The leadership of the ruling party "Servant of the People" does not exclude the possibility that they can find a replacement for the Minister of the Interior Arsen Avakov. This was in an interview with television channel "24" said the deputy head of the presidential faction Yevgeny Kravchuk. According to her, in the future, the portfolio of the Minister of Internal Affairs may be received by Deputy Avakova.

According to the website of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Ukraine, the minister has six deputies: Sergey Yarovoy, Tatyana Kovalchuk, Sergey Goncharov, Ekaterina Pavlichenko, Anton Gerashchenko and Alexander Gogilashvili.

“We decided this way: we will propose a deputy, and if this person grows up and we understand that he can replace the minister, then there are no eternal people anywhere. Previous dismissals are evidence of this, ”said Kravchuk, referring to the recent resignation of the government of Alexei Goncharuk.

The deputy head of the "Servant of the People" faction emphasized that the Ministry of Internal Affairs is a "complex department", so a person with experience should occupy the chair of the Minister of Internal Affairs. At the same time, Kravchuk noted that today the President of Ukraine Vladimir Zelensky does not have a suitable candidate for the post of head of the Ministry of Internal Affairs.

  • Arsen Avakov
  • © Ministry of Internal Affairs of Ukraine

“There may not be a second chance, because it is the safety of people. This is 300 thousand personnel (MVD. - RT ). There are questions to Mr. Avakov: on the police, and, obviously, on other points. Obviously - and this is true - there is still no candidate from Vladimir Zelensky who could fully guarantee that everything will be fine, ”Kravchuk said.

A RT source in The Servant of the People emphasized that today there is no unity in the party on Avakov’s prospects. According to the interlocutor, part of the deputy corps of the presidential fraction is ready to send the Minister of Internal Affairs to resign, "but not everyone shares this opinion."

“Avakov became a very influential minister and got a lot of connections. This is not like the environment of the president. Nevertheless, there is still no united front in the “Servant of the people” against Avakov, ”the representative of the presidential party in the Verkhovna Rada stated in an interview with RT.

“From a position of strength”

Arsen Avakov is the only Ukrainian post-Maidan minister who retained his post in the current cabinet of Ukraine. He received the chair of the head of the Ministry of Internal Affairs on February 27, 2014, when the Verkhovna Rada appointed Arseniy Yatsenyuk as the country's prime minister.

In April 2016, Yatsenyuk resigned, giving way to Vladimir Groisman. Under the new head of government, most of the ministers in the cabinet of the predecessor changed, but Avakov retained his portfolio.

The Minister of the Interior remained at his post under Zelensky. In August 2019, after the elections to the Verkhovna Rada, Avakov retained his seat in the new government. On March 4, 2020, Prime Minister Aleksey Goncharuk resigned. The head of government was Denis Shmygal. With him, almost all the ministers changed, but not Avakov.

Avakov is a native of Baku. His family moved to Ukraine in 1966. In 1988, he graduated from Kharkov Polytechnic University with a degree in automated control systems. In the 1990s, Avakov was engaged in business, and in the early 2000s he began a political career.

On February 4, 2005, by decree of the President of Ukraine Viktor Yushchenko, Avakov was appointed head of the Kharkiv Regional State Administration. Five years later, he was relieved of this post. In 2012, he was elected to the Verkhovna Rada according to the lists of the party "Fatherland" by Yulia Tymoshenko.

Before the early parliamentary elections in October 2014 Avakov, Yatsenyuk, Alexander Turchinov - former acting President of Ukraine and former Secretary of the National Security Council - created the Popular Front party, which ultimately won with a result of 22.14%. True, less than a year later the rating of this political force collapsed to 1.6%.

Experts interviewed by RT noted that the security situation in Ukraine under Avakov did not improve. As a result of the coup d'etat and the war in Donbass, tens of thousands of firearms remained in the hands of “activists” and nationalists who passed through the ATO. At the same time, the Ministry of Internal Affairs does not impede the activities of the vast majority of radical groups in the country.

“Avakov is known as a person who is used to solving many issues from a position of strength. He also “became famous” for his belligerent position in the Donbass and for taking control of almost the entire Ukrainian nationalist camp, ”Vladimir Shapovalov, deputy director of the Institute of History and Politics of the Moscow State Pedagogical University, said in an interview with RT.

An RT source in the European Solidarity party noted that the police almost never interfere in street riots that are “often beneficial” to Avakov. Thus, the head of the Ministry of Internal Affairs maintains a certain degree of tension in Ukrainian society, which allows him to remain the “necessary minister” for over six years.

In addition to controlling the "street", relations with the oligarch Igor Kolomoisky are considered another key to Avakov’s political longevity. In May 2019, in an interview with Ukrainian Truth, the oligarch called the Minister of the Interior “an old friend”, and described his relationship with him as a “military community”.

In a conversation with RT, the director of the Kiev Center for Political Studies and Conflictology, Mikhail Pogrebinsky, said that Avakov also enjoys the location of certain influential circles in the West. In particular, the expert assumes that France’s support is playing in favor of the Minister of the Interior, with which major contracts for the supply of Airbus helicopters and the construction of OCEA FPB 98 boats had previously been concluded with the filing of the Interior Minister.

“I think Avakov is helped by influential lobbyists in France, but in general he is an autonomously acting player in Ukrainian politics. This is not to say that his career went smoothly. For example, for some time (2011-2012) Avakov was in Italy because of criminal cases brought against him. But in 2014, he actually became the beneficiary of the Maidan, ”Pogrebinsky recalled.

In a dependent position

A RT source in the Batkivshchyna party called Avakov "the second person in Ukraine." According to him, the Minister of Internal Affairs "helped to win the election of Vladimir Zelensky" by ordering to suppress the bribery of voters by supporters of Petro Poroshenko.

“The Interior Minister has a strong political position, despite the high crime rate in Ukraine. In recent years, he remains the second person in the country. He is friends with Kolomoisky and made a great contribution to Zelensky’s victory in the presidential election - the police carefully watched so that voters were not bribed, ”the source told RT.

Mikhail Pogrebinsky noted that after receiving the post of Interior Minister Avakov was in conflict with the ex-president of Ukraine, actively using the influence of the Popular Front in the Verkhovna Rada. Poroshenko was forced to reckon with the ambitions of the Minister of Internal Affairs and did not try to dismiss him.

“Before the presidential election, Avakov went into open conflict with Poroshenko. This contributed to the fact that he retained the post of head of the Ministry of Internal Affairs under Zelensky. However, now he is held in office thanks to the influence on the radicals. He is the guarantor that the nationalists will be under control. And therefore Zelensky does not remove it, ”explained Pogrebinsky.

According to experts, Avakov has a great influence on the situation in Ukraine and can quite successfully conflict with the office of the president of the country. So, in September last year, the Minister of Internal Affairs stated his categorical disagreement with the initiative of the environment of Zelensky to reassign the National Guard to the president. At the moment, this type of troops remains part of the Ministry of Internal Affairs.

  • Building soldiers of the National Guard of Ukraine
  • © Ministry of Internal Affairs of Ukraine

Experts believe that Avakov’s influence is evidenced by the fact that he went to Paris with Zelensky in December in Norman format and commented on the media’s progress and results.

“Zelensky is burdened by dependence on Avakov. I think that the president really has a real interest in replacing him and putting the Ministry of Internal Affairs completely under his control. However, I don’t know what are the chances of making this idea a reality, ”says Mikhail Pogrebinsky.

Vladimir Shapovalov called Avakov “one of the most cunning, quirky, cynical statesmen of Ukraine”, who knows how to defend his personal interests and change his views depending on the political context. The expert believes that the scale of Avakov’s influence is comparable to the weight that Ukrainian oligarchs have. In this regard, the removal of the head of the Ministry of Internal Affairs may become an impossible task for Zelensky.

“I think Zelensky is not able to control Avakov. Moreover, the President of Ukraine is clearly afraid of the Minister of Internal Affairs, realizing what resources he has. Zelensky does not even allow himself to criticize Avakov, although it is obvious that the current situation annoys him. And, most likely, Zelensky will not be able to remove Avakov from the post of head of the Ministry of Internal Affairs in the near future, ”Shapovalov predicts.