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08 April 2020Goldman Sachs updates its estimates for the euro area by assessing the impacts of the coronavirus on the performance of the European economy, between containment measures and production blockages. In the European Daily, it foresees a European GDP of -9% this year and + 7.8% in 2021. For Italy it indicates a -11.6% and a rebound next year to + 7.9%. for France the estimate is -7.4% (+6.4 in 2021), while for Germany it is -8.9% (+ 8.5% next year) and for spain -9.7 % (+ 8.5% in 2021).The Italian one - the analysts of the US bank say - could be the worst figure in the Eurozone which could end the year with a -9% (but which in the worst-case scenario could become a -16%). They also foresee a possible rebound in Italy by 7.9% in 2021, in short, insufficient to compensate for the damage caused by the pandemic, where other countries - such as Germany and the United Kingdom - could in practice 'compensate' for the losses suffered in 2020 .
"The uncertainty around our forecasts is very high," admits Goldman Sachs - since they depend primarily on the peak of the infection, the duration of the containment measures and the speed of the subsequent rebound.