INTERVIEW
"With a much wider error interval than that of France, you will opt to downplay things as much as possible," analyzes Carine Milcent, economist, CNRS researcher and specialist in the Chinese health system. Home of the coronavirus pandemic, China has officially recorded more than 3,000 deaths and 80,000 cases on its territory for a total population of more than 1.4 billion, the smallest ratio of large countries. Today, doubts about the reality of these figures persist.
"It is obvious that they have lowered the figures"
Bloomberg news agency said on Wednesday a confidential report in which US intelligence sources believed that the number of deaths and cases of contamination reported by Beijing had been intentionally minimized. "It is obvious that they have lowered the figures," says Carine Milcent. At the microphone of Europe 1, this one specifies however that the weak balance sheet of China with regard to its total population is explained above all by the social disparities within the country, and the heterogeneity of its offer of care within of the same province.
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"It is not the total figure that should tell us things, but rather its deviation from the figures for Hubei province," said the researcher. Within a single province, in fact, the supply of care is very heterogeneous and is not identical between rural and urban areas. In addition, the level of qualification of nursing staff differs depending on where you are, says Carine Milcent. "The level of diploma requested is not the same depending on whether one practices in a small health center, or in a hospital where the level of training here will be comparable to that of our teaching hospitals".
Patients who have escaped censuses
For the economist, the figures recorded by China can also be explained by the health coverage of the Chinese, much less advantageous than that of the French. "In France we have a form of free healthcare where the rest of the costs remain low," she says. "In China there is public insurance, but you still have a very large burden to pay; in the case of this epidemic, there is no treatment for this virus and you therefore end up with a balance dependent. "
Also, following the very strict containment measures implemented in several Chinese provinces, mainly that of Hubei, many Chinese saw their economic activity suddenly stop. "So people preferred to stay at home, and not go to the hospital while knowing they were sick," explains Carine Milcent, referring to people who had "statistically escaped the figures given", these representing the cases identified in hospital structures.
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A "much wider" "range" of error
"When the health system is efficient, you will have a clearer vision of the critical situation in your country," argues the researcher. "But when it does not have the performance of a health system like that of Europe, Taiwan or Singapore, the error interval on the people potentially deceased from this epidemic will be much wider" . This interval is all the greater since the allocation of the death can be attributed to one of the pathologies brought upstream by the victim, rather than to Covid-19.
Furthermore, argues the economist, "in France, we are able to have very precise information on what is happening within hospitals; in China, we do not have this exhaustiveness in the collection of the information, which creates variance and differences in what we can observe. "
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"The fruit of the Chinese political regime"
"It is possible that the figures displayed, had they been higher, would have led us to adapt the speed with which we managed the crisis", elsewhere in the world, concedes Carine Milcent. "But we must not lose sight of the fact that China is a country of 1.4 billion inhabitants," she added, referring to the measures put in place for containment. A very severe confinement imposed on a population which is characterized by very significant social disparities.
"Some decisions are also political," concludes the economist. "These are figures which are also the fruit of the Chinese political regime, and the result of this authoritarian state."