In recent weeks, President Bolsonaro and Minister of Health Luiz Henrique Mandetta have been in open feud before 212 million big-eyed Brazilians. Bolsonaro has repeatedly toned down the risks of the corona virus and made angry results against the health minister and governors of the states that restricted economic activity.
More popular than President
Health Minister Mandetta has publicly defied Bolsonaro's line and advocated social distance as the only way to curb the virus infection. It has made him more popular than the president - something that tormented Bolsonaro and probably contributed to the decision to get rid of Mandetta.
The new Minister of Health Nelson Teich is a respected physician and outspoken supporter of Bolsonaro. But he has no experience working in Brazil's giant public health care system. Teich has promised to pursue a science-based policy but has already signaled that he wants to find ways for Brazil to get the economy back on track as quickly as possible. And these are exactly the words that President Bolsonaro wants to hear.
Worst recession in a hundred years
When photographer Sara Murillo Cortes and I visited Brazil in February, a cautious optimism was noticed that the economy had started to turn upwards after a few heavy years. It was a very welcome development for Bolsonaro who was chosen on the promise of economic growth and now saw his chances of being re-elected increase.
But in just a few weeks the situation has changed completely. The corona virus has definitely put a stop to the economic recovery. According to a recent forecast from the International Monetary Fund, Brazil's economy is expected to shrink by 5.3 percent this year - the worst recession in over a hundred years. And for every week the virus cripples the economy, the loss is estimated to be 0.5 percent.
Bolsonaro part of the "ostrich alliance"
Bolsonaro's chances of winning the 2022 presidential election are rising in smoke. A majority of Brazilians disapprove of the president for his handling of the corona crisis. And in the international arena, Brazil's president is increasingly isolated. Only Belarus despot Lukashenko, Turkmenistan's strong man Berdymukhamedov, Nicaragua's Christian socialist leader Ortega and Brazil's Bolsonaro refuse to take the corona virus seriously. In the reputed Financial Times, the quartet is called the "Ostrich Alliance".
According to the latest statistics, Brazil has over 30,000 confirmed cases of covid-19 and almost 2,000 people have so far died of the virus. But the country currently lacks equipment to perform massive tests and the darkness is large. According to a group of researchers, the actual figure may be over 300,000 infected.
The president shows who decides
The dramatic change of minister takes place at a very sensitive time. Work to fight the corona virus now risks losing momentum just as Brazil is heading into the most critical phase of the epidemic over the next few weeks. And the political turmoil is about to deepen. Bolsonar supporters have openly defied calls from local authorities to stay home. At the same time, the saucepan protests against Bolsonaro that happen almost every night will be renewed.
In recent weeks, rumors have circulated that influential militaries in the Brazilian government have taken control of the country and restricted Bolsonaro's ability to exercise its power. Now the president is definitely setting the point for those speculations. By kicking the Minister of Health, Bolsonaro has shown that it is he who decides. But it is a demonstration of strength that risks endangering Brazilian health.