The escalation of Ethiopia and Egypt's options ... questions and answers about the Renaissance Dam crisis

Why did Ethiopia refrain from signing the Renaissance Dam agreement in the United States in the last moments? Is there a real dispute between Addis Ababa and Washington in this regard? Can Ethiopia go ahead with filling the dam despite Egyptian objections?

Is the recent meeting of Egyptian President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi with senior leaders of the armed forces a message of an Egyptian threat that the use of force is on the table to protect Egypt's national security? Can Cairo really resort to the military option in light of its internal situation and the regional situation in general?

If the military option is not currently possible, then what option can Egypt resort to politically and diplomatically? Will these paths bear fruit in light of Ethiopia's escalation of its tone and its assertion that it will start filling the dam’s reservoir within months, and that there is no force that can prevent the construction of the dam and filling it with water that Ethiopia says are matters that lie at the heart of its sovereignty over its land and water, is complete.

Ethiopia explained its absence from the Washington meeting a few days ago, during which it was supposed to sign an agreement on filling the Renaissance Dam and operating it with Egypt and Sudan under the auspices of the World Bank and the United States, and said in an official statement that "the Ethiopian negotiating team will not participate in the meeting, because it did not complete After consulting with stakeholders inside the country. "

The Ethiopian Foreign Ministry said that the draft agreement signed by Egypt in initials in Washington is not the outcome of negotiations nor the technical and political discussions of the three countries.

She later announced that she would not participate in any negotiations on the Renaissance Dam "that would harm the national interests of the country," noting that it would start filling the dam lake on the Blue Nile with the completion of construction operations, and stressed that there is no force on the face of the earth that can stop this project. .

It is noted that the statement of the Ethiopian Foreign Ministry expressed "disappointment" with the statement of the US Treasury Department, which opposed the start of filling the dam without concluding an agreement between the three countries. It seemed clear that Addis Ababa was not seriously expecting from the American mediator, who pushed for a deal on the crisis, and therefore sought in the middle of the negotiations that lasted about five rounds of asylum in South Africa as an alternative mediator.

This was also shown in statements by Ethiopian Foreign Minister Guido Andragashiu in which he questioned the role of the United States and the World Bank in the negotiation process, saying that their role should be limited to oversight only.

But Ambassador Abdullah Al-Ashaal, a former assistant to the Egyptian Foreign Minister, sees the path of the crisis since its inception as an Ethiopian-Israeli-American conspiracy aimed at depriving Egypt of its share in the waters of the Nile, according to previous statements by Al-Jazeera Net, which is echoed by activists on the communication sites, stressing that what appears to be unlike Ethiopia An American is only a "charade" whose goal is to gain time and prolong negotiations until the construction and filling of the dam are complete, so that Egypt remains before the de facto situation.

Al-Ashaal surprised, in a recent article, of Washington's supervision of the negotiations through the Treasury Secretary, who has nothing to do with the technical aspects of the negotiations, and he saw that Washington is claiming that it is pressuring Ethiopia until it deceives Egypt and continues to wait for mercy from the United States until it is surprised by the filling of the dam.

Ethiopian threat
It is noticeable that the recent Ethiopian escalation involved an explicit threat to start filling the dam within months. The Minister of Water and Energy Silesi Baqli said that the dam is in its final stages, and that its filling will start in next July, and that power generation will start in February 2021. This means that it will go ahead with its escalation, ignoring the Egyptian objections and the American support for the Egyptian position in this regard?

Egypt does not oppose filling the dam reservoirs, but is opposed to completing them in one go, because it will necessarily reduce their share of water sharply for several years, which directly affects the millions of Egyptians who depend on the Nile water as a main source of drinking and irrigation.

The agreement concluded in March 2015 between the leaders of Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan in its fifth article, stipulates the need to agree on the rules for filling and operating the dam before starting filling, in order to prevent any damages to the downstream countries.

One of the most sticking points between the two countries is filling the dam reservoir, which has a capacity of 74 million cubic meters of water. Egypt says that the dam threatens its share of the estimated water by 55.5 billion cubic meters, on which it depends more than 90% in drinking and agriculture.

Egypt options
After the recent Ethiopian escalation, President Al-Sisi met with senior leaders of the armed forces, and stressed "the need to continue to show the highest levels of caution and caution and combat readiness, up to the highest levels of readiness to implement any tasks entrusted to them to protect Egypt's national security, in light of the current challenges that ripple the region ".

Some people saw in this meeting and what came out of it, according to a statement of the spokesman for the Presidency of the Republic, a message to Ethiopia - although it was not mentioned in the statement - that the option of force may be proposed in response to the Ethiopian intransigence, which was echoed by some of the regime's supporters, including journalists, politicians and politicians through Their pages and accounts on social media.

But it seems that resorting to the military option is risky, as there are facts and facts that will greatly affect any Egyptian decision regarding the use of military force, including those related to geography, politics, and military capabilities, and the intertwined regional relations and internal problems of Egypt and Ethiopia.

And if the military option is excluded, Cairo may resort to using the remaining political and diplomatic pressure cards it has, perhaps the most prominent - according to experts and analysts - to cut negotiations with Ethiopia and withdraw from the principles agreement signed in Khartoum in 2015, and perhaps go to the Security Council and international arbitration to resolve the conflict By decision, and to resort to African organizations concerned with such crises, such as the African Peace and Security Council and the African Union.

Ambassador Abdullah Al-Ashaal suggests that Egypt seek the assistance of a new team of ministers specialized in this file with a new vision, as well as the immediate and urgent start of a national plan to rationalize the use of the Nile water and all water sources, and search for new groundwater sources and benefit from rain water.