“Unresolved issues”: what could prevent the US from withdrawing troops from Afghanistan

Colonel Sonny Leggett, US Spokesman for Afghanistan (USFOR-A), announced the withdrawal of US troops from the republic. According to him, within 135 days the number of military personnel in the country will be reduced to 8.6 thousand people.

“The US military in Afghanistan is on track to achieve the indicated number of troops, while maintaining the necessary potential,” said Leggett.

The withdrawal of the American contingent in Afghanistan is envisaged by the deal that Washington concluded on February 29 with the radical Taliban movement * in the capital of Qatar, Doha. The United States intends to completely curtail its military presence in the republic within 14 months. In turn, the Taliban have committed themselves to stop attacks on US facilities and the country's national defense and security forces.

In addition, between the Taliban and the regular army of Afghanistan, an exchange of prisoners should take place according to the “all for all” formula. Kabul agreed to release five thousand militants from prisons, and the radicals - one thousand captured military personnel.

At the time of the withdrawal of troops, the Pentagon reserved the right to support government units, as well as conduct operations against Al-Qaeda ** and the branch of the Islamic State *** in Afghanistan, known as the Vilayat Khorasan.

"The situation did not get better"

In an interview with RT, Director of the Center for the Study of Modern Afghanistan, Omar Nessar, noted that the US deal with the Taliban is replete with conflicting points and “complex obligations”. According to him, the United States will not fulfill all the conditions of the agreements.

“The US is not going to follow everything that is written in the agreement with the Taliban and, most likely, will eventually leave it. There are too many conflicting conditions in the transaction. In addition, the agreement with the Taliban conflicts with other agreements that the US previously concluded with the government of Afghanistan, ”Nessar argues.

• Taliban in Nangarhar Province
• Reuters
• © Parwiz

A few days after the conclusion of the deal, hostilities resumed in Afghanistan. On March 2, AFP, citing Taliban spokesman Zabihulla Mujahid, said the radicals were ready to launch military operations against the regular army, but would not attack international forces.

On March 4, Leggett, on his Twitter page, said that the United States fired from the air at Taliban positions in Helmand province. He called the force action a “defensive strike” in response to an Islamist attack on one of the checkpoints of the government army.

The colonel said that this was the first attack by American forces on the Taliban in the past 11 days. According to Leggett, the United States is “committed to peace,” but “responsible” for the security of its “partners.” He also rebuked the radicals for not fulfilling their obligations to end hostilities.

According to the Afghan authorities, in the first three days of March, the Taliban launched 76 attacks on government positions. On his Twitter account, a spokesman for the National Security Council of Afghanistan, Javid Faisal, said the republic’s regular army responded to all attacks and killed 85 militants.

As the director of the MGIMO Analytical Center Andrei Kazantsev explained in a conversation with RT, the Taliban are not a monolithic grouping. Disparate formations operate in Afghanistan, which may not be subordinate to the nominal central leadership of the movement.

In an RT commentary, orientalist Dmitry Verkhoturov stated that the decision to ceasefire in Afghanistan could well not have reached the individual field commanders. He also drew attention to the hostility that persists between the Afghan military and the Taliban.

“The Taliban have unresolved issues with the Afghan military, and therefore the Americans are defending government forces. Despite a certain positive effect from the deal, it is too early to talk about improving the situation, ”Verkhoturov said.

Experts believe that the situation with the ceasefire is significantly complicated by incidents of attacks on the leadership of Afghanistan and contradictions within the country's ruling elite.

On March 6, unknown armed men attacked participants in a memorial ceremony in Kabul on the anniversary of the death of the founder of the Shiite Hizb-i-Wahdat party, Abdula Ali Mazari. Among the guests was Prime Minister Abdullah Abdullah. The victims of the attack were more than 30 people, the head of government was not injured. The Islamic State claimed responsibility for the attack.

• Ashraf Ghani at the inauguration in Kabul
• Reuters
• © Mohammad Ismail

On March 9, two rockets were fired at the militants in the presidential palace in Kabul at the time of the inauguration of Ashraf Ghani, who, according to the National Electoral Commission, won the presidential election last year. No one died as a result of the incident. The responsibility for the attack also took over the IG.

Simultaneously with Ghani, the oath of the president was taken by Abdullah Abdullah, his main rival in the last election. The Prime Minister is demanding the annulment of the results announced by the election commission. Both politicians represent two influential clans in the country and intend to continue to fight for the presidency.

The holding of two parallel presidential inaugurations has already caused discontent in Washington. US Secretary of State Michael Pompeo emphasized that the United States will not tolerate dual power in Afghanistan. At the same time, the head of the State Department did not talk about his political preferences in the dispute between Ghani and Abdullah.

Omar Nessar believes that the split in the leadership of Afghanistan is a serious challenge for the United States. In his opinion, the conflict within the ruling elite of the republic is, among other things, a threat of compliance with the deal with the Taliban.

“Despite the almost 20-year stay in Afghanistan, Americans have little regard for the specifics of the country. Mistakes were made due to which the situation with public administration and security remains extremely difficult and without visible prospects for improvement. The USA was not able to achieve most of the tasks set in Afghanistan, although they do not want to admit it, ”Nessar stated.

"Election PR"

The troops of the United States and its allies have been fighting in Afghanistan since 2001. Washington sought to punish al-Qaeda militants and their leader, a native of Saudi Arabia, Osama bin Laden, for the terrorist attacks on the United States on September 11, 2001. In May 2011, "terrorist number one" was killed by US special forces in the Pakistani city of Abbottabad.

One of the consequences of the operation of the American troops was the overthrow of the Taliban regime in November 2001. The advent of the new government in Kabul, with US support, turned into a guerrilla warfare against the international coalition and government forces, and then a full-fledged armed civil confrontation. About 2.4 thousand American soldiers became victims of the Afghan campaign.

• US 181st Infantry Regiment
• © Flickr / US Army

The US Army’s periodic attacks on radical positions and efforts to strengthen government forces did not bring tangible military-political results to the Pentagon. The Taliban currently control a significant part of Afghanistan.

A report by the American Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) last year said the United States was unable to "correctly assess the length and intensity of the conflict in Afghanistan."

Analysts noted that Washington decided to build the republic’s statehood according to the Western model, which caused opposition from almost the entire Afghan society. Another negative factor the authors of the document called "pride, due to the status of a superpower with military superiority."

Dmitry Verkhoturov stressed that the United States is bogged down in the Afghan conflict. The expert is convinced that a complete withdrawal of American troops should not be expected. The analyst linked the deal with the Taliban with the presidential campaign, which started in the United States.

“Trump promised to return the soldiers home, but the United States, of course, will not leave, because they are interested in maintaining a certain degree of control over Afghanistan. Without an army, this is unrealistic. I explain the informational noise about the troop withdrawal, which is supported by Trump and the Pentagon, with pre-election PR and a product for domestic consumption, ”summarized Verkhoturov.

* "Taliban" - the organization was recognized as terrorist by the decision of the Supreme Court of the Russian Federation of February 14, 2003.

** Al-Qaeda - the organization was recognized as terrorist by decision of the Supreme Court of the Russian Federation of February 14, 2003

*** “Islamic State” (ISIS, ISIS) - the organization was recognized as terrorist by decision of the Supreme Court of the Russian Federation of December 29, 2014.