"Double Presidents" intensify split, "Peace Agreement" threatens Pompeo's surprise visit to Afghanistan

On March 23, US Secretary of State Pompeo secretly visited the Afghan capital Kabul and held talks with Afghan President Ghani and former Afghan CEO Abdullah. Peace talks between the Afghan government and the Taliban are deadlocked. Ghani and Abdullah have been sworn in as presidents of Afghanistan, exacerbating turmoil in Afghanistan. Pompeo's visit was mainly to pressure the two sides of the Afghan government to promote the implementation of the peace agreement, but the results were not satisfactory.

Increasing differences

Afghan presidential palace issued a statement on March 23 that during the talks held in the presidential palace, Pompeo and Ghani discussed the Afghan peace process, Afghanistan's security and political situation.

According to the Washington Post, Pompeo said in a statement issued by the State Department that day after the surprise visit to Afghanistan, the United States "deeply regrets" that Ghani and Abdullah failed to form an inclusive government. . He blamed the situation of the "two presidents" of Afghanistan, which disrupted US-Arab relations and posed a direct threat to US interests.

In addition, Pompeo said that the United States has therefore decided to reduce its aid to Afghanistan by 1 billion U.S. dollars this year, and plans to reduce its aid to 20 billion U.S. dollars in 2021.

According to Reuters, Ghani said in a speech on the Afghan National Radio and Television that cuts in aid would not affect key areas. In addition, he accused Abdullah of trying to amend the constitution.

It is reported that after the talks ended, Pompeo flew to Doha to hold talks with Taliban negotiator Barada. The Taliban said in a statement that the two sides agreed that the strict implementation of the U.S.-Taliban peace agreement will help advance the peace negotiation process in Afghanistan and establish an Islamic government that meets the requirements of the agreement in the future.

"Emergency Rescue Diplomacy"

The United States "Wall Street Journal" said that despite the new crown pneumonia epidemic raging around the world, Pompeo still insisted on "emergency rescue diplomacy."

"This is because there have been problems with the implementation of the peace agreement signed by the United States, the Taliban and Afghanistan in Doha. The United States believes that the main responsibility lies with the Afghan government, and Pompeo's surprise visit to Afghanistan is to coordinate the parties and put pressure on the Afghan government. "Yuan Zheng, director of the American Diplomacy Research Office of the American Institute of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, pointed out in an interview with this newspaper.

On March 9, Ghani and Abdullah respectively held "presidential inauguration ceremonies" at the presidential office and the chief executive office, and a "double president" situation emerged in Afghanistan. This situation has further intensified the division of the Afghan political elite group, and has also led to the inability to start the internal reconciliation process in Afghanistan, which was scheduled to start on the 10th. The Gali bill for releasing Taliban detainees has not entered into force as scheduled.

Analysis believes that at the moment of chaos in the Afghan government's internal divisions and deadlock in peace talks with the Taliban, Pompeo's visit is undoubtedly to "save" the peace agreement reached between the United States and the Taliban. However, the United States, which only wants to rush away from Afghanistan, is likely to be unable to clean up the chaos in Afghanistan.

Farahart, a senior researcher at the Center for Pyramid Politics and Strategy of Egypt, said that the US election is imminent, and the Trump administration, which is not resistant to the epidemic, is facing a sluggish domestic economic situation and hopes to make a difference in diplomacy. The peace agreement that was reached with the Taliban is considered an important achievement, and the US government does not want to lose it easily.

Long road to peace

Abdullah spokesman Omid Messam previously stated that they want a peaceful end to the crisis, but this will require more meetings to discuss solutions.

"Ghani and Abdullah both rely heavily on the United States, so both sides will inevitably compromise with the United States." Yuan Zheng analyzed, "Without the US military presence and US assistance, the Afghan government cannot compete with the Taliban."

According to CNN, Zalmai Khalilzad, the United States Special Representative for Afghan Reconciliation, said that a day before Pompeo's surprise visit, the Taliban and the Afghan government held their first remote talks on the release of prisoners. In addition, Pompeo said that despite the ongoing fighting, the Taliban has basically fulfilled its commitment to reduce violence and is working to form a peace negotiation team. In addition, if Ghani and Abdullah reach an agreement, the United States may cancel aid cuts.

"The key to solving the Afghan problem lies in the distribution of power between governments, including the distribution of power between Ghani and Abdullah, the Taliban and the Afghan government." Yuan Zheng analyzed, "the prospects for peace are predictable, but peace There is still a long way to go. "

Zhao Hao

Zhao Hao