To avoid a "second wave" of contamination by the new coronavirus in China, containment must be lifted gradually, warned epidemic modeling specialists on Thursday, as activity resumed in Wuhan, epicenter of the pandemic.
Life is gradually returning to normal in this megalopolis in central China, with 11 million inhabitants, after strict containment measures to ensure social distancing.
Effective travel restrictions
While the province of Hubei, where Wuhan is located, recorded thousands of new infections every day at the peak of the disease, the latter now seems to be under control in China, where only two deaths have been recorded in the last 24 hours. Even if the pandemic, it kills more and more elsewhere, especially in Europe and the United States. The study authors, researchers at the University of Hong Kong, analyzed the number of confirmed cases in four Chinese cities (Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen and Wenzhou) between mid-January and late February using mathematical models. .
They conclude that the closure of businesses and schools and strict travel restrictions have reduced the rate of reproduction of the virus (the number of new people infected with each patient) to less than 1, allowing a gradual decrease in the number of cases. , according to their article in the British medical journal The Lancet. This is significantly less than the transmission rate at the start of the epidemic, estimated between 2 and 3, a level sufficient to allow an exponential spread of the disease.
A balance between recovery and restrictions
But according to the authors' projections, releasing the control measures prematurely would raise this rate above 1, causing the epidemic to restart, with almost as many new infections as during the first wave. "If these control measures seem to have reduced the number of infections to a very low level, without group immunity to Covid-19, new cases could easily reoccur as businesses, factories and schools reopen , increasing social interactions, especially given the growing risk of importing cases from abroad as Covid-19 continues to spread around the world, "said Joseph Wu, one of the lead authors. of the study.
The “best strategy” for affected countries, until a vaccine is available, will be to find a balance between resuming economic activities and maintaining control measures, to keep the rate of reproduction of the virus below 1, adds this renowned specialist in infectious diseases.
Mortality inequalities between regions
This reflection on how to gradually lift containment measures is currently underway in most European countries. The researchers also highlight a strong disparity in the case-fatality rates of Covid-19: less than 1% outside Hubei, but 5.91% in this most affected province, a differential which is explained by the saturation of the system of care in the region, according to their analysis.
The inequalities in mortality between the different Chinese provinces also vary according to the level of economic development, with rates ranging from 0 in the prosperous region of Jiangsu to 1.76% in a poorer region like Henan. "Even in the most prosperous megalopolises like Beijing and Shanghai, the resources of health systems are not infinite, and services are struggling to cope with a sudden increase in demand" for care, said Gabriel Leung, a co -author.
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