Rome (AFP)

First to have imposed confinement on all its population to stem the coronavirus pandemic, Italy is far from the exit: Rome announced Friday its extension until May 3, in spite of the concern of the employers for the economy.

It is "a difficult but necessary decision for which I assume full political responsibility," said Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte during a solemn address.

At the start of a Easter weekend that they will be living behind closed doors in their homes, the 60 million Italians listened to the head of government announce to them the continuation of the measures imposed for a month: ban on rallies , drastic attacks on their freedom of movement, virtual shutdown of their economy.

For several days, Giuseppe Conte has been subject to double contradictory pressure.

Doctors and scientists are calling on him not to leave the country too early, at the risk of relaunching the pandemic when it has slowed down for ten days in the country which remains the most mourning in the world (19,000 dead), according to the reports officials.

- Schools in September? -

Conversely, the business community warns of the terrible damage that the third European economy risks.

This dilemma is particularly strong for the North, the most affected by the Covid-19, with 80% of deaths, but which is also the economic lung of Italy (45% of GDP).

If Lombardy, Emilia-Romagna, Veneto and Piedmont "do not leave in the short term, the country may permanently shut down its engine," warned this week officials of employers (Confindustria) in these regions. They demanded "a road map for an orderly and safe reopening of the economic heart of the country".

The one drawn by Giuseppe Conte on Friday may not suit them.

"I know we are all impatient to leave" and "I hope we can do it after May 3 cautiously and gradually," said the official, who did not detail this hypothetical recovery.

He did not for example mention the reopening of schools which, according to the media, would not be envisaged before September. A few rare sectors - bookstores, stationeries, businesses for newborns and logging - may resume Tuesday, however.

"We cannot afford a resumption of contagion" and "if we give up now, we risk (...) having to start from scratch," he warned.

- The battle of 'coronabonds' -

Considerable, the consequences of this prolonged shutdown are difficult to measure exactly.

The rating agency Moody's currently forecasts a 2.7% decline in Italian GDP in 2020, while the American bank Goldman Sachs expects an abysmal fall of 11.6%. Confindustria expects a decline of 6%, provided, however, that the machine does restart in May.

"The latest IMF forecasts spoke of a 7% drop in GDP in 2020, very close to that of Germany (-6.8%), the two worst figures in Europe. These two countries have a specialization very high in the industrial sector, and are therefore the most affected, "said Andrea Boitani, professor of macroeconomics at the Catholic University of the Sacred Heart in Milan, on Friday.

According to him, it is therefore necessary to "do everything possible" to avoid bankruptcies and revive the economy, even though the country already had weak growth before the crisis.

In this regard, Giuseppe Conte reiterated that the measures decided by the European Union, in particular a fund of 500 billion euros, were not up to the challenge.

"The first estimates tell us that 1,500 billion euros are needed", he said, again demanding a system of debt pooling by "coronabonds" for which Italy "will fight until end ", but which the countries of the North refuse, in particular Germany and the Netherlands.

Rome announced in mid-March an envelope of 25 billion euros to help the Italians to compensate for their loss of income and to support the economy.

It also released a total of 750 billion euros in cash for companies and public guarantees for loans taken out by companies.

© 2020 AFP