China News Service, April 16 (BBC) Chinese website reported on the 16th that in response to the spread of the new coronary pneumonia epidemic, the United Kingdom began a comprehensive blockade on March 23. The "closure of the city" is essential to suppress the spread of the virus, but it seriously interferes with people's livelihood. The relevant bill stipulates that the British government must announce its next plan by April 16.
However, before Downing Street is a series of major decisions: when to act? What restrictions are lifted? How to control the spread of viruses? How to balance the lives saved in the short term and the economy and society in the long term? The report pointed out that the difficulty of unblocking is huge and it is necessary to prepare for a protracted war.
On April 4, local time, during the spread of the new crown epidemic in London, England, residents took a "step up" fitness class under the leadership of Simon Garner.
1. Why can't it be fully unblocked?
According to reports, even if the epidemic has peaked and the infection rate has dropped to a very low level, the United Kingdom cannot immediately return to normalcy. The best prediction is that only 4% of people in the UK who are already infected (that is, likely to be immunized), or 63 million people, are still potential targets.
Suddenly unblocked completely, the virus may spread. Only by reducing the infection rate by 60-70% can cases be reduced. Therefore, it is necessary to reduce human contact at the same time.
If you want to stop social alienation, you must simultaneously take other measures to suppress the virus, at least to prevent the infection from getting worse and entering intensive care.
2. Can strengthening detection and tracking effectively curb the spread of the virus?
The report believes that a substantial increase in detection is the prerequisite for the so-called "trace and destroy" strategy. That is to identify cases, detect contacts, and isolate before spreading.
The picture shows the Trafalgar Square in central London under the epidemic. China News Service reporter Zhang Pingshe
This was the kind of measure that was first adopted in the United Kingdom when there were cases, when there were only a few imported cases in the United Kingdom. If the tracing is successful, the spread of the virus can be controlled.
However, even with large-scale testing, it is impossible to return to normal immediately. Other measures must be taken at the same time to prevent the epidemic from resurgent, and these measures must be maintained for a long time. Because there is no fundamental change in the epidemic: if there is a virus, it will spread, and the vulnerable people are more likely to develop serious illness after being infected.
In addition, large-scale detection projects are huge, and actions must be rapid to ensure that they are ahead of the virus. Furthermore, this strategy may be most effective only when there are not too many cases.
The picture shows the platform of the London underground station in the epidemic. China News Service reporter Zhang Pingshe
3. Can the protection of high-risk groups control the epidemic?
Now that the UK is trying to curb the spread of the virus at all levels of society, can it be changed to control the spread of the virus among the highest-risk groups?
The analysis said that the British closure measures were taken to prevent paralysis of intensive care and to ensure that high-risk groups are not infected.
Professor Woolhouse of the University of Edinburgh said, "For 80% of non-high-risk populations, the new coronavirus is indeed terrifying ... However, this will not overwhelm the health care system, nor will it cause the entire society to be banned. Risk ... there may be more room, and even some restrictions may be relaxed forever. "
At present, high-risk groups in the UK must be isolated at home for 12 weeks. Reinforcement measures taken by the government may include that all medical staff, care workers, and people visiting the elderly must be regularly tested to ensure that they do not carry viruses. It is best to have antibody tests to confirm that they have been immunized. But the danger is that the more viruses circulating in the community, the harder it is to control.
The picture shows the Queen's Theatre in West End. China News Service reporter Zhang Pingshe
4. Can it be unsealed in phases and batches?
Kuchaski, of the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Diseases, said that on the whole, some interpersonal communication and activities (virus transmission) are less risky. His view is that the restrictive measures are roughly divided into three levels: low, medium and high according to the risk of communication.
Low risk includes outdoor exercise. The current British government's recommendation is that everyone can exercise outdoors once a day for a period of one hour. Medium risks include allowing some stores that sell non-essential items to resume business, or allowing people to occasionally meet outside the home. Higher-risk measures include resumption of work, resumption of classes, patient and family isolation, etc.
However, the report believes that it is very difficult to weigh the sequence of unblocking, and it is necessary to comprehensively consider the social and economic interests and the risk of stopping the spread of the virus.
Ferguson, a professor at Imperial College London, said that a series of methods must be found to continuously control the spread of the virus. "Undoubtedly, the unblocking may be decided separately according to age and region ... A general test in the community is needed to effectively isolate patients and identify the virus transmission area."
The picture shows the Westminster Bridge in London, England.
5. Is it expected to " unblock " after the epidemic peaks ?
After the peak of the epidemic, you still need to consider to what extent you should continue to suppress the spread of the virus. Efforts can be made to minimize the infection rate, which can prevent the resurgence of the epidemic more effectively. But the price of this option is that the blockade must be maintained for a longer period of time.
Another option is to end the blockade as soon as possible and recognize that a large number of cases will continue to exist in the community. What can also be considered is whether to continue the blockade nationwide, or to decide according to regions or even cities, and focus the blockade on the epidemic areas.
According to the BBC, the vaccine is the most likely to break the deadlock. However, it will be some time before reliable vaccines are launched. All we can do now is wait. In the coming months, at least some people's lives may be closer to normal. However, it is still a difficult and protracted battle before the United Kingdom.