Analysis: A Russia without Putin?

Yes, that's what nobody knows, and which everyone is afraid of. Disorder and economic disasters, as under Putin's representatives - Boris Yeltsin and Michail Gorbachev? Better then with stability under Vladimir Putin.

When, in a speech to the nation on January 15, Putin said that the Constitution should be changed, it was in fact two things that attracted attention. First: Parliament's power would be strengthened and the president's power weakened. Then: as today, the president would not only be allowed to sit for two terms in a row, but no more than two periods in total.

We who are trying to understand what is happening in Russia began to speculate feverishly. That Putin would relinquish control, retire and move to Sardinia with his friend Silvio Berlusconi seemed unlikely. But yes, maybe. Although more likely to become head of the country's so-called state councils and thus be able to decide on both parliament and the next president.

So time went on and it became clear that something more was in the works, though unclear what. But the answer came with thunder and broke on March 10. MP and cosmonaut Valentina Tereshkova (who became the first woman in space in 1963) proposed an addition to the constitution that solved the whole problem.

When the new constitution comes into force, the current and past Russian presidential terms of office should be counted out, she suggested.

- Thanks, so Putin.

And so it became. The amendment to the Constitution is approved by Parliament, all regions of the country, the Constitutional Court and signed by the President. The so-called "popular vote" that would give the whole popular varnish is postponed. But that vote, if it is carried out, in any case has no practical significance. It is advisory and there are no requirements for voting.

What matters is what Putin himself wants. And after twenty years of almost absolute power, there are currently no realistic alternatives to Putin. There are no working political parties, no critical media of importance, and Putin has not brought up any successor.

But can he hold on to this gigantic and thoroughly corrupt state for another 16 years? I doubt. Today he is a decent looking 67-year-old. But lately he has begun to look tired and worn out. Maybe he - like Yeltsin anyway - starts to look for a successor who guarantees freedom of prosecution and that he can keep his fortune. A quiet old age at a residence in Sochi, on the Black Sea, maybe?

The Foreign Office is published every Wednesday evening on SVT Play. It is also broadcast in SVT2 on Wednesday 22.15. Program Manager: Johan Ripås. You can find the entire program here.