Multi-agency downgrades global car sales by 2020 by nearly 30%, Chinese market is picking up

China-Singapore Jingwei Client, April 4th (Fu Yumei) The continued spread of the epidemic has caused car factories around the world to press the pause button one after another.

On April 2nd, the Roland Berger automotive team released a judgment on the trend of the Chinese and global auto markets in 2020 and 2021. Roland Berger believes that based on a comprehensive study of the supply, demand and policy sides of the Chinese automobile industry in different scenarios, the "U-shaped delayed rebound" scenario is most likely to occur, leading to a decline in domestic car sales of about 10% in 2020, and 2021 It is expected to usher in a sales rebound of 10% -12%.

Roland Berger's Global Senior Partner Zheng Zheng said: "From a global perspective, the possibility of 'U-shaped' and 'L-shaped' scenarios coexist. Europe and the United States are the worst-hit areas of the current epidemic. The downward pressure on the industry is even more pronounced. For upstream and downstream players in the automotive industry chain, they should look positively and actively respond to the epidemic, take this opportunity to improve the layout of the industrial chain, accelerate the pace of transformation, and build their own hard power that can withstand systemic risks. "

China and Singapore Jingwei reporters noticed that many international authoritative organizations have recently lowered their forecasts for global and Chinese car sales.

Photographs of new warp and weft

Multi-agency downgrades global sales figures

On March 31, McKinsey, a global management consulting firm, predicts that global car sales will decline by 29% due to the epidemic in 2020, and that sales in the Chinese market will decline by 15%, which cannot be recovered in the short term.

McKinsey had expected global car sales to fall by 17% to 76 million units in 2020, and is now down to 29%; of which Chinese car sales will be reduced by 15%, US and European sales will be reduced by 18% -36%, and production will be reduced by nearly 500 Ten thousand cars.

Credit rating agency Moody's Investors Service also recently sharply lowered its outlook for global car sales in 2020.

Moody's said that global car sales are currently expected to fall by 14% in 2020, which is much higher than the 2.5% decline previously estimated in February.

The agency also predicts that Western European car sales will see the biggest decline in demand, with a 21% drop this year, much higher than the 4% drop previously forecast.

The forecast data of the automobile market research institute HIS Markit also shows that the epidemic will cause a loss of 2 million new car production in the first quarter, which will account for about 40% of the world's total production in the first quarter. In addition, the global automotive shipments will decline by more than 12% year-on-year in 2020, and the year-on-year decline in China's auto market will reach 10%.

Data show that global car sales in 2019 reached 90.3 million units, a decrease of 4 million units compared to 2018. According to the above forecast situation, even with the lowest decline, global car sales will decrease by at least tens of millions in 2020. In addition, in the above forecast data, the decline in the Chinese market is lower than the decline in the global market.

Global factories continue to shut down, Chinese market picks up

Currently, the global auto industry is facing a crisis of "paralysis" due to the disruption of the supply chain caused by the shutdown of factories. In fact, the automotive industry chain is long and interlinked, and there are tens of thousands of components between the docking chain between the vehicle manufacturer and the component supplier. At the same time, global collaboration has long been the norm in the automotive industry, so it's often "moving all over."

It is understood that most of the auto factories in North America, some European countries, and Japan, South Korea, the Philippines, and Thailand are currently shut down. The major brands were almost spared. Volkswagen, Daimler, BMW, PSA, Renault, Volvo, FCA, Ford, GM, Tesla, Hyundai, and the Japanese giants have all announced the closure of their factories. Exact return time.

In addition to the large-scale shutdown of automobile factories, parts suppliers such as Bosch and China are also deeply affected. On March 20, Bosch and Continental, the world ’s largest and second largest auto parts suppliers, announced that they would stop production in Europe. Earlier, Magna and Michelin had announced the suspension of some European plants.

The impact of the factory's "closed tide" is still expanding. On April 3, according to the Kyodo News Agency, the suspension of Toyota Motor Corps spread from North America and Europe to Japan. Starting on the 3rd, Toyota stopped production of a total of seven production lines in five Japanese factories, including Aichi and Fukuoka. The planned shutdown is as long as April 15.

On April 1, according to surging news, citing The Verge report, a staff member of Tesla's New York plant was diagnosed with new crown pneumonia, and the plant downtime continued to prolong.

Recently, Volkswagen CEO Herbert Deis said in an interview with German ZDF TV station that the new coronavirus epidemic caused a large number of shutdowns. Volkswagen's weekly loss was about 2 billion euros. Currently only the Chinese market can continue to maintain revenue.

On March 31, Volkswagen China CEO Feng Sihan stated that 22 of Volkswagen's plants in China had resumed production, and only SAIC-Volkswagen Changsha and Urumqi factories were still closed.

According to the current situation, including the Hubei region, China's auto industry is gradually recovering. Cui Dongshu, secretary general of the National Passenger Car Market Information Joint Committee, told reporters from China and Singapore: "The epidemic first broke out in the Chinese market in a large area, so the Chinese automobile industry entered the period of deep impact of the epidemic as early as February, and sales in February were negative It has reached 80%. With the gradual stabilization of the epidemic, the Chinese auto market is also recovering, while the world auto market is being gradually affected by the impact of the epidemic. "

On April 2, Liu Changyu, the second inspector of the Foreign Trade Department of the Ministry of Commerce, stated at a press conference that China is a major automobile manufacturing country and an important global base for the production of auto parts and raw materials. A large number of cars and parts are imported every year. Export trade. The spread of overseas epidemics will inevitably have an impact on China's auto trade and supply chain operations. "We are willing to work with other countries to actively fight the epidemic, strengthen international cooperation, and fully maintain the stability of the global automotive industry chain and supply chain, to minimize the adverse impact of the epidemic on the entire industry."

According to customs statistics, the transaction value of auto parts in China last year was 36.711 billion US dollars. Among them, the total transactions in Germany, Japan, South Korea, and the United States reached 24.645 billion US dollars, with a share of 67.1%. Therefore, although the Chinese market is picking up, many analysts have pointed out that if the global auto supply chain companies stop production and supply for a prolonged period of time, it will directly threaten the production of domestic car companies, and the Chinese auto industry must avoid a "second shock."

Roland Berger still pointed out that in the context of the gradual improvement of the domestic epidemic, players in the automotive industry chain should actively and orderly resume work, reorganize their annual goals, improve the resilience of the supply chain, and take this opportunity to open the road to transformation. (Zhongxin Jingwei APP)

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