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April 08, 2020

World trade may decline between 13% and 32% in 2020 due to the coronavirus pandemic. The World Trade Organization (WTO) estimates it, which expects a recovery in 2021, which will however depend on the duration of the spread of the virus and the effectiveness of emergency response policies. For WTO, virtually all areas of the world will suffer a double-digit decline in trade volumes in 2020, with exports from North America and Asia being hit hardest. WTO recalls that world trade was already down 0.1% before the explosion of the coronavirus emergency, after rising 2.9% in 2019.

The WTO has hypothesized two scenarios for 2020
At best, with a faster recovery after the emergency and a shorter duration of measures restricting travel and production, the drop in international trade will be 12.9% compared to the previous year and in 2021 it will experience a rebound of 21 , 3%. In the second scenario, the worst one, a decrease of 31.9% is expected in 2020 and a recovery of 24% in 2021.

In the first scenario, the WTO estimates for North America a drop in exports for 2020 of 17.1% (+ 23.7% in 2021), for Central and South America a drop of 12.9% (+ 18.6%), 12.2% for Europe (+ 20.5%) and 13.5% for Asia (+ 24.9%), with the other Regions - Africa and the Middle East - which will record a drop in exports of 8% (+ 8.6%).

In this first scenario, however, imports will see a 14.5% reduction in North America (+ 27.3% in 2021), 22.2% in Central and South America (+ 23.2%), in Europe by 10.3% (+ 19.9%), in Asia by 11.8% (+ 23.1%) and in the other regions by 10% (+ 13.6%).

In the second scenario, the worst one, exports in 2020 will drop by 40.9% for North America (+ 19.3% in 2021), by 31.3% in Central and South America (+ 14.3%), 32.8% in Europe (+ 22.7%), 36.2% in Asia (+ 36.1%), 8% in the Other Regions (+ 9.3%). Again in this second scenario, imports for the current year will decrease by 33.8% in North America (+ 29.5% in 2021), by 43.8% in Central and South America (+ 19.5% ), 28.9% in Europe (+ 24.5%), 31.5% in Asia (+ 25.1%), 22.6% in the Other Regions + 18%).

"Hard consequences for families and businesses"
"The crisis is first and foremost a health crisis that has forced governments to introduce unprecedented measures to protect people's lives", commented the director of the WTO, Roberto Azevedo. "The inevitable drop in trade and production will have severe consequences for families and businesses, in addition to the human suffering caused by the disease itself," continues Azevedo, stressing that "the primary objective is to put the pandemic under control and mitigate the damage to people, companies and countries. Authorities must start planning the post-pandemic. " The director general of the WTO defined the data provided today "ugly, it is useless to turn around, but a rapid and vigorous recovery is possible", explaining that "the decisions taken today determine the future shape of recovery and global growth prospects", indicating trade as one of the variables to allow such recovery and inviting to "keep markets open". Azevedo concluded by launching an appeal to the countries for a unified response, because "if we work together, we will see a faster recovery than is possible if each country acts alone".