews to make people talk about him. The chairman of the Bundestag's Foreign Affairs Committee, Norbert Röttgen, has appeared from the start.

The Laschet-Spahn duo were favorites before the pandemic started. Today, this unprecedented crisis, which will no doubt dominate German political life until the September 2021 elections, is reshuffling the cards. Those who in a few months will have, by their action against the virus, scored points politically will be able to collect the dividends.

If the appointment of the president of the CDU is up to the latter, the candidate for the chancellery of the conservative bloc is the fruit of an agreement between the two parties which compose it, the Christian Democrats and their allies Bavarian CSU. The latter had in the past two candidates for the chancellery which failed. Markus Söder keeps saying that his future is in Bavaria and not elsewhere. But the current crisis, with an uncertain outcome in all areas, does not exclude any hypothesis.

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• Germany
• Angela Merkel
• Coronavirus
• Health and Medicine

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