"We are not ready for the next epidemic": it is with these words which today seem prophetic that Bill Gates began in 2015 a conference on the lessons to be learned from Ebola. The founder of Microsoft, now involved in humanitarian work with the Bill & Melinda Gates foundation, spoke during a "Ted Talk", a short conference broadcast on Youtube and disturbing to say the least. For eight minutes, Bill Gates seems to predict the appearance of the Covid-19 coronavirus. So much so that the video has seen a revival of interest in recent days, via sharing on social networks.
"The next epidemic could be much more dramatic"
" When I was a kid, the most feared disaster was a nuclear war. But today, the greatest risk of global disaster doesn't look like that. It looks like that," said Bill Gates, pointing to a virus seen under a microscope. "If something kills more than 10 million people in the next few decades, it will likely be a highly contagious virus rather than a war. We have invested heavily in nuclear deterrence, but very little in a system to stop epidemics. We we are not ready for the next epidemic, "he warns.
Speaking while the Ebola epidemic was about to be eradicated in West Africa, not without having killed thousands of people before, Bill Gates then relied on the news: "Watch Ebola : The problem was not that the system did not work well enough. It was that there was no system at all. " "The next epidemic could be much more dramatic. There could be a virus with which infected people would feel well enough to fly, go to the market ...", he announced. Words that strongly recall the symptoms and behavior of people infected with Covid-19.
Willingly alarmist, Bill Gates still nuanced his words at the end, ensuring that the solutions were at hand. "We have laptops to receive and disseminate information to the public. We have satellite maps where we can see people and where they are going. We have advances in biology that could change the way we see a pathogen and allow us to make the right medicines and vaccines. We have the tools, but these tools must be used by a global health system, "he argued, adding that cooperation between health workers and the military was also crucial.
Call for containment
A fervent activist with his wife Melinda on the development of health systems in poor countries, Bill Gates reiterated this speech in 2017 at a conference on security in Munich. Logically, he therefore spoke on Wednesday about the Covid-19 epidemic, during a question-and-answer session with Internet users on the Reddit site. "We must remain calm, even if we are in an exceptional situation," he said.
The billionaire philanthropist also called on people to confine themselves as seriously as possible. "The only known effective model is that of a rigorous social distancing. If you don't do that, then the virus will affect a large part of the population and hospitals will find themselves in a state of saturation due to the influx of sick people. ", hammered Bill Gates. "China is seeing the number of cases decrease now because the implementation of tests and containment has been very effective." If a country succeeds in implementing tests and enforcing containment, then between 6 to 10 weeks , he should see the number of cases decrease and begin to be able to envisage a return to normal, "he said.
ANALYSIS >> What if, to defeat the coronavirus, you had to stay confined for several months?
Bill Gates is not the only one to have anticipated and alerted to the risk of a sudden pandemic. In 2009, in a projection report on "the world in 2025", the CIA had already considered the scenario of a highly contagious respiratory virus, which could appear in particular in China, through animals.