Forecasts for Sweden's economy in the future are dark. In order to meet the great interest in the effects of the corona crisis, Statistics Sweden has chosen to issue preliminary sales statistics for March based on the VAT register and production value statistics.

With a reservation that the figures may be adjusted when the official statistics are released on May 5, the business value of the business sector appears to have surprisingly increased.

-I was surprised that business was so strong in March. This may be because we kept society open. During the same period, we can see that France's activity indicator fell by 35 percent, says Daniel Lennartsson, Statistics Sweden.

Vigorous race in some industries

But the differences are large between different industries. Travel agency sales fell by 60 percent in March, hotels by 37 percent and restaurants by 23 percent. The airline industry's sales fell by 49 percent.

At the same time, large sectors such as the manufacturing industry increased by four percent in March and grocery trade by a full 9 percent.

However, Daniel Lennartsson flags for indications of significantly weaker figures in April. Lars Calmfors, economist at Stockholm University, also thinks that the picture will change dramatically this month.

- In March, the crisis had only partially impacted. One explanation is also that the grocery trade, which is large, went well. Part of it is that we replaced restaurant visits with food purchases and some are hamstrings that will hit back with lower purchases going forward, he says.

Expected increase

Lars Calmfors also thinks that it should be borne in mind that without the corona crisis, we could have expected several percent increase due to inflation and growth.

He does not rule out that the economy may have benefited from Sweden having fewer restrictions than many other countries that closed their communities in March. But this does not necessarily have to be the case if you sum up over a longer period of time.

- We may be allowed to drive at half speed longer, while other countries that have a more drastic shutdown may have a shorter period of reduced activity and come back faster.

Lars Calmfors points out that there may also be more restrictions in Sweden that slow down the economy.

-We are at a lower level than the highest levels in France, Italy and Spain, but there you see a decline now which we do not.