Between Erdogan and Putin ... Will the Moscow Summit succeed in formulating new understandings?

Zaher Albik-Ankara

In light of the strained relations between Russia and Turkey after the Turkish bombing round on the sites of the Syrian regime and Moscow's warning to Ankara against its inability to ensure the safety of Turkish aircraft over Idlib, the upcoming Turkish Presidents Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Russian Vladimir Putin will come tomorrow, Thursday.

And the recent developments in Idlib showed that, unlike Turkey, Russia had eased after the two countries entered the paths of Astana and Sochi, and their understanding on a number of appeals for calm in Idlib in particular, the last of which was on January 8.

The Turkish President confirmed his departure to Moscow today to meet his Russian counterpart, in order to discuss developments in Idlib. "I hope there, Putin will take necessary measures such as a ceasefire, and find a solution to this issue," he said.

For his part, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov confirmed that Putin and Erdogan will hold talks on Syria in Moscow on Thursday, but said that his country has not changed its position regarding Syria, and it is committed as it has always been to support the Syrian government's fight against opposition fighters.

Ankara's demands
In this context, the leader of the ruling Justice and Development Party, Rasul Tosson, told Al-Jazeera Net that his country wants from the summit the withdrawal of the Syrian regime forces to the borders of the Sochi Agreement, a ceasefire and Russia's restraint of the regime forces, stressing the need for President Putin to pledge to abide by the terms of the Sochi agreement.

"Turkey also wants to activate the decisions to reduce the escalation, and to activate the Constitutional Committee, which was obstructed by members of the Syrian regime because it does not want a political solution," the former Turkish parliament member added.

Tosson expressed his lack of optimism about the success of the summit, "because the Russian side considers the moderate opposition terrorist organizations and rejects our demands to stop targeting them, which contradicts the old recognition of the moderate opposition guaranteed by Turkey."

And he did not rule out - at the same time - the consensus between the two presidents, because the close relations that bind the two countries in the fields of defense industrialization, energy, tourism and inter-trade, as well as Ankara's membership in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) may lead to the concession of the Russian side.

Spring Shield
For his part, political analyst close to the Turkish government, Hamzah Tekin, said that President Erdo سيan will participate in the summit with his hand on the paper of the spring armor military operation that he will place on the table.

"The summit tomorrow will be complicated, and the ball is in the Russian, not Turkish, stadium, because President Erdogan will ask President Putin to force the Syrian regime to withdraw from the areas of de-escalation," Takin told Al Jazeera Net.

"Reaching new understandings is also a difficult task, because Turkey sticks to its demands in front of the Russian side, and its relinquishment of these demands is not a simple matter because it relates to Turkish national security, which has become in danger," he added, noting that Idlib for Turkey is a matter of national security, and thus concession in this field will have Negative consequences for Turkey itself.

It is expected that the summit will not be concluded with understandings, thus increasing the momentum of the Turkish military operation in Idlib on the ground and from the air, especially as his country has demonstrated military superiority in this field, believing that Russia will not intervene strongly to fight alongside the Syrian regime against Turkey, if it would enter militarily against Turkey It would have entered since the first day of the Turkish military operation.

Agreement and understandings
But the researcher on Turkish affairs, Saeed Al-Haj, disagreed with his predecessors by saying that the opportunity of Erdogan Putin's summit to reach an agreement is greater than the chances of all previous meetings and talks.

He added to Al-Jazeera Net, "which supports the arrival of the two sides to understandings: the start of the Turkish spring armor process, the regime retreated in part, in addition to the relatively calm Russian position, and the nature of the mutual statements between the two parties, as well as the high-level delegation preparing for the summit."

The researcher suggests that the agreement would include, in the event of its occurrence, a retreat by the Syrian regime from some areas it had recently controlled, but without the return of the opposition to it, either by a single Russian or Russian-Turkish administration, as well as securing Turkish control points, the establishment of a de facto safe zone, and opening roads International.

He explained that this agreement may not last very long, but it will be stronger than before, and we will defuse the crisis between Turkey and Russia, stop the Turkish process and fulfill the demands of the two parties to some extent.

On the other hand, the Turkish newspaper "Milliyet" reported that if the two presidents fail to reach an agreement, Ankara "may expand the circle of Operation Spring Shield in northern Syria, until the Syrian regime retracts to the borders of the Sochi Agreement" and will move towards the issue of using its aircraft to the restricted airspace in the north Syrian.

Despite the existing dispute, the two sides seem far from a direct confrontation, as the Turkish President stated that he has no problem with Russia in Syria, at a time when the Russian President said that his country "does not plan to go to war with anyone."