The process of extending the Strategic Offensive Arms Reduction Treaty (START III) should not take much time, since only an exchange of diplomatic notes is required. This was announced during a briefing by a senior representative of the United States Department of State.
“From the position of the United States, we proceed from the fact that the provision on the extension of the contract is legally enshrined in the text of the treaty, which has already been considered, agreed and ratified. So, in our opinion, (for extension. - RT ), only an exchange of diplomatic notes will be required, ”his words are quoted in a decoding published on the website of the State Department.
It is also noted that the validity period of START III is coming to an end, “but there is no particular urgency” in its extension.
“We do not proceed from any deadlines, although the deadline, of course, is the end of this process. I just mean that there is absolutely no need for a decision to extend the contract this week, or this month. The timeliness of its execution does not depend on this, ”said the representative of the American Foreign Ministry.
In addition, the State Department touched upon the conclusion of a new agreement, in which, in the opinion of the American side, the list of systems covered by the document should be expanded. According to the ministry, the American side “needs to do this” so that the arms control regime also covers “a range of newly developed Russian complexes that are not and will not be related to START III.”
“Some of them are some exotic new weapons systems, such as the Poseidon nuclear-powered submarine carrying a nuclear warhead, a nuclear-powered cruise missile equipped with a nuclear warhead, an air-based ballistic missile and the like. At the moment, START III does not cover these systems, ”a senior State Department official told reporters.
Recall that in early February, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, in an interview with Rossiyskaya Gazeta, stated that Russia was ready to “consider in the context of the treaty criteria” part of its new weapons, “at least Vanguard and Sarmat.”
“Everything else does not fall under the restrictions contained in the 2010 agreement, but we are also ready to talk on this subject,” Lavrov said.
At the same time, he clarified that "it is necessary to discuss any issues related to new types of weapons exclusively in the context of all factors affecting strategic stability." In particular, he recalled the collapse of the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty, from which the United States withdrew unilaterally.
- US Department of State
- © Mark Wilson / Getty Images / AFP
The Strategic Offensive Arms Reduction Treaty (START III) was signed in 2010, and is currently the only current arms limitation treaty between Russia and the United States. The agreement expires in February 2021.
Earlier, Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov told RIA Novosti that Russia would need months to extend START III. According to him, for this the executive branch of the government should introduce the corresponding initiative for consideration by the Federal Assembly and it should get the approval of both houses of parliament.
" Talking about reluctance"
As Vladimir Bruter, an expert at the International Institute for Humanitarian and Political Studies, notes, the State Department’s latest statement says that "the United States will require a huge number of concessions from Russia in exchange for a signature on the extension of the agreement."
“The American side will no longer go for the automatic extension of START III,” the analyst said in a conversation with RT.
At the same time, Washington’s initiative to create a new agreement and include new types of weapons in Russia, such as Poseidon, Bruther called an attempt to "find a convenient explanation for his reluctance to extend the existing treaty."
“Washington is simply trying to justify itself, referring to the urgency of the extension and the need to introduce new Russian military-industrial complex into the agreement,” the expert said.
According to Valery Garbuzov, director of the US and Canada Institute, the fact that the United States is now calling the terms of the new treaty "speaks of Washington’s reluctance to prolong START III."
“This means that the agreement, most likely, will not be extended by the American side. After all, each condition they put forward requires additional negotiations and efforts, such a process can take many months. Therefore, the statement on the exchange of notes in this vein looks implausible, ”the analyst said in an interview with RT.
Hopeless plan
At the same time, the State Department said that it is also "extremely important" for the United States to "achieve China's participation" in the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty.
“We are optimistic about the possibility of a dialogue with both Russia and China, as well as the prospects for a transition from a bilateral to a trilateral format, the result of which will be the agreement of the type we are striving for on behalf of President Trump. In general, we approach the matter with cautious optimism and really hope that in the near future we will be able to establish a dialogue not with just one, but with both sides, ”said the representative of the foreign ministry.
He also said that "Beijing benefits from limiting the capabilities of Moscow and Washington by the strategic arms control regime."
“Now he is moving towards a twofold increase in his arsenal over the next few years. And the point here is not only in numbers (despite the fact that it is growing at a very noticeable pace), but also in the variety of systems capable of delivering both nuclear and non-nuclear weapons to the target, ”the State Department said.
They also recalled that the head of the White House himself is in favor of extending the treaty, provided that the PRC and all “potential threats” from the arms of the next generation are included in it.
- US President Donald Trump
- © Tom Brenner / Reuters
Earlier, Donald Trump announced his intention to develop a new trilateral nuclear agreement between Russia, China and the United States. However, Beijing rejected this idea.
Skeptically, such an initiative of the American leader is also estimated by experts.
According to Vladimir Bruter, “the idea of the American leader is absolutely hopeless” - Beijing is not going to join the START III treaty or enter into a new agreement because it “has a different structure of nuclear forces.”
“Therefore, the PRC in this case is completely consistent in its actions,” the analyst explained.
Vladimir Bruter also emphasized that behind the American proposal to create an alternative to START III "there is no concept of a future treaty."
According to Valery Garbuzov, the United States insists on taking into account the nuclear potential of China, although it is much smaller than the arsenals of Russia and the United States. For this reason, “Trump’s attempts to connect Beijing to the agreement are simply worthless,” the analyst said.
“There is no question of any balance of power here. And a trilateral agreement, even if Beijing agreed to it, would be unfair. Not to mention the fact that multilateral negotiations are much more difficult than bilateral, ”the expert said.
“There will be even less rules”
According to analysts, the refusal to extend START III will hit the global security system.
In early March, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced that he was ready to “discuss with anyone,” including Trump, on the need to prolong the Treaty on Measures to Further Reduce and Limit Strategic Offensive Arms.
“I believe that this is actually a mistake (refusal to renew. - RT ). It is necessary to extend the START III treaty, ”the Russian leader noted.
At the end of February, Vladimir Leontyev, deputy director of the non-proliferation and arms control department of the Russian Foreign Ministry, said that Washington had rejected the offer of the Russian side to hold a meeting of lawyers to discuss issues related to the extension of the agreement.
At the same time, Russia, for its part, at the highest level has repeatedly proposed to the United States to begin negotiations on the extension of the agreement. Vladimir Putin also emphasized that without START III "there will be nothing at all in the world that holds back the arms race."
In addition, the need to extend this agreement is being announced throughout the world, including in the United States.
So, in January, the Committee on Foreign Affairs of the European Parliament, in a draft of its report, called on Moscow and Washington to resume arms control negotiations. According to the European MPs, the extension of START III would help maintain strategic stability.
The extension of this agreement was made by the UN Secretary General Anthony Guterres, as well as German Foreign Minister Heiko Maas, who called the agreement "critically important."
Representatives of the Democratic Party made such an appeal in the United States - Eliot Engel, Chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee of the House of Representatives, and Robert Menendez, Senior Democrat of the Senate Foreign Affairs Committee. The corresponding letter they sent to US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo.
As noted by Vladimir Bruter, the non-renewal of START III will lead to the fact that the United States "will begin to invest in new types of weapons, as well as after the collapse of the INF Treaty."
“An arms race, the signs of which we can see now, will have even fewer rules. This will adversely affect the security level, ”Bruter said.
- US military
- © Flickr / US Air Force
The analyst also predicted that Washington would “pull” with the signing of the agreement until September 2020.
“At the same time, the United States will continue to offer Russia prolongation terms, which are simply unprofitable for it,” said Bruter.
Valery Garbuzov, in turn, said that if the agreement ceases to operate, "even those remnants of the world security system that remain" will collapse.
“However, nothing new will be created in return, and the world will again come to a situation similar to the beginning of the Cold War,” the expert concluded.