(Fighting against New Coronary Pneumonia) When will the epidemic end? ——Zhong Nanshan Dialogue with Korean Experts
China News Agency, Seoul, April 10 (Reporter Zeng Nai) Why is China "closing the city"? When does the epidemic end? … Zhong Nanshan, an academician of the Chinese Academy of Engineering, and South Korean experts exchanged live media in the media on the 10th.
Why is China "closing the city"?
"What is China's standard for 'closing the city'?" South Korean experts first asked.
Zhong Nanshan explained that the reference to the outbreak in China is inaccurate. China has a vast territory and it is precisely said to be the "outbreak in Wuhan". Based on this concept, Zhong Nanshan said that "sealing" Wuhan first will allow other regions to have the opportunity to prevent and support Wuhan.
Talking about China's national defense control, Zhong Nanshan said that since the expert group proposed that new coronary pneumonia has clear human-to-human characteristics, Chinese officials will soon take action. He said that the prevention and control of infectious diseases are mainly "suppression" and "mitigation". Although it will affect the economy, China still adopts "suppression" measures; through strong interventions such as national group prevention and control, China has basically controlled the epidemic within four weeks.
Li Zhongqiu, a professor at the Medical College of Seoul National University in South Korea, claimed that he was "impressed" with China's practices, and South Korea also learned from China's experience, such as classifying and treating patients according to their severity, and establishing a Korean version of "square cabin hospital".
In February this year, Daegu's "Xintiandi Church" collective infection caused an outbreak in South Korea. As of 0:00 on April 10, South Korea time, South Korea had accumulatively diagnosed 10,450 cases, with 27 new cases in the past 24 hours. The epidemic situation is showing a easing trend.
Li Zhongqiu claimed that South Korea has "overcomed a major crisis" and is currently mainly preventing and controlling small-scale infections. However, he has a worry: the epidemic caused some countries to block borders, etc., which may weaken international cooperation.
In this regard, Zhong Nanshan said that the new coronavirus is the common enemy of mankind. Although different countries have different views, Chinese academic circles and the international community have been closely communicating, hoping that China and South Korea will conduct more exchanges in the treatment.
Xing Haiming, Chinese ambassador to South Korea, said that in the past three months, China and South Korea have worked together to fight against the epidemic. The prevention and control of the epidemic according to their respective national conditions has been a model for the success of the international community.
How to prevent and control overseas imports?
At present, both China and South Korea face the risk of internal defense rebound and external defense import. How to prevent and control them? Zhong Nanshan believes that it is unrealistic for large cities to completely clear imported cases, as long as they are controlled at a low level.
He said that visitors from areas with severe epidemics are highly contagious, but as long as strict monitoring and tracking are adopted to isolate those diagnosed in time, even if an infection occurs, it will not cause an outbreak.
People with asymptomatic infections also cause concern. Statistics from South Korea show that over 75% of the diagnosed people in the "Xintiandi Church" in Daegu have no obvious symptoms.
Zhong Nanshan said that asymptomatic patients mainly have close contact with the diagnosed or come from key epidemic areas. Most people are infectious; a small number of people are always asymptomatic, and it is doubtful whether they are infectious. He said he would rather treat all asymptomatic persons as possible infectious agents.
When does the epidemic end?
Talking about the global epidemic situation, Zhong Nanshan believes that it mainly depends on the disease itself and the national epidemic prevention situation.
From the analysis of the laws of infectious diseases, he said that the New Coronary Pneumonia virus is suitable for survival in the human body, with strong spread and high lethal rate. The development trend of general respiratory diseases will decrease in summer. He said that the death rate of new coronary pneumonia in some areas has reached 10%, and vaccines should be developed, and the cost of group immunization is too high.
Zhong Nanshan said that he is more worried about the situation in the United States; the outbreak of any country can't make the world peaceful. The key to curbing and reducing infections requires joint action.
Li Zhongqiu predicted that the "spread" status of a small number of new cases in South Korea and China will continue until the end of the year. Large-scale outbreaks in the United States, Europe and other places are expected to improve after this summer.
How to define the end of the outbreak? Zhong Nanshan believes that after more than a month has passed since the peak of the epidemic in some countries, the people can "move up"; even if the epidemic "returns" next year, society already knows about the disease and will not see the same situation again.
He said: "This disease cannot be eradicated completely and may spread in the future for a long time." Zhong Nanshan said, as long as there is no large-scale spread.
When it comes to vaccines, Chinese and South Korean experts believe that it is difficult to successfully develop in the short term, and it is necessary to continue to strengthen life prevention measures. (Finish)