China News Service, Beijing, April 10 "If China is the first stage, European and American countries are the second stage, and the third stage should be a developing country, especially in Africa, South Asia, and Latin America."

Zeng Guang, member of the high-level expert group of the National Health and Health Commission, made the above statement in a video interview with ChinaNews on the 10th. Looking at the global epidemic, he predicted that developing countries are very likely to be the next battlefield of the global epidemic.

The global epidemic has yet to see "light"

Be wary of the next battlefield: developing countries

According to real-time statistics from Johns Hopkins University in the United States, as of 8:21 on April 10th, Beijing time, there were more than 1.59 million confirmed cases of new coronary pneumonia and more than 95,000 deaths worldwide.

When will the new coronary pneumonia epidemic that is ravaging the world see an "inflection point"? This is undoubtedly the most concerned and difficult question for all mankind.

A few days ago, when US President Trump talked about the US epidemic, he said, "We are beginning to see the light at the end of the tunnel."

In Zeng Guang's view, such a judgment may be too optimistic.

"From a global perspective, I haven't seen the bright light. Before I saw the bright light, I don't know how long the tunnel is. There is no way to judge." Zeng Guang said that the new coronary pneumonia is a brand-new disease, which is currently unknown There are too many things, and in addition, it is impossible to judge other countries by taking China's national defense control model, control strength and control time.

The different detection capabilities and treatment levels of various countries and regions have added some uncertainty to the global epidemic situation. Zeng Guang predicted that developing countries are very likely to be the next battlefield in the global epidemic.

"If China is the first stage, European and American countries are the second stage, and the third stage should be a developing country, especially in Africa, South Asia, and Latin America. These countries may have relatively large problems in detection power and treatment capacity. We do n’t know how long the epidemic will last there. "

It is worth mentioning that in the interview, the overseas epidemic situation was mentioned. Zeng Guang mentioned that in the early stage of the epidemic, there were very few overseas cases, and the main cases were all in China. "We think about it. If we took measures that were synchronized with China at that time, then they should be controlled before us. Because they had fewer cases, everyone was at the same level. If they were not controlled, only two problems could be explained. One problem is that there may be other sources besides Wuhan. We have not found that it may be abroad. Another problem may be because their anti-epidemic measures are not in place. "

Zeng Guang is a guest of China New Network Video Interview

Recalling Wuhan's choice of "closing the city"

Anxious, two or three Wuhan will appear a few days later

At 10:00 on January 23, Wuhan closed the Lihan Channel, officially "closing the city." It was really a difficult choice to "close" a regional central city with a population of tens of millions of people. However, in Wuhan and Hubei at the time, the epidemic situation was already critical.

"We made this suggestion on January 20th. People from Wuhan should not go out and people from outside should not come in." As a member of the high-level expert group of the National Health and Health Commission, Zeng Guang recalled the special period more than two months ago. "Be anxious" to describe your mood.

Zeng Guang said that the expert group arrived in Wuhan late on the night of January 18, and through the research and judgment of the local epidemic situation the next day, learned about the spread of Wuhan and the situation of its people. "Why were we so anxious at that time? Because the Spring Festival has already begun."

Zeng Guang said, "Fengcheng" has no plan and no time to make preparations. "If you prepare for" Fengcheng "after three to five days, there may be two or three Wuhans in China."

He believes that Wuhan's "closing the city" actually divides China into two "battlefields". One battlefield is Wuhan, or Hubei in a broader sense; the second is provinces other than Hubei Province.

Over the past two months, when talking about Wuhan's "unblocking", Zeng Guang said that the people of Wuhan have indeed made sacrifices, and they have stood firm for 76 days.

In Zeng Guang's view, from "closing the city" to "unblocking", Wuhan's epidemic prevention and control has taken several key measures.

These measures include the establishment of a wartime headquarters, "four containment", rapid mobilization of anti-epidemic materials, and strict community control. The effects of these comprehensive measures have eased the epidemic in Wuhan and gradually kept pace with the country.

"Naturally, Wuhan Kaifeng." Zeng Guang said.

Data map: Jiangxi Nanchang High-tech Zone quickly sent employees far away from Qinghai, Gansu, Yunnan and other places to the enterprise through charter flights. Image courtesy of Jiangxi Provincial Department of Industry and Information Technology

What are the challenges of normalized epidemic prevention and control?

Overseas imports, epidemic "dark fire", resumption of production

The epidemic situation in China has eased, but the prevention and control situation cannot be relaxed. When Wuhan is "unblocked", China is already deploying "normalized epidemic prevention and control."

In this regard, Zeng Guang analyzed that the reason why epidemic prevention and control should be "normalized" should be understood from many aspects. At present, China's prevention and control are faced with many challenges, such as the risk of overseas imports, the prevention and control of asymptomatic infected persons, and the dynamic prevention and control in the context of resumption of labor and production.

"Infectious diseases are a global problem, not only a problem of China, so if the world is not solved, China ’s problems cannot be completely solved." Zeng Guang said that as long as there are sources of infection abroad, China is threatened at any time, "now foreign defense imports Cases have become our main cases ".

In addition, since late March, the cases of asymptomatic infections exposed in many places have gradually become the focus of public opinion. Compared with the confirmed cases, the public is more worried that "dark arrows are difficult to prevent".

According to Zeng Guang, the reason why the asymptomatic infected people are so important at this stage is closely related to the characteristics of the situation.

"It's like a forest fire. The biggest problem after an open fire is a dark fire, which is an asymptomatic infected person." He said that now the stage of preventing the rebound of the epidemic is focused on preventing and controlling these "dark fires" of asymptomatic infected people.

Zeng Guang said that now he can breathe a sigh of relief, but he cannot relax.

"We have to resume work and return to production, the hospital has to be fully open, and we can't always close the door to foreign countries. I think in this dynamic environment, how to do a good job of prevention and treatment is the challenge we are facing now."

Zeng Guang said that the critical moment of public health prevention and control is at all costs, but in the long run, the costs must be considered and investment must be considered. The most sensible input is epidemiological information, which is used to determine what we are mainly doing.

He mentioned that there must be a balance between epidemic prevention and control and resumption of production.

Data map: On April 8, local time, on the 23rd day of France's closure of the city due to the new coronary pneumonia epidemic, medical staff adjusted their protective equipment in a hospital in Bagnolet, near Paris.

Analyze the misunderstanding of overseas epidemic prevention

Group immunization is a book business, it is necessary to wear a mask!

The global spread of new pneumonia, such as "Is the group immune reliable" or "Whether to wear a mask", etc., some views on the prevention and control of the epidemic once caused great controversy.

Regarding the concept of "group immunization" put forward by the countries concerned, Zeng Guang believes that this is really a "book business spirit", which does not work in practice.

"When this kind of theory is turned into practice is very terrible." Zeng Guang said that no country really implements group immunization. On the contrary, they are all adjusting to the direction of strict prevention and control. They have also closed the city and banned their feet. The gathering of two people is stricter than in China.

Another cause of international controversy is the need to wear masks.

"New Coronary Pneumonia is spread by the respiratory tract, droplets, or even aerosols. As long as there is such spread, you should wear a mask." Zeng Guang said.

"Many overseas friends told me that the infection rate of overseas Chinese is lower than that of local communities." Zeng Guang reminded that for Chinese compatriots who are overseas, wearing masks is very important, although some places do not see Chinese people wearing masks. I am used to even having physical conflicts, but I must insist on wearing masks and washing my hands at the same time overseas, and do not go to places where people are concentrated. (Finishing: Lang Lang Song Yusheng Yang Yuqi Yuan Xiuyue) (End)