(Fighting New Coronary Pneumonia) Experts explain "poison": there are three possible destinies that have not yet been reorganized

China News Service, Beijing, March 13th (Reporter Sun Zifa) As the epidemic develops and changes, what will happen to the fate of the new coronavirus? Will the virus undergo mutation and recombination during transmission? Will the epidemic disappear in the summer? In the face of a global pandemic, how can China share its experience with the world and push the world to fight "epidemic" together?

Prof. Shu Yuelong, chairman of the Medical Virology Branch of the Chinese Medical Association and dean of the School of Public Health of Sun Yat-sen University (Shenzhen), analyzed in an online interview organized by the Chinese Association of Science and Technology that the new crown virus is unlikely to disappear naturally in summer, and its fate has three possibilities. At present, the overall mutation degree is relatively low, and no recombination has occurred. At the same time, China must share its experience with the world and help the global fight against the epidemic.

The fate of the virus has three possibilities

Before taking up his current post in April 2017, Shu Yuelong served as the director of the National Influenza Center for 13 consecutive years, during which he also served as the director of the WHO Global Influenza Reference and Research Cooperation Center for nearly 7 years.

Regarding whether the highly concerned new crown virus will disappear in the summer, he said that the main reason that the virus will disappear in the summer is based on the understanding of the surface phenomenon of the 2003 SARS epidemic, because SARS was the WHO ’s declaration of the epidemic in July of that year. The SARS virus did not reappear.

"But we should not forget that when the SARS epidemic occurred, the world, especially China, also adopted strong prevention and control measures, including the rapid detection of cases for isolation, and the tracking of closely-closed people in each case for isolation and medical observation. Control measures to successfully prevent and control the epidemic. "

Rising temperatures may have an impact on the survival of the virus under natural conditions. For example, in summer in temperate regions, very low influenza activity is proof. Therefore, it is speculated that the rise in summer temperature may reduce the epidemic intensity of the epidemic, but it is unlikely to disappear naturally.

Shu Yuelong believes that there are several possibilities for the fate of the new crown virus: First, the virus is only epidemic in the population, but its virulence is weakened, causing only common cold symptoms in the crowd, similar to the prevalent coronaviruses such as 229E and OC43 in the crowd.

Second, the comeback this winter, the pathogenicity and transmission have not changed significantly, but with the increase of the population's immune level, the epidemic gradually weakened, and the threat to human health is getting smaller and smaller. He also looks forward to the successful development of the vaccine before the coming of this winter, reducing the spread of the disease and even controlling its epidemic through vaccination.

Another is that the virus is not only epidemic in humans, but also can be transmitted to other animals across species. Because of the distribution of ACE2 receptors in species, many animals can express ACE2 receptors, including non-human primates, snow Minks, pigs, cats, etc. do not rule out the possibility of the virus spreading to other animals, thus evolving into a new zoonotic disease that may exist in nature for a long time. Therefore, surveillance of new crown virus in animals should be strengthened.

Low overall mutation of the virus without recombination

Shu Yuelong pointed out that viral mutations are their natural characteristics, especially RNA viruses. Because there is no correction mechanism for their replication process, mutations are more common, and coronaviruses are no exception as an RNA virus.

Since the discovery of the new coronavirus in January, the genome sequences of 345 strains of viruses have been shared by 113 units in 30 countries on the International Gene Sequence Sharing Data Platform (GISAID). Analysis by multiple research teams on the mutation of the virus shows that In the virus genome of about 30,000 bases, the overall mutation degree is currently low, and no recombination has occurred.

As for a scientific research team who published a paper that found two subtypes of L-type and S-type, Shu Yuelong said that it is only based on the current viral genome sequence, and it is difficult to draw conclusions when the current virus traceability is not very clear. It is worth noting that neither the L-type nor the S-type was generated during the transmission of the crowd, but existed when the epidemic occurred, which has been confirmed by another research team's research paper.

He emphasized that viral mutations are in line with normal epidemiological rules and should not cause panic. Different research teams based on the analysis of shared viral gene sequences will help people understand the virus and provide more scientific evidence for epidemic prevention and control.

"Scientists, as professionals, must be comprehensive in interpreting scientific research results, especially in the comprehensive evaluation of clinical, epidemiological and etiological data, and truly have a piece of evidence to say a word. On the other hand, everyone in this This is the age of the media. How to stick to the bottom line, not blindly interpret scientific conclusions, and not disseminate irresponsible content is also the moral bottom line that everyone should abide by. "Shu Yuelong reminded.

Help the global fight against the epidemic reflect the role of the great powers

On the evening of March 11, local time, WHO Director-General Tan Desai announced in Geneva that the new crown pneumonia epidemic has constituted a global pandemic.

Prior to this, Shu Yuelong judged that a global pandemic was difficult to avoid, and called for a global pandemic response to do a good job of prevention and control in order to help all countries prepare.

He said that based on the results and accumulated experience in the prevention and control of the epidemic, China actively shared with the world and helped the global fight against the epidemic. "This not only reflects the role of major countries, but also further reduces the risk of importing epidemics into China."

How should China promote the global epidemic? Shu Yuelong specifically suggested that, first, through various forms of online conferences, train medical and other related technical personnel in developing countries, especially countries along the “Belt and Road”, and provide assistance within their capabilities.

The second is to send medical and other related technical teams to support countries with severe epidemics.

The third is to establish scientific research cooperation teams with major countries in the world such as the United States and Europe, as well as relevant organizations such as the WHO and the Gates Foundation, and jointly conduct research on vaccine and drug research and development.

Shu Yuelong pointed out that China's domestic epidemic prevention and control has achieved significant results, but with the global pandemic, the risk of epidemic import into China is increasing. Therefore, how to prevent and control overseas import has become the key to China's future epidemic prevention and control. In this regard, we must not only strengthen the health inspection of immigrants, but also draw on domestic strategies for accurate prevention and control, and carry out real-time risk assessment of foreign regions. At the same time, for each entry case found, epidemic prevention and control should be implemented in accordance with the same domestic strategies, including tracking close contacts and conducting medical observations on close contacts. (Finish)