Paris (AFP)
A breath of fresh air: even if the number of coronavirus deaths continues to climb in Europe, confinement begins to bear fruit by reducing hospital tension, but it is important not to lower your guard if you want to reduce the plague, warn experts.
The timid hopes that have appeared in recent days with a drop in the number of Covid-19 deaths in Italy, France and Spain were showered on Monday, the balance sheets all starting to rise again.
Another indicator nevertheless gives an encouraging signal: the number of cases hospitalized in intensive care, which is marking time in these three European countries most severely affected, makes the prospect of finally reaching the peak of the epidemic more credible.
"Although slowly, a certain drop in pressure is starting to be observed in hospitals and intensive care units," notes Dr Maria José Sierra of the Spanish Health Alert Center.
In Italy, the number of patients in intensive care also continued its decline on Tuesday, for the fourth consecutive day, with 106 fewer patients in 24 hours.
The same dynamic in France, where the net increase in the number of intensive care patients continues to slow, with a balance of +59 on Tuesday, against more than 500 last week. "This is the most important criterion, because it is the one that puts stress on our hospitals," said Olivier Véran, the Minister of Health.
In the Rhône department, for example, "the increase in the number of confirmed cases seems to be slowing down," notes Philippe Vanhems, epidemiologist and hospital practitioner at the Edouard Herriot hospital in Lyon.
- "Micro-signs" -
"These are encouraging micro-signs that let us think that we are decelerating the epidemic curve," explains Professor Vanhems to AFP.
"Confinement, associated with the two other fundamental measures which are social distancing and barrier gestures, seems to have an effect on the growth of the epidemic in the three countries", analyzes Arnaud Banos, researcher at CNRS, specialist in modeling.
"This reduces the percentage of people who become infected, it takes time to perceive the effects," says Catherine Hill, retired epidemiologist, who examines the curves of the pandemic every day around the world.
But "people still continue to get infected", since the SARS CoV-2 virus is still circulating, she warns. Hence the absolute need to maintain strict containment, experts insist. "It is precisely because we have the first signs that show that containment is starting to act that it must be continued," pleads Jean-François Delfraissy, president of the French Scientific Council.
In the general population, there is indeed "a proportion, not yet estimated with precision, of undetectable infected people. Indeed, these are very little symptomatic or asymptomatic but are likely to infect others and generate , potentially, serious cases ", details Professor Vanhems.
- Reach a plateau -
This big unknown makes forecasting difficult. The "optimistic" scenario would be to stabilize the curve in order to arrive at a "plateau", a term often preferred to that of "peak", which supposes a rapid decrease, unlikely.
"The objective is to make this plateau last over time, because confinement makes it possible to play the watch," explains Arnaud Banos. And if the measures continue to be respected, this plateau could finally tend to drop, in the end, "winning the match".
But in the event of hasty deconfinement, the risk is to have a second stage, and a curve which starts again to increase. "The models show us that once you have reached the plateau and that you release the pressure, you have a rebound of the epidemic because you release in the nature of the people hitherto protected, and who will find themselves in contact with the virus, "warns the specialist.
And the fear is that too much optimism will loosen up. The Italian government's extraordinary commissioner for coronavirus, Domenico Arcuri, warned against "optical illusions" because "we are far from the exit".
"Talking too early about deconfinement, associated with the weather, that people are tired of being at home, and without ignoring possible economic pressures, can create a risky situation", fears Professor Vanhems, who calls to "major vigilance over all epidemiological indicators (entry into intensive care, number of people infected, death, calls to the Samu, etc.)".
In Wuhan, China, the cradle of the pandemic, the authorities lifted the drastic closure imposed two and a half months ago on Wednesday. The day before, for the first time since the onset of the disease, the country announced no deaths from Covid-19.
© 2020 AFP