Democratic primaries: the Biden-Sanders duel now installed

The democratic establishment can breathe: the specter of a victory of Bernie Sanders in the democratic primary has clearly moved away, Wednesday March 4, in the aftermath of the important success of Joe Biden during "Super Tuesday".

In great difficulty there are still ten days, the candidacy of the former vice-president of Barack Obama is now on the rise. The withdrawal and support of former adversaries Pete Buttigieg and Amy Klobuchar has united the forces of the moderate wing of the Democratic Party. For the latter, Joe Biden is the only candidate capable of defeating Donald Trump in the presidential election in November. It was therefore urgent to block Bernie Sanders and his more radical proposals. And with the poor performance of Michael Bloomberg - who withdrew from the race on Wednesday - and Elizabeth Warren, the face-to-face meeting between two opposing ideological proposals is well and truly established.

>> Read: "Super Tuesday": the incredible resurrection of Joe Biden, yet politically dead

"On the one hand, Joe Biden embodies a social-liberalism which has dominated the democratic party since Bill Clinton and which is made of compromise with liberal capitalism, weak regulation and gradualism in the exercise of power - we do not promise too much and we are trying to slowly reform society in a progressive way, analyzes the historian and specialist of the United States, Corentin Sellin, on France 24. And in front of that, we have Bernie Sanders who has brought together all the leftist traditions of the United States - the Rooseveltian left and the populist left - and which on the contrary promotes a model of radical transformation. "

The ideological divide within the Democratic Party is clear. The results of the primaries so far show it very clearly: Joe Biden can count on the African-American electorate, the elderly and the middle classes, while Bernie Sanders can boast of the support of Hispanic voters and young people. One represents the historic electorate of the Democratic Party; the other the new generations of left voters.

The challenge now for the Democrats for the rest of the #primaire: to argue, on an ideological divide that has never been so clear between social-liberalism of #Biden and democratic socialism of #Sanders but without tearing each other apart before #Trump. https://t.co/kJWGtuRK17

Towards a duel that extends to the Democratic convention

"Bernie Sanders' proposals, such as free health coverage for all or free education, tend to scare older people who are attached to individual freedoms and who prefer progressive rather than radical changes, explains Jean-Éric Branaa, teacher-researcher at Paris-2 University and specialist in the United States, contacted by France 24. On the other hand, Hispanics have less of this culture and young people are more idealistic and therefore more quick to want to fight inequalities. "

Between the continuity of the democratic ideology proposed by Joe Biden and the radical change of course promised by Bernie Sanders, will a trend quickly emerge? On the contrary, the conditions seem to have been met for the duel to continue until the Democratic Convention in mid-July in Milwaukee.

After "Super Tuesday", Joe Biden, although in the lead, has only about 450 delegates, against 380 to Bernie Sanders, according to American media. However, it takes 1 991 to secure the nomination: there is still a long way to go.

"The scenario of a prolonged face-to-face is gaining strength today, since we are going to have two neck-and-neck candidates who will each find it difficult to arrive at the magic number of absolute majority of delegates in June ", confirms Corentin Sellin.

Appear as the candidate most likely to beat Trump

But beyond the program of the two favorites among the Democrats still in the running for the nomination, the main issue will be to appear as the candidate most likely to beat Donald Trump in November.

The unexpected victories of Joe Biden in Massachusetts and Minnesota in particular, where polls conducted last week gave Bernie Sanders the winner, show that a certain number of voters were convinced by the dynamic of rallying in progress among the social liberals .

"The story of the Biden clan has been extraordinary for the past 48 hours, said Jean-Éric Branaa. The idea of ​​the family reunion fueled by the supporters of Pete Buttigieg, Amy Klobuchar and Beto O'Rourke is very exciting for the voters Democrats. "

Faced with this dynamic, which should be further reinforced by the withdrawal and support, notably financial, provided by Michael Bloomberg, Bernie Sanders will try to convince that the Democratic Party will not be able to beat Donald Trump with half measures and a candidate with a moderate profile similar to that of Hillary Clinton, defeated in 2016.

"Bernie Sanders believes that it is necessary to change the program and speak to other voters: in particular he wants to win back the white popular voters of the industrial states who switched to Trump four years ago," underlines Corentin Sellin.

With this in mind, the March 10 poll in Michigan will serve as a test. This workers' state, stronghold of the American automobile industry and one of the famous "swing states" during the presidential election, had voted in favor of the current president of the United States in 2016. Suffice to say that the credibility of Bernie Sanders would be greatly affected if Joe Biden were to finally win next week in this key state.

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