The mandate of the Iraqi President, Barham Salih, on March 17, the former governor of Najaf, the representative of the “Victory” coalition in Parliament, Adnan al-Zarfi, to form a new government, came a few days after the escalation of the military escalation between the Iraqi “Hezbollah” militia and the American forces in Iraq, where the two sides exchanged attacks, launched by the party with an attack on the Taji camp in Baghdad, in which American forces are present, on March 11th, killing two American and British soldiers, and American forces responded, on the 13th of the same month, by bombing five sites The party in Iraq, and on the common border with Syria, while the party renewed His attack again a day later, injuring some members of the Iraqi Air Force.
Local observers believe that American forces may resume their attacks on the Iraqi militia camps and armories, which Washington lists as a terrorist organization, especially after the latter warned, on March 16, that it would not compromise in protecting its soldiers, in parallel with the firing of two missiles at Bismaya Camp southeast of Baghdad.
But what is striking in this context is that these warnings come at a time when media reports indicated, on March 17, that the US military was ready to withdraw from three main bases in Iraq, including the Al-Qaim base.
This escalation may be one of the most important challenges that will face the new candidate to form the government, Adnan Al-Zorfi, a task that does not seem to be easy in light of the existing differences, and the interests of the powers concerned are intertwined with what is happening on the Iraqi arena.
Different positions
The current wave of escalation is the fiercest in the confrontations between the two parties since the militia began its attacks against the American presence in Iraq last December 27, when it targeted a military base near Kirkuk in which a contractor working for the American army was killed, in exchange for which the United States escalated by bombing more than one militia site with unmanned aircraft A pilot, and the escalation continued until the first carried out a military strike that led to the killing of the commander of the "Jerusalem Corps" in the Revolutionary Guard, Qassem Soleimani, and the deputy commander of the "Popular Mobilization" Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, on January 3.
On the political level, the reactions in Iraq also reflected an unprecedented level of anxiety, especially since these confrontations come in light of a state of political liquidity in the country due to the failure of government formation, despite the fact that President Barham Saleh, on the 17th of this month, assigned the former governor of Najaf Adnan Al-Zarfi formed, which made most of the political forces call for calm and responsibility, in light of the current political circumstances.
The most prominent position among all of them was the position of the Sadrist movement, known for its toughness towards the American presence in Iraq, which its leader Muqtada al-Sadr called, contrary to what was expected, to "avoid escalation and spread peace in the country", and pointed out that "taking into account the surrounding circumstances is pushing to demand peace." With the occupier. ”
On the military level, there seemed to be a reservation from the beginning on the behavior of the militia, according to local estimates that indicated that the Iraqi armed forces consider that these strikes constitute a challenge to them at the level of repercussions, in addition to the deep crisis represented in the inability to command and control factions « Popular Mobilization », as these attacks confirm the difficulty of integrating these factions into an institutional framework. However, after the militia's rockets reached the Iraqi forces part of the Taji camp, the statement of the armed forces reflected a strong tone towards it.
Continuous entanglement
Some perceive that there are unspoken motives for escalation at the political and security levels. On the political level, there are American signs hovering over the influence of Iran in the process of choosing the Iraqi prime minister. In return, Tehran accuses Washington of being behind the protests against the composition of the Iraqi political system based on quotas.
On the military front, these developments are inseparable from the US announcement of the deployment of Patriot defense systems in Iraq, which Iran strongly opposes. With the deployment of these systems approaching renewed escalation, and local observers say that the state may not be fully aware of the details of the deployment of these systems, in light of the current political situation.
Consequently, it can be said that there is a major problem related to the rules of the American military action in Iraq, which were not previously disputed by any party, including Iran, but the developments of the American military situation after reducing the presence in Syria, and then strengthening the American military structure in a way It poses a challenge to the Iranian movement in Iraq and Syria, which is the main problem behind changing the traditional, rules of engagement.
Several connotations
The latest military escalation offers a set of implications, which are:
1- The timing factor
The process of resuming attacks by Hezbollah militia came a week after the visit of the Secretary of the Supreme Council for Iranian National Security, Ali Shamkhani, during which he praised the role of the "resistance forces" for the American presence in Iraq, which is the first visit of a senior Iranian official in the next two months after the killing of Soleimani, who was at the head of a large military and intelligence delegation, according to Iraqi media reports, and that, according to the agenda of the visit, he met the highest security and intelligence officials and the head of the “Popular Mobilization” committee, Faleh al-Fayyad, while the reports did not indicate, for example, that he had met Abdulaziz Al-Muhammadawi (Abu Fadak ), Who was chosen as Chief of Staff of the “Popular Mobilization” last month to succeed the engineer, and this meeting was certainly held away from the media, in a way that had repercussions for what happened on the scene later.
2- The absence of coordination mechanisms
The repeated indication by the political leaders in Iraq, especially the three presidencies, that they do not want to turn Iraq into an arena to settle the differences between Washington and Tehran, give more importance to the view that calls for activating the role of the Iraqi government, as a coordinator between the two parties in Iraq, given that the presence A strong government is an important mechanism through which opportunities for friction are reduced, as the absence of that mechanism puts the parties on the path of direct confrontation constantly.
3- The nature of the attacks
In the first attack - Wednesday, March 11th - a US military statement stated that 18 "Katyusha" missiles were fired, while 18 other shells, which were in surrounding locations and ready for launch, were defused. In the second attack - noon on Saturday 14 of the same month - 33 missile missiles of the same type were fired, and therefore there is a doubling of the number, which indicates that the security forces were unable to completely survey the sites where the launch platforms were deployed, and they may not have basically the information Sufficient sites in these locations, in a way that clearly indicates the features and dimensions of the relationship between the "crowd" and the army, and sheds light on the role played by "Hezbollah", which is now seen as the leader of the "crowd" currently.
4- Frequency of coronary targeting
Al-Taji's base does not have a different symbolism from sites previously targeted by the “Hashd” militias, but it is believed that the results of the strikes reveal the goal behind this, as it reflects the ability of Hezbollah to hit those targets accurately, which some observers attributed to His success in recruiting elements inside the base enabled him to determine the coordinates in a way that targeted the American part of the base during the first strike.
As for the second blow, there are two possibilities. Either the limited deviation in the target hit came as a result of the joint (Iraqi-American) camp in this part of the base almost adjacent to the headquarters of the Iraqi Air Defense Force and thus hit it, or that Hezbollah wanted to It is actually targeting the Iraqi forces without confirming that it aims to do so, in a message to the Iraqi army to stop the joint training operations with the American side until that pretext that the American forces are present with the aim of training the Iraqi forces there is ended.
The next scenario
The scenarios may be multiple in the current situation, but it is inconceivable that a militia could wage a military confrontation in the military sense with the American forces in Iraq. However, attrition fights on both sides cannot be ruled out, according to the interim rules of engagement, as US forces may direct new strikes to Hezbollah militia, similar to the focused strikes targeting weapons depots in the Jurf al-Sakhr region of Babylon.
Iranian attempt
It can be said that there is an attempt by Iran, and the militias loyal to it, to raise the cost of the assassination of Soleimani and the engineer. Nevertheless, the most important strategic motive for the recent escalation is the direction of the United States towards strengthening its military capabilities in Iraq, in anticipation of the continued political and military transformations taking place in the Iraqi arena during the current period.
There may be multiple scenarios in the current situation, but it is inconceivable that a militia can wage a military confrontation, in the military sense, with US forces in Iraq.
The repeated indication by the political leaders in Iraq, especially the three presidencies, that they do not want Iraq to turn into a platform for settling the differences between Washington and Tehran, gives more importance to the view that calls for activating the role of the Iraqi government.
33
A missile was fired at the Al-Taji base, in the latest attack.