Two prominent researchers - in an article published in the Foreign Policy magazine - believe that the Corona epidemic may stimulate the kind of cooperation required to end the civil war in Libya after years of fighting and failed foreign intervention.
Edward P. Joseph, associate professor at the Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies and Wolfgang Boztai, a former Austrian military attaché to Libya, wondered what happens when a pandemic strikes a civil war? They replied that it may be disastrous, noting that with the outbreak of fighting around Tripoli and southern Misrata, hundreds of victims have fallen, and distrust, hostility and division have reached their climax with the virus hitting the country.
The authors add that - with about 150,000 people displaced by the fighting and many of them staying in temporary collective shelters - this environment becomes ideal for spreading the infection. By the time the epidemic reaches relatively isolated young fighters on both sides, it may be too late for the vast majority of citizens who are now largely isolated in the face of the virus.
It has become clear that both sides need to stop the fighting and start cooperating - according to the article - but the broad humanitarian appeal from UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres and the request of the US special ambassador to Libya, Richard Norland, have not been heard yet.
However - as the researchers say in their article in the Foreign Policy magazine - there is still time to motivate the Libyan factions to cooperate, but only if the diplomats develop an urgent plan on the common fate of the country amid the epidemic
Common enemy
The authors believe that the virus can bring peace to Libya that years of international diplomacy have failed to achieve.
The main reason for the continued fighting - according to the article - is that each party believes that it is on the cusp of victory, and is convinced that its opponent will take advantage of any interruption to renew its supply of weapons, ammunition and fighters.
The article stressed the importance of the need for a more realistic approach and that it is happily available, which is that - in a country divided into two governments and two central banks and separate and deteriorating health systems - there is at least a common acceptance of the National Center for Disease Control in Tripoli. This peaceful entity can and should become the focal point for cooperation in the fight against the Coronavirus between the west and east of the country, and a link to the international community to deliver its messages and support.
The fact that the National Center for Disease Control is located in Tripoli should allay any concerns among diplomats about breaching the agreement to recognize the besieged National Accord government, without antagonizing the forces of retired Major General Khalifa Hifter at the same time, as the article sees.
After listing more details of the success of this approach, the researchers believe that, in a reasonable way, away from sharp condemnations or exaggerated demands, war-torn Libya can see an overnight improvement in its defenses against the epidemic, and that once cooperation begins, the prospects for a ceasefire Serious fire will improve significantly.
The researchers concluded their article that with some luck and good intentions, the need to fight a common viral enemy may stop a protracted internal conflict.