Iranian satellite .. Why arouse Washington's concerns?

Mohammed Al-Minshawi-Washington

The Iranian announcement of the success of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards in launching a satellite for military purposes was met with shock and confusion in the American capital.

During a press conference at the White House on Wednesday evening, President Donald Trump replied to a question about the Iranian military satellite by saying, "We are watching Tehran closely." Before that, he confirmed that there were orders to shoot any Iranian boat approaching American ships in the area.

Initial news reports indicated that the American intelligence services lied to the Iranian claim about its success in launching a military satellite.

Reports also indicated that a defense official said that the intelligence had not monitored the entry of any Iranian satellite into Earth's orbit, adding that "the information suggests that the launch failed."

But CNN confirmed during its evening programs late on Wednesday that the Pentagon’s assessment concluded that the Iranian satellite launch test had been successful for the first time after several failed attempts in the past.

The ambiguity of the launch
, and the military expert David de Roche of the National Defense University in Washington tweeted, “Iran is launching the first military satellite, theoretically that means that it has possibilities of launching intercontinental missiles.” If this estimate is correct, this will be a dangerous development in the escalating confrontation between Tehran and Washington. .

For his part, sees Professor at the Center for Near East and South Asia at the US National Defense University, Judit Bahgat, that the US government has not yet confirmed that "Iran has succeeded in launching the satellite."

Bahjat stressed in an interview with Al-Jazeera Net that, "If the Iranian novel is correct, it will not be a surprise. Iran has been trying for years to launch satellites and was always defeated like everything else in life. If you try again, you will one day be able to succeed."

In an interview with Al-Jazeera Net, David de Roch stressed that the Iranian move is "an Iranian achievement in light of the repeated failures witnessed in their past experiences. Now Iran has four satellites, and the last only has a military nature, and this does not mean much."

The US State Department expressed its general condemnation of Iran's missile and space programs, considering them in violation of Security Council Resolution 2231, and called on member states to take a decisive stand against the Iranian move.

The resolution calls on Iran to "refrain from any activity related to ballistic missiles designed to carry nuclear warheads, including those that use ballistic missile technology," and Iran denies that its missiles are intended to carry nuclear warheads, and that its programs do not violate international resolutions.

For his part, former US Ambassador David Mac assured Al-Jazeera Net that "Iranian experts amplify their country's military and technological capabilities, to intimidate Arab countries on the other side of the Gulf."

"Senior Trump administration officials may have underestimated the technical and technological capabilities of the Iranians, while inflating Iran's hostile intentions," said Mac.

Iranian messages
Professor Jawdat Bahgat notes to Al-Jazeera Net that "Iran is sending a message that, despite the sanctions and the spread of the Corona virus, it is able to advance and improve its military capabilities."

De Roch believes that the regime in Tehran "wants to appear in a good position, especially after the resounding failure that resulted in the downing of a civilian passenger plane after taking off from Tehran airport earlier this year."

American military experts disagree about Iran's capabilities that allow it to launch a satellite, and those related to the ability to launch long-range and intercontinental missiles.

Experiences of other countries show that "ICBM technology can be used to launch satellites for non-military uses, but the opposite is not certain. The ability to launch a satellite does not automatically mean that there is an ability to launch ICBMs," according to Professor Bahgat.

The range of the missiles:
"The length of the intercontinental missile range is estimated at 5,500 km, but the capacity of the Iranian satellite does not exceed 2000 km," said military expert David de Roch.

"Of course this is progress, but it remains limited progress in the end," he added. "Iran's missiles are of North Korea's heavyweights, and it is very difficult to turn them into ICBMs."

De Roche underestimates the importance of Iran launching the satellite successfully, saying that "thirty years ago a few countries owned the satellites, now those satellites own many private companies that have technology that allows a satellite to be placed in its orbit, so what the Iranians have achieved is of no value A big military to him, they are aiming for gains in improving the image and public relations. "

Bahjat agrees with de Roch in assessing the size of the Iranian achievement, and concluded that "it is important not to exaggerate about Iran's military and intelligence capabilities, and if Iran's success in launching a satellite for espionage purposes is confirmed, this is an important achievement, but the United States and its allies in the region still have technological capabilities And more military than its Iranian counterpart. "