- The 27 leaders of the European Union are meeting this Thursday by videoconference, to talk about an economic recovery plan and borders in the context of the coronavirus epidemic.
- The divisions are such that it seems unlikely that consensus will be reached on Thursday. Debt pooling, demanded by France, Italy and Spain, in particular, is rejected by the Netherlands and Germany.
- Without agreement on a financial mechanism of solidarity between member states, the EU risks seeing mistrust in it, warn several heads of state.
Finding consensus at 27, by videoconference, on subjects as delicate as economic recovery or the closing of borders, such is the perilous program of the European summit on Thursday. Since the arrival of the coronavirus epidemic on the Old Continent, the leaders of the member states of the European Union have already met (virtually) three times. This time, the exchanges should last several hours, and will take place, for some leaders, from their home. And the divisions are such that the 27 should postpone any decision.
An economic rescue plan
The economic recovery project will be at the heart of trade, while most of the 27 have confined their population and that the EU's GDP should drop by 7.1% in 2020, a record. "A majority emerges on the idea of a European rescue plan, but the divisions remain on the tools," explains Christian Lequesne, professor at Sciences Po. The amount released should be incommensurate with what the EU had drawn after the 2008 financial crisis, since Mario Centeno, president of the Eurogroup, mentioned a range of 700 to 1.500 billion euros, while Bruno Le Maire, French Minister of Economy, suggested a sum of l 'around 1,000 billion.
But how to finance this plan? Emmanuel Macron pleads, with eight other European leaders, for a common debt. The French president defends the creation of a fund, which would issue a common debt, to finance member states according to their needs. This is what some call "coronabonds" (formed by the prefix corona, and bond , an English word designating a bond, that is to say, a debt buyout). But the idea divides the 27: if Italy and Spain, among others, share this initiative, Germany, the Netherlands and other northern countries are opposed to a pooling of debt. "They do not trust the management of public finances in a certain number of countries, including ours," explains Christian Lequesne.
"European solidarity is an obligation," sums up the Elysée on the subject of the French position, which however comes up against the principle of reality. “The lines have moved a lot, and some countries are opening up to the idea of joint debt. But Thursday will be a milestone, ”said the presidency. On the side of Northern European countries like the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, the idea of financing a recovery plan by borrowing from the European Union itself seems indeed have made its way. The Elysée remains cautious, however, assuming that "the discussions will continue for several weeks" and may not be successful until June.
The question of borders
This is the other sensitive issue. Regarding the borders between member states, the 27 reacted in a dispersed order to the epidemic, some closing their borders (Spain, Poland, among others), others restoring controls (Germany for example). Paris is in favor of a rapid reopening of the intra-European borders, but the subject should be discussed this Thursday.
"If the EU wants an economic recovery, it goes without saying that closing internal borders is contradictory to the idea of free movement of goods and people in the common market", underlines Christian Lequesne.
As for the external borders, they could remain closed "at least until the summer", it is estimated at the Elysée Palace. But there is not, at this stage, consensus among the 27 on a possible date.
A question of survival for the EU?
An agreement on a financial mechanism to help the countries in greatest difficulty is crucial for Brussels, while European management of the coronavirus epidemic is reviving euroscepticism in several states, notably in Italy, already marked by the migration crisis there is a few years old. "The far-right party of Matteo Salvini insists that Europe is doing nothing for Italy, this puts the head of government Giuseppe Conte in embarrassment, and forces him to hold a hard speech vis-à-vis of Brussels ”, notes Christian Lequesne.
The fight against the rise of euroscepticism will not be the only argument of the pro-coronabond States at this summit. They will also be able to highlight more pragmatic elements. “The Dutch and German economies are based on exports, but if the countries of southern Europe stop consuming, this will harm them. Italy and France can also brandish the risk of a new monetary crisis in the eurozone, if the members of the North let them sink alone into the recession, ”says Christian Lequesne. As often, "the German position is key," said the EU specialist.
A subject could more easily reach consensus, that of European sovereignty in matters of drugs and sanitary equipment such as masks or respirators. On this subject at least, Paris and Berlin are already in agreement.
Politics
Coronavirus: "In Italy, the crisis has been terrible for the image of the EU", laments former Prime Minister Enrico Letta
- Coronavirus
- Covid 19
- Economy
- EU
- Europe