(Fighting against New Coronary Pneumonia) Sino-Singapore Times Comment: Six accounts should be counted in view of China's economic trend
China News Agency, Beijing, April 17 Question: China's economic situation must be counted as six books
China News Agency reporter Zhou Rui
Since its release in 1992, China ’s quarterly GDP data has declined for the first time.
This result shocked the market, but it was not too unexpected.
In the face of the impact of the epidemic and observing the long-term trend of China's economy, six "accounts" must be counted.
—— "Economic Account" and "Health Account"
If we take “about 6%”, which is a common expectation value in the market before the outbreak, as a reference, the potential GDP decline in the first quarter of “-6.8%” is 12.8%.
The reason for the reversal of the growth rate is clearly visible. In order to stop the spread of the virus, Wuhan, with a population of tens of millions, was officially closed on January 23. Tens of millions of Chinese “houses” at home have caused a large number of shops to close and factories to shut down.
The magnitude of the economic loss is self-evident. Compared with the total economic volume of 21 trillion yuan (RMB, the same below) in the same period of 2019, the scale of China's GDP growth in the first quarter of 2020 must be calculated in trillions.
Is it worth the price to prevent and control the epidemic? China ’s answer is yes.
For China, the goal of development is to satisfy people ’s longing for a better life. And health is the prerequisite for all good lives.
Although in the process of epidemic prevention and control, the trend of economic downturn and tight fiscal expenditure has already emerged, China has always regarded people's health as a top priority.
As far as the medical expenses of inpatients diagnosed with New Coronary Pneumonia are concerned, the per capita expenditure of 21,500 yuan and more than 150,000 yuan for severe patients are borne by the state.
As the epidemic prevention and control situation continues to improve, China's resumption of production and production is accelerating.
At the moment when the epidemic spreads globally, it was the previous choice to ensure people's health at the cost of the economy, allowing China to control the epidemic and free up its hands to restart the economy.
—— "Overall Account" and "Trend Account"
The "cost" of basically blocking the spread of the local epidemic is that the overall Chinese economy is in a difficult situation.
In recent years, the mainstay of China's economic growth, if divided according to the tertiary industry, is borne by the service industry. If viewed from the troika, the main contribution comes from consumption.
But under the prevention and control requirements of reducing aggregation and national isolation, both have been hit hard.
In terms of consumption, although the online data is dazzling, the total is still shrinking by 19%, the first drop among various indicators. In the service industry, although the isolation of people at home has led to an increase of 13.2% in information transmission services, it is difficult to change the overall weakness.
The overall weakening of indicators such as industry, consumption, investment, employment, and household income shows the huge impact of the Chinese economy in the first quarter.
However, China's economy has not been "washed out". Both basic needs and materials for epidemic prevention and control have been kept in sufficient supply, and relatively stable employment data has also become a rare but crucial bright color.
If you look at the split in the first quarter. In March, the decline in important data such as industrial added value above the designated size, the national service industry production index, total retail sales of social consumer goods, and national fixed asset investment all narrowed significantly from January to February.
This means that with the advancement of epidemic prevention and control, the trend of China's economic recovery has already emerged. In the long run, the fundamentals of China ’s long-term economic improvement have not changed, and the impact of the epidemic is short-term and generally controllable.
Looking back at history, the impact of the epidemic is generally only an "episode" and will not change a country's long-term development trend. Therefore, if measures can be taken to continue the upward trend in March, the Chinese economy is expected to return to the theme of growth.
In the future, while maintaining a reasonable growth rate, China's economy is expected to continue to move toward a high-quality development stage by transforming its development mode, optimizing its economic structure, and transforming its growth momentum.
—— "Local Account" and "Global Account"
In addition to its own efforts, the future trend of China's economy depends on the global environment.
With the global spread of the epidemic, the decline in economic vitality has already emerged in many countries. This led some Chinese foreign trade companies to resume work and resume production, but found that the order had been cancelled.
At present, the number of diagnoses in the world has exceeded 2.15 million, and the alarm of the global economic recession has been raised.
The IMF previously predicted that the global economy will fall by 3% year-on-year in 2020, the US is expected to fall by 5.9%, and the euro zone will fall by 7.5%. In this case, no country can be alone.
China's resumption of production and production is more significant. The restoration of China's production capacity will provide sufficient material support for countries to fight against epidemics; the resumption of their consumption vitality will, as always, provide impetus for the economic development of various countries.
Once the situation in various countries improves, China's weak external demand situation and the impact of overseas conventional monetary policy will also be significantly alleviated, thus further condensing momentum for economic recovery.
From this perspective, facing the impact of the epidemic, China and the world have stood together. Only by strengthening international cooperation and controlling the epidemic in the shortest time can countries promote the world economy to return to normal track as soon as possible, so that all countries can benefit from it. (Finish)